Michael Penix Jr.’s NFL Draft stock is up, but valid questions remain

Michael Penix Jr. has changed the conversation around his NFL Draft stock, and he has one more chance to put on a show

During the previous college football season, a quarterback faced a stout defense in a College Football Playoff semifinal game, put in a virtuoso performance, and forced many in the evaluation space to rethink that player’s draft prospects.

Did we just see that happen again?

Last season it was C.J. Stroud. The Ohio State passer was viewed by many as a strong prospect for the 2023 NFL Draft, but while his arm talent and accuracy were not questioned, his ability to play in the face of pressure, and create outside the pocket and/or off structure were question marks. Then he squared off against a tremendous Georgia and their defensive front, turned in a fantastic performance, and changed his stars.

Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. might have done the same thing in the Sugar Bowl against Texas.

Similar to Stroud, Penix entered the CFP as a Heisman finalist, and his draft profile starts with arm talent and accuracy. Penix was at the helm of one of college football’s most explosive offenses, and his combination of velocity, anticipation, and touch in the downfield passing game created countless explosive plays for the Washington passing game.

However, entering the Sugar Bowl there were also some questions facing Penix as a prospect. He certainly is surrounded by elite talent, as he gets to throw to a tremendous wide receiver corps while playing behind the Joe Moore Award-winning offensive line. That unit allowed just 11 sacks this season, tied for fourth-fewest in college football.

It is that second point where many of the questions lied. While Penix certainly put up huge numbers this season, his performance against pressure was a big question. According to Sports Info Solutions, Penix was pressured on 135 dropbacks this season. On those plays, he posted an NCAA Passer Rating of just 78.8, which ranked 42nd in college football. His completion percentage on those throws was 44.4 percent, which ranked 72nd in college football.

As charted by SIS, 66.0% of his throws under pressure were “catchable,” which ranked Penix 138rd in college football.

Pressure is part of life as a quarterback. If you struggle in the face of pressure in college, things are only going to get tougher for you in the NFL. A recent example comes from the 2021 NFL Draft, and Zach Wilson. Wilson also put up huge numbers for BYU, but received the benefit of playing behind a great offensive line. When pressured, according to SIS, Wilson put up better numbers than Penix — such as a completion percentage of 54.2%, which ranked him 26th in college football during the 2020 season — but nobody who has seen him in the NFL would claim that playing under pressure is a strength.

But in the Sugar Bowl, Penix had a chance to flash what he can do in the face of pressure, and on college football’s biggest stage. And what he did might have changed the conversation about his draft prospects. Penix was dazzling in the face of pressure Monday night, and it started early in the game. As the first quarter was winding down, Washington faced a 2nd and 9 at their own 21-yard line. The Longhorns brought a five-man pressure package, complete with an interior stunt which gave defensive tackle Byron Murphy II a free run at Penix.

Unfazed by the pressure, the Washington QB simply flicked a back-shoulder fade throw to wide receiver Germie Bernard for a 29-yard gain:

Here’s that play from the end zone angle, where you can see both the stunt from Texas which creates the pressure, as well as how Penix works his eyes from the middle of the field to the fade route from Bernard:

Two plays later, Murphy is in Penix’s lap again. The big defensive tackle splits a double-team on the inside, and has another free run at Penix. Watch as the QB sees the pressure, slides around the free runner, and then gets his eyes to Rome Odunze on a dig route to move the chains:

Again, take a look at the end zone angle of this play. Besides bolstering Murphy’s own draft stock, this is a great example of a QB creating enough space in the pocket — while keeping his eyes up — in the face of pressure to make a big play:

Later in the second half, Penix again needed to respond to pressure, and create as a passer. With Washington facing a 1st and 10 on their own 38-yard line, and the game tied at 14, Penix dropped to throw out of an empty formation. Texas again gets near-immediate pressure on Penix, as defensive tackle Vernon Broughton gets the right guard to whiff with a swim move. But watch as Penix climbs and escapes the pocket, before flicking a throw on the move to Dillon Johnson late in the play:

(For those wondering, the play was reviewed and it was determined that Penix was not across the line of scrimmage when he made the throw.)

Here is the other angle of the play, and while we can give a hat-tip to Broughton for his move off the ball, Penix again shows he can create in the face of pressure when necessary:

Perhaps the best example of Penix climbing and escaping pressure, before ripping a great throw, came on the final play of this drive. With Washington facing a 2nd and 10 at the Texas 29-yard line, Penix again faces near-immediate pressure, as Ethan Burke is unblocked off the left edge. The Washington passer steps up and around Burke, and while the pass rusher does get his hands on him, Penix is able to launch a rocket towards Ja’Lynn Polk:

As you can see from the end zone angle, cornerback Malik Muhammad manages to get his hands on the football, but the ball is thrown with enough velocity that it goes through his hands, and into the waiting arms of Polk for the touchdown:

Speaking of velocity, we cannot discuss his Penix’s game against Texas without highlighting this touchdown, a safety-splitting post route to Jalen McMillian that can best be described as a ball thrown with anger behind it:

The end zone angle of this touchdown might be my favorite clip from this entire game. Washington catches Texas in two-high coverage here, and they run four verticals out of a 3x1 alignment. As you can see on the end zone angle Derek Williams Jr., the playside safety, knows exactly what is coming, and is calling for the backside safety to come over and help on McMillian’s route.

But while the freshman safety is good, Penix is better:

Now, is one game enough to completely change Penix’s evaluation? Probably not, and he does face questions beyond his ability to play in the face of pressure. Penix is an older prospect, set to turn 24 days after the 2024 NFL Draft. He has also endured multiple knee injuries, and each of his four seasons at Indiana were cut short due to major injuries. He suffered season-ending ACL injuries in 2018 and 2020, and season-ending shoulder injuries in 2019 and 2021.

That led Daniel Jeremiah, who covers the NFL and the NFL draft for the NFL Network to opine that the biggest factor in his evaluation might not be the input from scouts, but the input from doctors:

However, as we saw a year ago, one game was enough to shift the conversation around Stroud. And unlike Stroud, Penix has one more thing going for him.

Another game, to shift the conversation even more.