Financial manager from Minnesota wins $1M in Circa Million NFL contest
The Circa Sports Million season-long NFL handicapping contest came down to the final game of the season on Sunday night, with 39-year-old financial manager Matt Ste. Marie needing the Buffalo Bills to cover a 3-point spread (or push) to win $1 million.
The contest requires contestants to pick five games against the spread every NFL week. This was the fifth year of the contest, which drew a record 5,274 entries and had a prize pool of $6 million.
Ste. Marie flew out to Vegas with three of his best friends and watched Sunday’s Week 18 games at a VIP section of the Circa sportsbook with casino owner Derek Stevens and other contestants in Circa Survivor and Million sweating out games.
His selections for the final weekend were Ravens +4 , Falcons +3.5, New York Giants +5, Lions -3.5 and Bills -3, so he was 2-2 heading into Sunday Night Football. He had entered the week with a 1.5-point lead over second-place entry RDLOWN (wins are 1 point, pushes a half-point), but RDLOWN had gone with the Texas -1.5, Bears +3, Raiders -2.5, Lions -3.5 and Dolphins +3, so he was 3-1 heading into Bills-Dolphins.
The Bills were down 14-7 in the fourth quarter, but a Deonte Harty 96-yard punt return touchdown flipped the momentum and the Bills ended up winning 21-14 and sealing the contest victory for St. Marie, playing under the contest entry name SAINT31.
“I had locked in a tie for second or solo second, so the last game was icing on the cake,” Ste. Marie told For The Win by phone. “Buffalo left a lot of points on the table, but the punt return from Hardy completely changed the outlook on the game. It gave us some energy as well.”
After a Taylor Rapp interception sealed the game, Ste. Marie called his wife and broke down, having just won the $1 million first prize.
“It was stressful on my wife,” Ste. Marie said. “She kept the family together, got presents wrapped for Christmas and kept us grounded. She’d make sure all my superstition tactics were the same. I wouldn’t have been able to do it without her.”
Ste. Marie developed his own power ratings over the summer and adjusted them every Monday as part of his weekly routine. He listened to several gambling shows and podcasts to help shape his thoughts and used several available statistics (DVOA, EPA) to help with his picks.
His biggest revelation was that he wanted to maximize the amount of time each week he had to make picks, so he completely crossed off all Thursday games, and only played a few late Saturday games.
“I wanted to come up with a holistic view on each matchup,” St. Marie said. He admitted it was fairly time consuming beginning after Thanksgiving week, when he went 5-0 ATS and started to see a path to winning the contest.
It was his first year entering the Circa Million contest; he also entered Survivor and was knocked out.
As for what he’ll do with the money?
“My wife and I will sit down and figure out what to do with it, but travel hockey will certainly be paid for the next few years.”