‘Succession’ is on track to sweep the Golden Globes like few dramas have done before

Logan (Brian Cox) once told his kids, “I have you beat” on “Succession,” and the show could basically say the same to its Golden Globe competition. The HBO hit was already expected to dominate prior to nominations, but its record-breaking nine bids for its fourth and final season just underscored how it is truly the one to beat on the drama side — and perhaps nothing can beat it.

The show feels locked and loaded in Best Drama Series at 82/25 odds. It has more than 1,600 predictions to win. No other nominee — “The Last of Us,” “The Crown,” “The Morning Show,” “The Diplomat” and “1923” — has even hit 100 (not a typo) predictions to triumph. “Succession” would tie “The X-Files” and “Mad Men” with a record three drama series trophies, but unlike those two shows, it will never have suffered a loss in the category, which is definitely something to brag about. It wasn’t nominated for series for its first season before winning for its sophomore installment in 2020 and its third outing in 2022.

“Succession” is also predicted to prevail in the lead acting races, which would make it just the fourth show this century to sweep the three drama categories after “The Sopranos,” “Homeland” and “The Crown.” Kieran Culkin, the only cast member who’s been nominated for every year of the show, upgraded to lead this season and is the odds-on favorite to finally win for his turn as Roman. He will have to overcome internal competition from Cox and Jeremy Strong, which could pave the way for a non-“Succession” champ like Pedro Pascal (“The Last of Us”), who’s in second. Pascal is also contending for a first-year show and the Globes love christening newbies — or at least the disbanded Hollywood Foreign Press Association did. Cox and Strong have won Best TV Drama Actor already, so a Culkin victory would make “Succession” the second show after “NYPD Blue” to boast three different winners in the category.

SEE ‘Succession’ is poised to complete its Golden Globe win streak

Just like her onscreen bro, Sarah Snook also moved up to lead this season. Unlike Culkin, she has won for “Succession” already, having triumphed in Best TV Supporting Actress in 2022. She doesn’t face any “Succession” co-stars in Best Drama Actress, so she feels safer to come out on top. Bella Ramsey (“The Last of Us”) and Keri Russell (“The Diplomat”) are the next closest and headline new shows, and the latter is a former winner for “Felicity.” “The Crown’s” Imelda Staunton is in fourth place, but it seems unlikely she will join her predecessors Claire Foy and Olivia Colman as Golden Globe winners for playing Queen Elizabeth II. Foy and Colman also won their Globes for their first seasons on “The Crown,” while Staunton lost last year to Zendaya (“Euphoria”).

After splitting the TV supporting categories in comedy/drama and TV movie/limited last year, the Globes consolidated them again into catch-all categories. That was no biggie for “Succession,” which surprised with three supporting actor bids for Matthew Macfadyen, Alan Ruck and Alexander Skarsgard. Macfadyen is the predicted winner, but it’s important to note that this is his first Globe nomination for “Succession.” It’s also the first (and last) chance the Globes have had to nominate him since his Emmy win in 2022. The Globes have played catch-up before with shows or people who got Emmy love first (see: Bryan Cranston and “Breaking Bad”). In second place is James Marsden (“Jury Duty”), who is the apple in a bag of oranges here as he plays a fictional version of himself on the Amazon FreeVee sleeper hit.

The only category “Succession” is not favored in is Best TV Supporting Actress, where J. Smith-Cameron sits in fourth place. Meryl Streep is the predicted champ for her Season 3 stint on “Only Murders in the Building.” She would extend her own Globes record to nine wins as well. But Elizabeth Debicki is close behind for her portrayal of Princess Diana on “The Crown.” While the sixth and final season of the royal drama had a mixed reception, Debicki’s turn is widely acclaimed and the Diana-focused first part of the season gave her a ton of material. But would anyone be surprised if JSC just won this as part of the “Succession” farewell tour? She already defied the odds by getting the nomination (she was in ninth). If that happens, “Succession” would be the first show to win five Globes in one night since its HBO brethren “Angels in America” accomplished the feat 20 years ago on the TV movie/limited side. That sweep, of course, included none other than Streep.

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