Iowa winter weather threatens caucus turnout

DES MOINES, Iowa — A powerful blizzard put a freeze on campaign events Friday as candidates look to make their final case to Iowans ahead of Monday’s caucuses. 

Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley’s campaign announced she would hold three telephone town halls in Webster, Plymouth, and Pottawattamie counties Friday after canceling in-person events in those areas. Meanwhile, the pro-DeSantis super PAC Never Back Down postponed events in Clear Lake and Marshalltown, where the governor was slated to speak.  

On top of Friday’s blizzard, extreme lows in the negative teens are expected on caucus night, leading many to question how the inclement weather will impact turnout and results Monday. 

Six inches of snow had fallen in Des Moines as of noon Friday. Johnston reported more than 7 inches of snow, and Fairfield clocked in at 11-and-a-half inches, according to the Des Moines Register. 

Iowa’s Department of Transportation said Friday that U.S. Route 6 in the southwest of the state was “impassable” from near Council Bluffs to Lewis. 

“Dangerous whiteout conditions, drifting snow, and slick roads over most of the state are making travel in Iowa treacherous. Travel is highly discouraged,” the department warned Friday. 

But the inclement weather did not stop the DeSantis campaign from holding two in-person events Friday. The governor attended a breakfast club outside of Des Moines early in the morning and added an event at his "get out the vote" office in Urbandale. 

“The snow is not going to slow down the hardest-working candidate and team in Iowa. We are ADDING an event for this afternoon,” DeSantis campaign spokesperson Andrew Romeo said in a post on X. 

Earlier this week, Never Back Down touted Florida first lady Casey DeSantis’s canvassing efforts during the first snowfall of the week, where she knocked on the campaign's 3 millionth door in Iowa. 

The blizzard comes at a crucial point in the campaign, with three days to go until caucus night. While many caucusgoers have made up their mind, there is still room for movement.

At a Haley event in Ankeny on Thursday, a majority of attendees raised their hands when asked whether this was the first time they had seen Haley in person during the campaign, an indication that caucusgoers are still getting to know the candidates in the final stretch. 

“We do know, of course, that in past caucuses we have often seen a fair amount of movement,” said Timothy Hagel, an American politics professor at the University of Iowa. 

There are workarounds to the weather, including virtual events like the ones Haley’s campaign held Friday. Iowans have also been inundated with phone calls and mailers from the campaigns.

“It may not be as good as a live event, but you do what you can do,” Hagel said. 

Strategists say that it’s better the blizzard hit days before the caucus, because the roads could be clear in time for caucus night. 

“I think the fact that the blizzard is hitting today and not Monday is actually helpful generally for turnout,” said Jimmy Centers, an Iowa-based GOP strategist. 

Even if the blizzard is out of the way by Monday night, caucusgoers will have to brave bone-chilling temperatures as they head to their respective caucus sites. The high Monday is predicted to be minus 3 degrees, while the low could reach minus 13 degrees. 

“The caucus is a unique animal,” Centers said. “There’s a lot that goes into making sure you’re prepared and your supporters are prepared walking into caucus night.”

“This is why you build an organization for this moment, for this time when weather might impede some people from getting out,” he added. 

The campaigns and their allies say they are ready for Monday’s extreme temperatures, pointing to their own organizations’ preparedness and Iowans' experience dealing with low temperatures. 

“We’re Midwesterners. This is like another day in January for us,” said Preya Samsundar, a spokesperson for the pro-Haley Stand for America PAC, adding that clear roads will help turnout. 

“We all had our predictions, we all use modeling to try to determine what turnout is going to be,” DeSantis deputy campaign manager David Polyansky said. “There is no model for minus 20-degree temperatures.”

“What that does, though, favor is people that A) have gone across the state and campaigned in every county and many of them multiple times,” he continued. “But there isn’t a voter that goes to caucus and shows up in those temperatures on Monday night that will not have had the chance or have actually met Ron DeSantis. That’s a big advantage.” 

As for the caucusgoers themselves, many of them signaled that they are ready to brave the cold to get out for their preferred choice. 

“I grew up on a farm here; I’m used to the cold weather,” Iowa resident John Brown, a Haley supporter, told The Hill at a Haley event Thursday. 

“I think it might affect it,” said Brown’s wife, Shelly, who is also supporting Haley. “There’s going to be elderly people who don’t come out, probably.” 

Lower turnout from elderly caucusgoers could prove to be significant, given the voting bloc’s usual strong dependability in caucuses and elections. 

Ron Griener, a Florida transplant who plans to caucus for DeSantis after switching his support from former President Trump, was skeptical about the weather ultimately having a huge impact on turnout. 

“I lived in Florida for 15 years and my blood got thin, so now this affects me worse” Griener exclaimed. “But Iowa people, they’re used to it. I don’t think it will make a difference at all.” 

Ultimately strategists say higher turnout would be the best-case scenario for Trump. 

“I generally think the higher the turnout, the better night Trump is going to have,” Centers said. “But I wouldn’t be too concerned if I’m the former president’s team unless the turnout drops much below 150,000.”