Reading the BAFTA tea leaves: What do longlists tell us about nominations?
The 2024 BAFTA longlists were revealed on January 5. Three films — “Barbie,” Killers of the Flower Moon” and “Oppenheimer” — lead with 15 mentions apiece. “Poor Things” is right behind at 14 while “Maestro” reaped an even dozen, “Saltburn” came in at 11 and both “All of Us Strangers” and “The Zone of Interest” registered 10 appearances.
How likely are these films to top the leaderboard when BAFTA nominations are announced on Jan. 18? Let’s take a look back at last year to see how much these longlists matter in the end.
Four movies numbered in the double digits on the 2023 longlists: “All Quiet on the Western Front” also merited 15 mentions and “The Banshees of Inisherin” was right behind at 14. “Elvis” and “Everything Everywhere All at Once” each earned an even dozen. And four more merited eight mentions apiece: “Aftersun,” “Babylon,” “Tár” and “Top Gun: Maverick.”
SEE BAFTA longlists: ‘Barbie,’ ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ and ‘Oppenheimer’ lead
Of these, “All Quiet on the Western Front” had the best showing in the BAFTA nominations with 14 bids including Best Picture. Surprisingly, leading man Felix Kammerer was snubbed by the actors branch. That might have been due to a new jury system that determined the final contenders in many of the key categories.
“The Banshees of Inisherin” earned 10 nominations, checking off almost all the key boxes with bids for Best Picture, writer/director Martin McDonagh and four of the cast: leading man Colin Farrell, supporting actors Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan, and supporting actress Kerry Condon.
“Everything Everywhere All At Once” also reaped 10 bids including Best Picture, double nominations for the writing/directing team of Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, leading lady Michelle Yeoh and featured players Jamie Lee Curtis and Ke Huy Quan.
“Elvis” contended in nine races including Best Picture, Actor (Austin Butler) and a slew of below-the-line categories.
“TAR” had only five nominations but they included Best Picture, both writing and directing for Todd Field, and a Best Actress bid for Cate Blanchett.
“Aftersun” and “Top Gun: Maverick” batted .500 with four bids to show for their eight longlist mentions while “Babylon” had to settle for three.
PREDICT the 2024 Oscar nominees through January 23
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