Can Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis get the boost they need in Iowa?

The first in the nation Republican presidential contest is in just ten days, when the Iowa caucuses are held on January 15th. Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis are both looking to gain momentum in a longshot bid to win the GOP nomination over Donald Trump.

The winner of the contest is essentially a foregone conclusion, as months of lower candidates crisscrossing the Hawkeye state have failed to make much of a dent in Trump’s lead. According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average of the state, the former president is at 50% with a more than 30-point advantage over DeSantis and Haley, who come in at 18% and 16%, respectively.

Thus, the real battle on January 15th will be for second place. If either DeSantis or Haley can leap out above the other and create some separation in the final Iowa vote count, it will give their campaign a major boost.

The pair are scheduled for a one-on-one debate on January 10th at Drake University in the capital city Des Moines, which will serve as a final chance to win over Iowans deciding between them. Donald Trump turned down his invite and will instead do a solo townhall at the same time as the debate.

DeSantis must finish at least second in Iowa or he will be in danger of dropping out of the primary, as his campaign and allied Super PACs have gone all in on the state. He received the endorsement of Governor Kim Reynolds, has visited all 99 counties– a full Grassley, and intensely courted the heavy population of Iowa evangelical voters.

A strong second place showing would revive his stalled campaign, which has been plagued with missteps, and keep it a three-horse race for the nomination, which could seal the race for Trump. 

However, if DeSantis fails to finish in the top two in the Iowa caucuses and Haley supplants him in the state, she will almost certainly become the lone Republican alternative to Trump. If Haley surges into a strong second place showing and outperforms expectations, it sets her campaign up with momentum for a friendly run of states. 

She appears to have strong standing in the New Hampshire primary, which follows Iowa on January 23rd. New Hampshire is a friendlier environment for Haley, as it has a more moderate streak than the more conservative Iowa and a significant percentage of the primary voters–as much as 40%–will be Independents.

Since securing the endorsement of the Granite State’s popular governor, Chris Sununu, Haley has risen rapidly in the polls. FiveThirtyEight’s New Hampshire average now has Trump at 44% with Haley trailing by 18-points at 26%. One recent poll finds Haley trailing Trump by just four percentage points.

An overperformance in Iowa could give Haley the media headlines, attention, and momentum she needs to squeak out a win over Trump in New Hampshire and alter the complexion of the race.

Although winning in Iowa can be a launch pad to winning the nomination as former President Barack Obama showed on the Democratic side in 2008, in recent Republican history the New Hampshire primary has been more impactful.

The Republican presidential nominees in 2008 (John McCain), 2012 (Mitt Romney), and 2016 (Donald Trump) have first lost Iowa and then won New Hampshire. It appears the 2024 race is set up for New Hampshire to again play an outsized role.

A significant roadblock is former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. He occupies the never Trump wing of the party in New Hampshire, which would more than likely support Haley if he dropped out.

However, Christie has resisted calls to do so, including from his friend Governor Sununu. Polls show Christie currently holding 11% of support in New Hampshire, and it will likely be impossible to consolidate a large enough coalition to defeat Trump in the state if he does not give way to Haley. It is exceedingly likely that in coming days the pressure from the anti-Trump wing of the GOP on Christie to exit the race will mount.

Following New Hampshire in February is Haley’s home state of South Carolina. Her campaign is already looking towards the state as they court the endorsement of former presidential candidate and Senator from South Carolina Tim Scott.

Ideally for the former Governor of South Carolina, she will go into her home state coming off of a win in New Hampshire; however, even a strong showing where Haley keeps it close with Trump will give her hope to win in South Carolina, especially if DeSantis is out of the race by then. 

It will not be easy for Nikki Haley to run this gauntlet and give herself a legitimate shot at winning the nomination, but it is conceivable. The first step is to outduel Ron DeSantis for second in Iowa and seize the momentum going into New Hampshire.

Douglas Schoen is a political consultant.