Mets Offseason Outlook Part III: Finding Relief Pitching Vol. 1
The Mets have done a lot this offseason to shore up the bottom half of their bullpen, and with Edwin Díaz returning, their back end should be vastly improved as well. While Stearns and Co have mainly focused on under-the-radar, low-risk moves, the sheer quantity of guys should bring a larger level of certainty to the Mets bullpen. The two guys who will ultimately bypass the Mets bullpen competition will be Jorge López and Michael Tonkin.
López, who at his best is an all-star level closer, will compete for high-leverage innings during spring and even throughout the 2024 season. Tonkin is a solid mop-up guy, who will mainly pitch in what is now considered “B games”, games in which one team is up by 4-5 runs. Having a high-upside guy like Lopez on a small guaranteed contract and Tonkin whose role is becoming more and more important for teams to fill out a bullpen with, are both solid, if unspectacular moves.
The López move working out is also predicated on the Mets staff being able to fix him. López has been one of the more mercurial relievers over the last few seasons. His arsenal is elite, yet command and overall performance have eluded him for long periods. His main issue has been his plant foot, which is what DÍaz struggled with for his first couple of seasons in New York before breaking out. An inconsistent landing spot can undo both command and movement, especially on sinkers, which tend to flatten out as opposed to sink when your plant foot lands astray. Jeremy Hefner nipped Diaz’s issue in the bud, and if he can achieve similar results with López, he may be the Mets best option outside of Diaz.
The plethora of guys who’ve been brought in to compete this spring are far from locks to secure bullpen spots. The likes of Austin Adams, Cole Sulser, Kyle Crick, Andre Scrubb, Yohan Ramirez, Cam Robinson and Victor Castaneda will all be allowed to latch onto the team this March. Each of them provides their unique angle, pitch, or delivery, which will allow the Mets to provide first-year manager Carlos Mendoza with a wide variety of arms to fill out his bullpen. While some of these guys will not be able to be kept if they don’t make the team, a handful of them can be kept and will make an impact on the team even if they do not break camp with them in April.
The aforementioned slew of arms will compete with the incumbent talent inherited by Stearns. Guys like Drew Smith, Phil Bickford, Reed Garrett, Sean Reid-Foley and Josh Walker will have to prove themselves to the Mets’ new front-office personnel to save their roster spots.
That being said, the Mets currently have four players penciled in for bullpen jobs this coming season. Diaz, Brooks Raley, Lopez, and Tonkin all seem to be locked into the Mets’ 2024 plans. The backside of the bullpen will be fun to watch in spring training, yet it is still incumbent on the Mets to add at least one more high-leverage arm and maybe even one more guy to fully equip the bullpen for the 2024 season.
The list of players I think the Mets would be interested in does not include big names like David Bednar, Emmanuel Clase, or any other top-tier closers, as I do not see the Mets parting with their prospects at this point. The list of guys will instead consist of many free agents, plus a few interesting trade candidates.
Shintaro Fujinami, Photo by Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports
The less heralded of the Japanese starters who came to the US last winter, Fujinami had an up-and-down season, ultimately finding a home in the Orioles bullpen. His stuff is downright elite, yet his inability to locate has held him back so far in his one-year stint in the MLB. Fujinami is your typical boom-or-bust free agent. He could be one of the nastiest relievers next year and could also be out of the league by August. While it’s hard to pin down exactly what Fujinami has to do to improve his command, maybe having a fellow Japanese baseball player around could at least make Fujinami feel more comfortable.
Chapman has had a great career, and now that he’s almost 36, he may be happy to settle for being a setup man for one of the best closers. Chapman was very good last year, his first as a full-time setup man. While he is still wild and has a well above average, he can still strike guys out at an elite rate and still throws very, very hard. There is a chance he will look for a closer opportunity, as he is on the precipice of top-20 all-time in that category. Put simply, there are not many options that make more sense for the back end of a bullpen than Chapman this offseason.
He is another pitcher with excellent stuff, but questionable command. The main question with Hernandez is if he’s attainable. Hernandez, who’d been long miscast as a starter, finally got the opportunity to be a full-time reliever and broke out last season. That being said, after a dominant first half, Hernandez struggled mightily in the second half and his overall numbers took a serious hit. This may be the last time Hernandez could be acquired, as if he builds off last year’s performance, he would require a boatload of prospects to acquire. Therefore, while I doubt he’s available, it would be well worth it to gauge the Royals’ interest in the Mets’ second-tier prospects; otherwise, this deal is probably not happening.
Justin Lawrence, Photo by Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Similar to Hernandez, Lawrence is a good reliever with an upside and lots of team control. Therefore, the Rockies would probably want a lot in return for Lawrence. That being said, the return on Lawrence now would be nothing compared to if he has an all-star season in 2024 as the Rockies closer. That’s why these kind of trades make sense. While you are paying a little extra in terms of present-day value, you are acquiring an asset that has lots of team control, which is value in itself, as well as a very high ceiling. Lawrence throws a nasty sinker from a unique angle and would be a perfect fit as a setup man for Diaz.
This duo of former Astros will be looking to score the biggest possible contract coming off excellent seasons. And while they did perform well last season, they far outperformed their peripherals and will be in for some serious regression toward the mean. I think that signing good, but not great, relievers to large multi-year deals is rarely a worthwhile investment and would, therefore, steer clear of these two.
All you need for proof is Montero, yet Montero is probably better than Neris and Maton and still had a very poor season for the Astros right after signing his new deal. Coming off that poor season, the Astros may be interested in moving Montero, who is still guaranteed about $11M each of the next two seasons. The asking price will be minimal, if any, and this could be a great buy-low opportunity on last year’s big-name setup free agent.
Stanek is one of the peculiar pitchers who’ve thrown upper-90s his whole career while never truly being elite. His K rate has never been great and he’s usually given up too many walks, although he finally suppressed his walks last season. While he’s probably nothing more than a solid middle reliever at this point, he does have some untapped potential and is a useful piece for any bullpen. This kind of move makes a lot of sense, albeit only at a reasonable price.
An interesting sleeper, Brebbia is a criminally underrated free agent. He posted good numbers last year and has great career numbers as well. Like Stanek, he should be reasonably affordable and provide quality and quantity to the middle part of the bullpen and may have a little upside as well.
In Volume 2, we will cover some more names the Mets could be interested in this offseason while trying to fill out the rest of their bullpen.
The post Mets Offseason Outlook Part III: Finding Relief Pitching Vol. 1 first appeared on Metsmerized Online.