Tom Cruise Ditches Paramount for Warner — What It All Means | Analysis

Tom Cruise made a decision on Tuesday that was more death-defying than hanging onto the side of an airplane or riding his motorcycle into a ravine: To decamp from his home of 31 years, Paramount, for Warner Bros. 

The move sent Hollywood reeling.  The mega-star has been associated with Paramount since 1992, when his production company Cruise/Wagner made a production deal that led to the first “Mission: Impossible” movie release in 1996. Though the formal deal is long ended, Cruise’s decision was enough to send shockwaves through the industry. 

What are the implications for valuable movie franchises like “Mission: Impossible” and “Top Gun”? What Warner franchises might interest the still-popular action star? And how will it impact Paramount’s merger discussions with Warner Bros Discovery?

The move could mean the loss of Hollywood’s single most bankable movie star at a studio that’s on the bubble for acquisition. Wall Street sent Paramount’s already-depressed stock down three percent to close at $14.23, as talent agents, managers and producers weighed the myriad possibilities. 

“Massive win for WBD,” said a top manager. “He’s one of the surest bets in film right now that anyone can secure.”

True enough. Tom Cruise is a singular enough force in Hollywood that his decision to move to Warner will have ripple effects throughout the industry. And industry players told TheWrap on Tuesday that Warner Bros. Discovery and its CEO David Zaslav are the big winners. “I don’t know that it’s a blow to Paramount since they’re going to be acquired,” a top agent told TheWrap. “But it’s indeed a coup for Warner Bros.” 

Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery declined to comment for this article.

Here are some of the implications:

‘Mission: Impossible’ and the value of IP 

Does Paramount lose its most valuable franchise, “Mission: Impossible”?

Short answer: No.

With Cruise as its star, the franchise has produced $4.1 billion in global box office for Paramount from 1996-2023, according to Box Office Mojo. And another Cruise extravaganza, “Top Gun: Maverick,” has grossed $1.5 billion globally since its release in 2022. 

But it’s a two-edged sword for Paramount. While the studio owns the rights to “Mission: Impossible.” Cruise has effective control over the IP as long as he is the star and producer. 

Paramount has long wanted to create other content based on “Mission: Impossible,” whether for Paramount+, CBS television or short-form content, perhaps with some cast members from the film series. But Cruise has made sure it’s a theatrical-only experience. (The last TV show was that late ‘80s revival.)

With Cruise leaving Paramount for Warner Bros., where he last made “Edge of Tomorrow” in 2014 with frequent collaborators Christopher McQuarrie and Doug Liman, the Cruise-led version of the “Mission: Impossible” franchise will likely cease to exist.

If that happens,  the studio could exploit the IP in new ways, flooding the various channels of parent company Paramount Global.

The latest entry, this past summer’s “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Part One,” was seen as a commercial disappointment, especially following so close behind “Top Gun: Maverick.” But it was still enough to become Cruise’s sixth-highest grossing movie ever with more than $566 million at the worldwide box office.

The eighth “Mission: Impossible” entry, still untitled and due in the summer of 2025, will undoubtedly be the last — at least for a little while. Cruise’s new deal with Warner Bros. is non-exclusive, meaning if the movie really delivers, then he could come back to Paramount. But even if it is a hit, Paramount might not want him back. The movie was hugely expensive, with Cruise exerting a staggering amount of control over not only their production but their marketing and distribution.

What about “Top Gun”? “Maverick” was the biggest domestic box-office hit in Paramount history (followed by “Titanic,” the global champ). Cruise has suggested he’s open to doing another sequel and has met with director Joseph Kosinski. 

But if Cruise definitively leaves Paramount behind, so goes the possibility of Paramount making another “Top Gun.” 

There were references in Tuesday’s announcement to Cruise working on “franchise” projects while at Warner Bros. Sequels to earlier Cruise/Warner Bros. projects have been bandied about over the years, with follow-ups to both “Edge of Tomorrow” (with McQuarrie and Liman returning for a follow-up that would be both prequel and sequel) and “Interview with the Vampire” discussed.

Could Paramount tempt Cruise back with the return of another one of his iconic characters? John Grisham just published a new book called “The Exchange” that sees the return of Mitch Deere, the main character of “The Firm.” 

How it impacts a Paramount sale to Warner Bros.

The move appears to weaken Paramount and strengthen Warner Bros. Discovery in any negotiation over an acquisition, which has been the talk of Hollywood in recent weeks.

With Cruise going to Warner Bros, Paramount has lost a central asset in its appeal to any buyer — its three-decade relationship with the star. 

In principle, Cruise being based at Warner makes Paramount less desirable to strategic buyers — other than WBD. 

Would Apple buy Paramount without the prospect of a relationship with Cruise? Is Zaslav simply flexing by stealing Paramount’s biggest star while in the middle of negotiations?

One could easily see Zaslav, an old-style Hollywood mogul, wooing Cruise with an appeal to Warner’s vaunted history, and the power of an old-fashioned green light.

“Zaslav is an enthusiast,” said one veteran producer. “He loves movies. He did a brilliant job marketing ‘Color Purple,’ and ‘Barbie’ was stunning. His concept is – if you spend the money on marketing and release a movie in the theater, it gives you more clout when it goes on streaming.”

Skydance Media and RedBird Capital are still interested in an alternate acquisition approach in buying National Amusements, the corporate parent run by Shari Redstone, Paramount’s non-executive chair, which controls most of Paramount’s stock. In many ways, Skydance is well placed, because CEO David Ellison has partnered with Cruise on virtually everything he’s done, and would still find a way of collaborating with the star.  

Analysts have told TheWrap that the most likely scenario is for National Amusements to sell off Paramount for parts to secure the highest value for the struggling company. Skydance and Redbird have signed NDAs with Paramount to explore a possible acquisition. Shares of Paramount Global have fallen 28% in the past year.

Tom Cruise: 1 of 1

It’s never good to lose the only global movie star left on the planet. Paramount cannot help but feel the sting of losing Cruise to Warner Bros. 

But there have been some red flags.

Cruise was known to be unhappy that Paramount was unable to keep “Mission: Impossible Dead Reckoning Part One” in IMAX theaters during its theatrical run in 2023. The movie opened July 12 and had most IMAX screens booked only until July 21, when Universal’s “Oppenheimer” debuted. The “Mission: Impossible” movie had a mediocre domestic box office result at $172 million — lower than each of the previous three franchise installments — and IMAX was part of that shortfall. The actor complained loudly to Paramount executives including Paramount Pictures CEO Brian Robbins about losing the IMAX screens, according to individuals familiar with the conversations.

Whatever Paramount may say, Cruise at a rival studio will be a huge asset for Warner Bros. and any film or filmmaker that comes through its storied gates.

The truth is, Cruise doesn’t need a production deal at Warner Bros. or any other studio. But at this point of his career, he may be looking for fresh ideas and new dragons to slay. And his presence on the lot will certainly provide bragging rights to the executives who run Warner Bros. Said one producer who works with the studio: Michael De Luca, Co-Chair and CEO of Warner Bros. Motion Pictures Group “has Tom Cruise on the lot if he wants to walk over and show him Batman.”

Cruise has accepted the seemingly impossible mission of helping Warner Bros out of its doldrums. Now the real action begins.

Drew Taylor contributed to this report.

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