Golden Globes: 5 reasons why ‘Oppenheimer’ has zero percent chance of losing for Best Film Drama

You read the headline. You know that it’s true. There’s almost little point in discussing it, because it’s that obvious. But just for the sake of awards science, allow me to quickly explain why almost everyone at Gold Derby is in agreement on this.

Here are five reasons why “Oppenheimer” has a zero percent chance of losing the Golden Globe Award for Best Film Drama on Sunday, January 7.

1. The Golden Globes usually like to predict the Oscar winner.
And seeing as how “Oppenheimer” looks like a lock for the Academy Award for Best Picture, there’s little reason for voters to go in a different direction. Sure, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” fell to “The Banshees of Inisherin” in the Globes’ Comedy or Musical category last year. (And “Everything” went on to win almost everything at the Oscars while “Banshees” was effectively banished.) However, that was arguably before “Everything” all at once took a grip on the race with each of its hot dog fingers. “Oppenheimer” has been the hot Oscar frontrunner since last summer, and shows no sign of cooling down. Expect the Globe to serve as an appetizer to its entree at the Oscars.

2. There’s a case to be made that it truly is the best dramatic motion picture of the six.
It was the most cerebral cinematic experience of 2023. The writing, directing, acting and production values were all pretty much off the charts. Even the biggest fans of “Barbie” (which opened on that same historic “Barbenheimer” July weekend) realize that it’s child’s play compared to “Oppenheimer.” The sheer gravitas of the film should easily land it the Globe.

3. Christopher Nolan is a shoo-in for Best Director at the Globes.
While some may wonder if voters may split Picture and Director, consider the trending pattern of the award. The recipient of the Golden Globe for Best Director has helmed one of the two Best Pictures (either Drama or Comedy/Musical) almost every time in recent years. Richard Linklater for 2014’s “Boyhood.” Alejandru G. Inarritu for 2015’s “The Revenant.” Damien Chazelle for 2016’s “La La Land.” Sam Mendes for 2019’s “1917.” Chloe Zhao for 2020’s “Nomadland.” Jane Campion for 2021’s “The Power of the Dog.” And Steven Spielberg for 2022’s “The Fabelmans.” Again, all of them accepted Globes for directing films that also prevailed in one of the Globes’ Best Motion Picture contests. If we’re right about the overdue Nolan collecting the Globe for Best Director, then “Oppenheimer” is all but assured to take Best Film Drama. It’s not even a contest.

4. Its success became one of the biggest entertainment stories of the year.
The box office. The buzz. The brilliance. (Okay, the same could be said about “Barbie” – but it’s appropriately placed in the Comedy or Musical lineup.) The global success of “Oppenheimer” makes it just too big for the Globes to ignore. Can anything even come close to taking it down? Which leads me to my final point …

5. There’s nothing else that can beat it.
“Anatomy of a Fall,” “Past Lives” and “The Zone of Interest” are generating the most interest in the Globes’ Best Non-English Film zone. If they’re going to win a top prize, that’s where it will most likely be. “Maestro” is virtually assured to bring its maestro Bradley Cooper Best Drama Actor honors. That’s how voters will reward the film. The same logic can be applied to Lily Gladstone in the highly touted “Killers of the Flower Moon.” By naming her Best Actress in a Drama, the Globes will allow “Killers” its own moment in the sun. So in the end, it’s “Oppenheimer” left to shine the brightest — basking in the glow of Golden Globe victory for Best Film Drama.

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