NBA Best Bets and Bold Predictions: Celtics vs. Bucks

The top two teams in the Eastern Conference are set to clash for the second time this season Thursday night in Milwaukee. The Boston Celtics won their first game against the Milwaukee Bucks in Boston back in November and now the four-game season series shifts to Fiserv Forum.

The Celtics (29–8) took down the Timberwolves, the current No. 1 seed in the West, 127–120 in overtime at home on Wednesday night. Jayson Tatum matched a season-high 45 points against the best defense in the league and Boston improved to 18–0 at TD Garden. Milwaukee (25–12) has dropped four of its last five, most recently a 132–116 loss to the Jazz on Monday. Though Giannis Antetokounmpo is off to a strong start in January, the Bucks’ defense has struggled mightily in the new year.

Kristaps Porzingis (knee) is questionable for Thursday. The C’s center missed Wednesday’s game against Minnesota.

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Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks Odds

Spread: Celtics +4.5 (-110) | Bucks -4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: BOS (+155) | MIL (-200)
Total: 242.5 — Over (-118) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Thursday, Jan. 11 | 7:30 p.m. ET | TNT

Tatum and Jaylen Brown (35 points) combined for 80 on uber-efficient shooting last time out. That marks four straight games with 30-plus points for Tatum and three in a row for Brown. The last time Boston played Milwaukee, Tatum and Brown led the way on offense and it was a three-point onslaught that ultimately made the difference in a 119–116 Celtics win.

Boston leads the league in three-pointers made per game (16.2) and shoots well from beyond the arc (37.7%). The Bucks rank sixth in made threes (14.2) and actually shoot the ball marginally better than their opponent (37.9%). Offensively, these teams are on par with one another. The key difference is that while the Celtics are second in both offensive and defensive rating, Milwaukee ranks third on offense and 21st on defense. That’s after years of top-10 defenses under coach Mike Budenholzer.

Antetokounmpo is averaging a career-high 31.4 points per game on 60% shooting this season alongside his new running mate, Damian Lillard. The All-Star duo are among the six Bucks players who average 10-plus points per game, and they account for a sizable chunk of the team’s 124.1 points per game average, No. 2 in the NBA only behind the Pacers. Antetokounmpo has gone eight straight games with 25 points and 10 boards and he’s triple-doubled twice during that stretch, but even games like his 48-point, 17-rebound effort in Houston over the weekend haven’t been enough for a Milwaukee win.

This is a rare opportunity to back Boston as an underdog. It’s just the second time all season the Celtics haven’t been favored and in the one game they were getting points, they beat the Kings by 25. What’s more, four of Boston’s eight losses have been by four points or fewer and the team is 4–2 against the spread on no rest. The Bucks, on the other hand, have been a disaster to bet on with a 15–21–1 mark that’s even worse at home (7–11–1). Milwaukee is in a slump and a visit from the Finals favorite is far from a get-right game.

Best Bet: Celtics +4.5 (-110)

Bold Prediction: Giannis Antetokounmpo Records a Triple Double

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