Lake, Gallego neck and neck in hypothetical Arizona Senate match-up: Poll

Former gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake (R) and Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) are neck and neck in a new poll of Arizona voter preferences in a hypothetical 2024 Senate match-up.

The survey by Democratic-leaning firm Public Policy Polling, released Wednesday, showed registered voters in Arizona are split when asked to pick between Lake and Gallego in a hypothetical match-up for the U.S. Senate seat — with 45 percent supporting Gallego and 46 percent supporting Lake. Ten percent said they were not sure.

The gap between the two candidates remained tight when respondents were asked about a hypothetical three-way match-up including Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), who currently holds the seat and has not said whether she plans to run for reelection.

If she does run, the poll suggests Gallego could get more of a boost than Lake. In a hypothetical match-up including all three candidates, Gallego takes a slight lead with 36 percent support, followed by Lake at 35 percent and Sinema at 17 percent. Twelve percent said they were not sure.

The point separating Lake and Gallego in each case is within the margin of error for the poll of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Gallego's support has taken a hit since the firm conducted a similar poll three months ago. The poll was sponsored by the Replace Sinema PAC.

In October 2023, Gallego garnered 48 percent support over Lake’s 43 percent in a hypothetical head-to-head match-up, marking a 5-point lead for Gallego compared with Lake's 1-point lead in the new poll. The previous survey also showed 9 percent said they were not sure whom they would select, compared with 10 percent in the most recent one.

The same month, Gallego was found to hold a more commanding lead over Lake in a hypothetical three-way match-up — with 41 percent support compared with Lake’s 36 percent. That 5-point lead has narrowed to a 1-point lead for Gallego in the recent survey.

Sinema, meanwhile, has seen her support tick up slightly in such a match-up, with 17 percent support in the recent survey, compared with 15 percent in October 2023.

The share of people who said they were not sure who they would vote for in a hypothetical three-way race also increased, with 12 percent unsure in the new poll, compared with 8 percent in October 2023.

The poll was conducted Jan. 5-6, 2024, and surveyed 590 registered Arizona voters. It was conducted via interactive voice response calls to landlines and texts to cell phones.