Box office preview: ‘Night Swim’ continues the now annual tradition of kicking off year with horror

As mentioned in last week’s preview, the month of January is probably going to be a bit quieter with not that many big movies, as theatergoers mainly will be catching up on holiday and Oscar fare. We do have one new wide release this weekend, though. Read on for Gold Derby’s box office preview.

Jason Blum‘s Blumhouse and James Wan‘s Atomic Monster had such a huge hit when Universal released their horror film “M3GAN” the first week of January in 2023, that the same team has reunited for this weekend’s new high-concept entry, “Night Swim.”

Starring Wyatt Russell (“Monarch: Legacy of Monsters”) and Oscar nominee Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”), the film involves a family buying a new suburban home with a swimming pool that seems to have healing properties, but only at first. After a few days, the family realizes that there’s something far darker possessing the pool and terrorizing anyone that goes swimming.

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The film is co-written and directed by Bryce McGuire, who previously co-directed a short film of the same name that’s been expanded in a similar way as Andy Muschetti‘s “Mama” (2013) and David F. Sandberg‘s “Lights Out” (2016). “Mama” opened with $28.4 million, opening later that January and grossing $148 million worldwide, while “Lights Out” opened with $21.7 million in a summer release. Oddly, both of those directors went on to direct DC superhero films for Warner Bros, but their earlier horror films were proof that high-concept horror can do quite well with younger audiences. (2022’s “Smile” is another great example.)

As mentioned above, “M3GAN” was an enormous hit for Universal to start off 2023 with $30.4 million on its way to $95.2 million in North America and $181.1 million globally, as word-of-mouth kept it going as counter-programming to James Cameron‘s “Avatar: The Way of Water.” Other horror movies that have done well kicking off the year include Sony’s “Insidious the Last Key” – another collaboration between Blum and Wan as producers – which opened with $29.6 million the first weekend of January 2018 but only made $67.7 million domestically. Sony also kicked off 2019 with “Escape Room,” which opened with $18.2 million and grossed $57 million domestically and $155.6 million globally, leading to a sequel.

At this point, it’s fairly known that cast and star power generally doesn’t have that much effect on business for horror movies, although the quality of casting on this one certainly will help with the quality of reviews and word-of-mouth. It’s really about the film’s premise and the concept of a “haunted swimming pool” that will get younger moviegoers interested in seeing this on their first weekend back at school. I’d expect “Night Swim” to bring in $18 million plus and possibly even more than $20 million this weekend to take first place.

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Of the returning movies, it’s likely that “Wonka” will take second place, while “Migration” should take advantage of the lack of family films to take third place, followed by “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” and “The Color Purple.”

There are a couple smaller action films being released into select cities this weekend (as well as on VOD), including Xavier Gen‘s “Mayhem!” starring Nassim Lyes as Sam, an ex-convict who accidentally kills someone. When he flees to Thailand to go into hiding, he ends up being pulled back into the world of crime that requires him to take vengeance on those who won’t let him get out of that life.

Also, Aaron Eckhart stars in Renny (“Die Hard 2”) Harlin‘s action film, “The Bricklayer,” as an ex-CIA operative who is reactivated when the agency is being attacked by a rogue insurgent. Also starring Nina Dobrev and Clifton Collins, Jr, this will get a very limited release on Friday, and probably will end up on VOD quite soon.

As if still having Michael Mann‘s “Ferrari” in theaters isn’t enough for racing fans, Lionsgate will give Stefano Mordini‘s racing movie “Race for Glory: Audi vs. Lancia” (formerly called “2 Win”) into theaters, covering the rivalry at the 1983 Rally Wold Championships between German and Italian teams. Daniel Brühl, who previously starred in Ron Howard‘s racing movie “Rush,” stars along with Riccardo Scamarcio.

Check back on Sunday to see whether “Night Swim” begins the year on a high note.

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