Chris Perkins: Dolphins have a clear path to victory vs. Chiefs — and it’s a road they’ve frequently traveled
MIAMI GARDENS — I picked the Miami Dolphins to narrowly lose to the Kansas City Chiefs in Saturday’s AFC wild-card playoff game.
But the injury-depleted Dolphins have a path to victory — The Big Play.
The Big Play is how the Dolphins, who are 4-4 on the road this season and — 0-4 on the road against teams with a winning record — can knock off the Chiefs, whose stud quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, is 9-2 at Arrowhead Stadium in the playoffs.
Few teams do The Big Play better than the Dolphins on either side of the ball.
Even more encouraging is the Dolphins regularly score on big plays. That’s big.
“It’s a game of scores,” special teams coordinator Danny Crossman said. “The team with the most points wins the game.”
The Big Play is an equalizer for underdogs, lesser-talented teams or injury-riddled teams.
The Big Play is a back-breaker for tremendously talented teams.
The Big Play gives momentum.
(Recall Buffalo’s 96-yard punt return touchdown last Sunday.)
The Big Play takes momentum away.
(Recall Dolphins safety Jevon Holland’s 99-yard interception return shortly before halftime against the New York Jets earlier this season.)
The Big Play can change everything in a split second.
“When you make a big play,” Holland said, “it gives you the momentum.
“And then when you don’t make a big play and the other team has a big play it kind of takes the momentum away. Not kind of, it takes the momentum away and you’ve got to fight against that.”
The Dolphins have specialized in big plays.
The Dolphins have 33 passing plays of 25 or more yards, and 13 went for touchdowns.
(Recall Jaylen Waddle’s 60-yard touchdown reception against the New York Jets.)
The Dolphins have 29 rushing plays of 15 or more yards, and six went for touchdowns.
(Recall Raheem Mostert‘s 43-yard touchdown run against the New England Patriots.)
The Dolphins had a streak of three consecutive games with a pick-6 during the regular season.
(Recall Holland, linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel and defensive lineman Zach Sieler scoring on interception returns against the Jets, Washington Commander and Tennessee Titans.)
The Dolphins’ 56 sacks ranked No. 3 in the league.
(Recall Jaelan Phillips and Justin Bethel sacking Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert late in that game.)
The Dolphins, in short, are all about big plays.
That’s important.
The Dolphins, whose defense could be without seven starters, will need big defensive plays against the Chiefs.
Miami’s pass rush is depleted to the point the Dolphins had to sign a couple of 30-plus-year-old pass rushers (Bruce Irvin, 36 and Justin Houston, 34) to act as backups for a couple of starting 30-plus-year-old pass rushers (Melvin Ingram, 34 and Emmanuel Ogbah, 30).
The Dolphins’ secondary could be without both starting safeties (Holland has ailing knees and DeShon Elliot has a calf injury) and a starting cornerback (Xavien Howard is unlikely to play due to a foot injury).
Offensively, Miami looks OK, relatively speaking, but Mostert (knee/ankle), who has missed the past two games, will be less than 100%.
And wide receivers Tyreek Hill (ankle/quad) and Waddle (ankle), who missed the last game, will be less than 100%.
Under those circumstances, it seems unlikely for the Dolphins to have success with clock-chewing 12- and 14-play drives.
Most likely they’ll need chunk plays, they’ll need explosive plays, they’ll need the types of plays that come to your rescue after you’ve had three consecutive three-and-outs or had a turnover.
“An explosive play allows for you to cut down how many opportunities you need,” offensive coordinator Frank Smith said.
The Dolphins surely can march into Kansas City, where the temperature at kickoff is expected to be hovering around 0 degrees with a wind chill factor below zero, and come away with a victory.
The Big Play could be the key.
Oh, and if you’re wondering about special teams making big plays you’ll recall kicker Jason Sanders won the Dallas Cowboys game with five field goals, three of 50 or more yards, including the game-winning 29-yard field goal as time expired.
In a sense, the Dolphins are uniquely qualified to pull the upset against Kansas City.
That’s a good thing because this is the time of year when big plays matter most.