Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone both won Golden Globes … so who wins Critics Choice?

If you were looking for definitive guidance from the Golden Globes in making your Critics Choice predictions for Best Actress, you didn’t exactly get it. It looks like the race is between Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) and Emma Stone (“Poor Things”), but they both won Globes: Gladstone for Best Film Drama Actress, Stone for Best Film Comedy/Musical Actress. So now that they’re going head-to-head, who will pull ahead?

It’s hard to say. As of this writing, based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users, it could go either way. For instance, the Expert journalists we’ve surveyed are split right down the middle with five saying Stone and five others saying Gladstone. No help there. But every other predictions bloc leans towards Gladstone, though not definitively. The “Flower Moon” star has support from seven out of 11 Gold Derby Editors, 13 of our Top 24 Users and 17 of our All-Star Top 24. By comparison Stone is backed by four Editors, 11 Top Users and seven All-Stars.

But how important is it to win Critics Choice? The membership of the Critics Choice Association doesn’t overlap with the motion picture academy that votes for the Oscars. However, the Critics Choice winner for Best Actress has won the Oscar in six of the last 10 years: Cate Blanchett (“Blue Jasmine,” 2013), Julianne Moore (“Still Alice,” 2014), Brie Larson (“Room,” 2015), Frances McDormand (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” 2017), Renee Zellweger (“Judy,” 2019) and Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye,” 2021). The two groups disagreed last year, though. The critics went for Blanchett in “Tár” while the Oscars picked Michelle Yeoh for “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” So no matter who wins Critics Choice on January 14, the race ain’t over yet.

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