Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone are TIED in Critics Choice odds for Best Actress

Emma Stone (“Poor Things”) and Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) will likely be on a collision course throughout the awards season. They’re both poised to win Best Actress at the Golden Globes — Stone for comedy/musical, Gladstone for drama — but at the Critics Choice Awards they go head-to-head and the winner will be … both of them? They’re actually tied in our odds.

An actual tie is unlikely at Critics Choice — though not impossible, just ask Lady Gaga (“A Star is Born”) and Glenn Close (“The Wife”). But as of this writing Stone and Gladstone are locked together at 18/5 odds based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users. When it comes to the Expert journalists we’ve surveyed from major media outlets, they’re dead even with five betting on Stone and five betting on Gladstone. For Gold Derby’s Editors who cover awards year-round it’s also a dead heat: five predict Stone and five predict Gladstone.

Our Top 24 Users, who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Critics Choice film winners, give Gladstone the advantage, but just barely: 12 say she’ll win compared to 11 backing Stone. Our All-Star Top 24, the top scoring users when you combine the last two years’ prediction results, give it to Gladstone by a slightly wider margin: 13 bet on her, while 10 bet on Stone. But it’s not enough of a difference to separate the two women in our numerical odds.

Both actresses have won their share of regional critics prizes across the country — for instance, Gladstone was chosen by the New York Film Critics Circle while Stone was picked by the Los Angeles Film Critics Association — so we can’t take definitive guidance from them as to what the Critics Choice Association will do. Who are you betting on in this close race?

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