Democrats feel entitled to the Black vote, and only now are they 'concerned'

There are few things more terrifying to Democrats than the prospect of Black voters moving, even slightly, toward the Republican Party.

After the Civil War, once the Democratic Party had lost and slavery was abolished, former slaves rushed to vote for the party that had been created for the express purpose of abolishing that horrible institution.

Democrats fought Reconstruction tooth and nail, employing violence as a means to intimidate and terrify. After the contested election of 1876 came the compromise of 1877. Republicans made a deal with the devil. In exchange for letting Rutherford B. Hayes (R) take the White House, Democrats demanded an end to Reconstruction. Restored to power, they proceeded to suppress the Black vote and Blacks' other rights in the South. Soon, all Black members of Congress from the South, all Republicans, were tossed out of office. Segregation and Jim Crow became the norm for the next nine decades.

Black voters, if Democrats did not prevent them from voting outright, voted mostly for Republicans for much of that time. That changed with President Lyndon Johnson and the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

From that time, Democrats have come to lean heavily on the Black vote, and never as heavily as they do now. As with most things that can relied upon, they have taken it completely for granted ever since, providing almost nothing in return save for fearmongering.

With Democrats commanding upwards of 90 percent of the Black vote in some elections, and cultural and civil rights leaders enforcing that near-unanimity, Republicans typically hope for only around 10 percent.

And that was just how it was. No matter how bad the economy or crime got in cities with high Black populations and generational Democratic Party control, Republicans could never make even a small dent in that loyalty.

Now, however, something might be changing. It's not much, but a door may be opening.

If that sounds like it is a very mealy-mouthed and qualified statement, that’s because it is. Polling data has become less reliable in the last 10 years, so the current numbers could either be way off or easily change in the next 10 months. But President Joe Biden's historically low popularity may be creating a perfect storm for Republicans to make inroads with Black voters.

This has terrified the Democratic establishment. Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.), the Black Democrat whose endorsement gave Biden the nomination in 2020, says he’s “not worried” but somehow “very concerned” about Biden doing poorly with Black voters.

This is the fruit of generational party control, witnessed by people who remember that things were better before. It is a result of younger people eyeing a bleak future and wondering what they have to lose by trying something different.

Clyburn is so concerned, in fact, that he blamed the racist mass shooting at the Emmanuel AME Church in 2015 in his home state on Donald Trump’s entry into politics, which had only occurred literally one day before. Quite a feat, if true, but one gets a sense of how deep the fearmongering goes. The same could be said for many of the fake hate crimes that were staged shortly after Trump's 2016 election victory.

USA Today ran a recent story tellingly titled, “A fraying coalition: Black, Hispanic, young voters abandon Biden as election year begins.” The key word there is “abandon.” It falsely implies that some loyalty is owed. One “abandons” one's family, friends, or children — people owed loyalty. No voter owes loyalty to any political party, and only Black voters face so much scorn from the left for failing follow the expectations of the Democratic establishment.

Blacks don’t owe Democrats their votes, and increasingly polls suggest they may not supply them in as great abundance as in the past. The Suffolk University poll cited in that USA Today report found only 63 percent of Black registered voters supporting Biden, down from the 87 percent he received in 2020. One in five Black voters leans toward voting third-party. A November NBC News survey found Trump winning between 14 and 30 percent of the Black vote. A more recent poll from Quinnipiac had him at 17 percent. This may not sound like much, but that, or even just tepid Black turnout due to Biden's unpopularity, would be enough to prevent Democrats from winning in most states.

However the Black vote goes in the end, the discussion this far out is very telling. It's only January, and Democrats fear they are losing what they feel entitled to. How they respond between now and November, and how Republicans do as well, will likely decide the 2024 outcome.

Derek Hunter is host of the Derek Hunter Podcast and a former staffer for the late Sen. Conrad Burns (R-Mont.).