Fantasy Football and Betting Guide for NFL Week 18

Dozens and dozens of quarterbacks later, Week 18 has finally arrived. And with it, even more backup quarterbacks are set to take the field to put a bow on a strange, injury-riddled season.

But don’t let the fact that Carson Wentz, Sam Darnold, Tyler Huntley and Blaine Gabbert are all starting this week lead you to believe that the playoff picture is settled. Far from it. Two thirds of the league are still alive heading into the finale.

We parse what that means for you as a bettor, fantasy player and football fan in today’s newsletter.

In today’s Winners Club you’ll find:

• Fantasy football advice for the finale
• NFL Week 18 ATS, O/U betting breakdowns
• National Championship game preview, pick

Fantasy Football Lineup Decisions

Many fantasy football leagues crowned champions in Week 17, but some continue into the final week of the NFL season. As we’re about to get into, there are quite a few pitfalls to extending the fantasy playoffs just one extra week.

MVP favorite Lamar Jackson, Offensive Player of the Year favorite Christian McCaffrey and reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes are all out for Week 18 as the Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs are all locked into playoff spots. Such high-profile absences naturally sent managers scrambling to the waiver wire for last-minute pickups, such as Khalil Herbert and Juwan Johnson, who Michael Fabiano recommended adding earlier in the week.

His advice doesn’t stop there: As always, Fabiano has start/sit advice and rankings for fantasy managers who are still playing. Get Dak Prescott in your lineup, with the Dallas Cowboys heavily favored to beat the Washington Commanders, but stay away from Terry McLaurin in that same game.

Start ’Em, Sit ’Em: QB | RB | WR | TE | K & D/ST

Player Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | FLEX | K | D/ST

It’s not just resting players you have to worry about this week: There’s a lengthy injury list that includes players on teams that still have something to play for, like Tua Tagovailoa, Alvin Kamara and Aaron Jones. Jen Piacenti outlined the players on the injury report who you need to keep an eye on before lineups lock this weekend.

And if your season is already over, you can always keep the action going by playing DFS. Piacenti picked Geno Smith and Kenneth Walker as two players to target on Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals with the Seattle Seahawks still fighting for a playoff spot.

NFL Week 18 Picks and Lines

It was easy to assign a game of the week for the final slate of the season: Sunday night’s Bills-Dolphins bout easily takes the cake as the winner gets the AFC East crown. That game headlines our list of the five best games to bet, but it’s far from the only matchup with major playoff implications as a record-tying 20 teams are still in contention for 14 postseason spots.

With that in mind, Piacenti took a look at which teams have something to play for, be that a playoff spot or seeding and, in some cases, optimal draft position. And it’s not just teams trying to eke things out in Week 18: Several players have contract bonuses that they’re in position to earn depending on their performance this week and those incentives can be used to your advantage in the player prop market.

As far as over/unders go, the league’s 16-game schedule runs the gamut from the Jets-Patriots at a lowly 30.5 to Bills-Dolphins at 48.5. Gilberto Manzano shared his five best total bets for the finale.

The MMQB team also picked every game straight up — the most popular upset pick was the Rams over the 49ers and a few writers also believe the Bears can play spoiler against the Packers at Lambeau.

Saturday

4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN, ABC): Steelers (-3.5) vs. Ravens | Total: 34.5

8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, ABC): Texans (-1.5) vs. Colts | Total: 47.5

Sunday

1 p.m. ET (CBS): Browns vs. Bengals (-6.5) | Total: 37.5

1 p.m. ET (FOX): Vikings vs. Lions (-3.5) | Total: 45.5

1 p.m. ET (CBS): Jaguars (-3.5) vs. Titans | Total: 41.5

1 p.m. ET (FOX) Jets vs. Patriots (-1.5) | Total: 30.5

1 p.m. ET (CBS): Falcons vs. Saints (-3.5) | Total: 41.5

1 p.m. ET (FOX): Buccaneers (-4.5) vs. Panthers | Total: 37.5

4:25 p.m. ET (CBS): Bears vs. Packers (-2.5) | Total: 45.5

4:25 p.m. ET (FOX): Broncos vs. Raiders (-2.5) | Total: 36.5

4:25 p.m. ET (CBS): Eagles (-5.5) vs. Giants | Total: 41.5

4:25 p.m. ET (FOX): Seahawks (-2.5) vs. Cardinals | Total: 47.5

4:25 p.m. ET (CBS): Chiefs vs. Chargers (-3.5) | Total: 35.5

4:25 p.m. ET (FOX): Rams vs. 49ers (-4.5) | Total: 40.5

4:25 p.m. ET (FOX): Cowboys (-12.5) vs. Commanders | Total: 46.5

8:20 p.m. ET (NBC): Bills (-2.5) vs. Dolphins | Total: 48.5

Michigan, Washington Meet in CFP Final Monday

The Wolverines and Huskies both advanced to the national championship game unbeaten despite close calls in the semifinals on New Year’s Day. No. 1 Michigan came back to force overtime against No. 4 Alabama, which it defeated 27–20. No. 2 Washington got past No. 3 Texas after stopping the Longhorns on the final play of regulation in a 37–31 victory.

Now, both programs are vying for their first title since the 1990s. Regardless of the result, a rematch is already on deck for next season when the Huskies join the Wolverines in the Big Ten.

7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN): No. 2 Washington vs. No. 1 Michigan (-4.5) | Total: 55.5

Washington is well known for its high-flying offense, led by Heisman Trophy runner-up Michael Penix Jr., who leads the country in passing yards. The Huskies have an affinity for winning one-score games, a streak they continued against the Longhorns. Michigan’s super power is its defense, which allows the fewest points per game in college football. The Wolverines tend to have wider margins of victory, though three of their last four games were decided by one score.

For a full betting breakdown and pick, check out our CFP National Championship game preview for more insight on both teams and the players who will swing this matchup.

In Other News

Lamar Jackson, Tyreek Hill Headline Pro Bowl Rosters: The NFL announced the AFC and NFC Pro Bowl rosters for the games in Orlando the week before the Super Bowl. As always, there were perceived snubs, like Josh Allen and Antoine Winfield Jr.

Draymond to Return to Warriors “In the Coming Days”: Golden State’s suspended forward is reportedly nearing a return to the team. He’s missed the Warriors’ last 11 games — they have gone 6–5 without him.

Auburn and Illinois Among Dark Horse College Hoops Teams: With conference play starting up in the new year, Kevin Sweeney picked six teams that could make surprise runs this season in each of the six major conferences.

Scottie Scheffler Stands Atop SI Golf Power Rankings: The 2024 PGA Tour kicks off this week in Hawaii and Scheffler is ranked No. 1 coming off his Hero World Challenge win in December.

Thanks for reading Winners Club! Enjoy the final week of regular-season NFL action and be sure to stick with us throughout the postseason @SI_Betting and @SI_Fantasy. Winners Club will be back in your inbox Sunday morning and again on Monday ahead of the national championship game.