'A planet in peril': OSU researchers unveil path to fight climate change

PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) – An international team of scientists led by two Oregon State University researchers, are calling for a different pathway to mitigate climate change that will also address social injustice.

The researchers used a novel 500-year database to find a “restorative” pathway for humans to avoid “the worst ecological and social outcomes of climate change,” OSU says.

The scientists say their pathway is inspired by several variables showing how humanity’s resource demand has exploded since 1850. In their study, published Jan. 9 in Environmental Research Letters, the researchers explained they built their pathway from current shared socioeconomic pathways -- which is used by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Among their recommendations, the researchers call for equitable policies on overconsumption, and better education for women and girls – which they say combined with “rights-based” policies could reduce population growth rates. Additionally, they call for decreased fossil fuel emissions, and meat production, along with increased forest land, and improved farming practices.

The researchers argue that their pathway should be included in climate models along with SSPs used by the U.N.

“We understand that our proposed scenario may be a major challenge to implement given current trends in emissions, a lack of political will and widespread social denial, but its merits can’t even be honestly debated if it’s not included in the suite of options,” said researcher William Ripple, distinguished professor of ecology in the OSU College of Forestry and the Richardson Chair in Forest Science.

He continued, "We’re arguing for radical incrementalism: achieving massive change through small, short-term steps. And we’re offering a much-needed contrast to many other climate scenarios, which may be more aligned with the status quo, which isn’t working.”

“The supporting data underscore the urgent need for action,” added researcher Christopher Wolf, now a scientist with Corvallis-based Terrestrial Ecosystems Research Associates. “The growth in human population, gross domestic product and energy consumption, primarily reliant on fossil fuels, has led to an extraordinary surge in greenhouse gas emissions, dramatically altering land use and triggering a massive biodiversity decline.”

Wolf continued, “The SSPs describe plausible developments that in the future would lead to different challenges for climate change mitigation and adaptation,” Wolf said. “They’re based on five narratives that describe alternative socioeconomic developments, some more sustainable than others. Our scenario focuses on reducing the consumption of primary resources to a level that keeps environmental pressures within planetary boundaries, with per capita GDP stabilizing over time.”

While analyzing the dataset, the research team looked at variables including fossil fuel emissions, human population, GDP, land use, greenhouse gas concentrations, global temperature, vertebrate wildlife species abundance, income inequality, and meat production.

“The income share variable extends back to 1820 and shows how the top 10% have consistently received at least 50% of all income, illustrating global economic inequality over the long term,” Ripple said. “The restorative pathway would represent a more equitable and resilient world with a focus on nature preservation as a natural climate solution; societal well-being and quality of life; equality and high levels of education for girls and women, resulting in low fertility rates and higher standards of living; and a rapid transition toward renewable energy.”

Unlike other socioeconomic pathways, the researchers say their plan does not rely on developing carbon capture technology and does not assume continued economic growth.

“By prioritizing large-scale societal change, our proposed pathway could limit warming much more effectively than pathways that support rising resource consumption by wealthy nations,” Ripple said. “We aim to bend the curves on a wide range of planetary vital signs with a holistic vision for addressing climate change, biodiversity loss and socioeconomic injustice. Our work presents a case for how humanity can embark on the journey of saving the world from these environmental and social crises.”

Ripple and Wolf highlighted the severity of climate change -- pointing to their study published in October 2023 that shows Earth's vital signs have worsened “to the point that life on the planet is imperiled.”

“To effectively address climate change, it is essential for governments to take holistic action that prioritizes equity and social justice. However, the situation presents a challenge as the current viewpoint is rooted in continued growth, which limits consideration of different perspectives, including those of diverse and vulnerable populations,” the study says.