Reminder: ‘Succession’ has still never won an individual SAG Award
“Succession” has dominated various awards shows in recent years, winning individual acting prizes at the Emmys, Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. Everywhere, pretty much, except for the Screen Actors Guild Awards. To date, the HBO family drama has received five SAG Awards nominations, all in 2022, where it won the ensemble honor but lost for solo actors Sarah Snook, Brian Cox, Jeremy Strong and Kieran Culkin. Will the strange pattern end this year for “Succession’s” fourth and final season?
The roughly 160,000 members of the acting guild infamously snubbed “Succession” for its first and second seasons, despite other awards shows falling head over heels for it by year two. However, SAG-AFTRA did an about-face for the third season, honoring “Succession” with the most nominations (five) for a drama series that year and giving it the top trophy for drama ensemble. It beat out the casts of “The Handmaid’s Tale,” “The Morning Show,” “Squid Game” and “Yellowstone.”
As of this writing, Culkin enjoys leading 17/5 odds to win the drama actor race this year for playing youngest son Roman Roy. Rounding out the likely list of Top 5 nominees are Strong (4/1 odds), Pedro Pascal for “The Last of Us” (9/2 odds), Macfadyen (11/2 odds) and Billy Crudup for “The Morning Show” (8/1 odds). Cox sits comfortably in sixth place with 16/1 odds, while “Succession” featured players Alexander Skarsgard, Nicholas Braun and Alan Ruck can be found in 16th place, 26th place and 28th place, respectively.
As for the drama actress race, Snook claims the top position at 16/5 odds for her role as sister Shiv Roy. Her predicted co-nominees are Bella Ramsey for “The Last of Us” (4/1), Elizabeth Debicki for “The Crown” (5/1 odds), Jennifer Aniston for “The Morning Show” (6/1 odds) and Keri Russell for “The Diplomat” (7/1 odds). “Succession” supporting actress J. Smith-Cameron is slightly further down the chart in ninth place with 62/1 odds.
Don’t forget, the individual SAG Awards categories combines lead and supporting performances together, so it’s the only place where Macfadyen, for example, can get grouped in with Strong and Cox. Conversely, the Emmys, Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards have separate categories for both, and it’s rather notable that this year Culkin and Snook made the leap from supporting to lead due to their increased amount of screen time throughout the final season of “Succession.”
At the 2022 SAG Awards, Culkin, Cox and Strong all lost the drama actor race to Lee Jung-jae (“Squid Game”). Lest you think vote-splitting was the determining factor, remember that Snook contended alone for her show on the drama actress side and still lost to “Squid Game” scene-stealer Jung Ho-Yeon.
In the top drama ensemble race, “Succession” leads Gold Derby’s winner predictions with 16/5 odds, followed by HBO’s “The Last of Us” (9/2 odds), Netflix’s “The Crown” (9/2 odds), Apple’s “The Morning Show” (5/1 odds) and Showtime’s “Yellowjackets” (10/1 odds). Note that “The Crown” won this race twice in 2020 and 2021, with “Succession” prevailing in 2022 and then “The White Lotus” (which is currently gearing up for Season 3) claiming victory in 2023.
PREDICT the 2024 SAG Award nominations through January 10
Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?
SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictions