Trump campaign tries to stave off Iowa turnout drop from brutal winter weather
Donald Trump's most urgent problem in the Republican primary is no longer Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley. It's an act of God.
Over the past few days, the former president’s team has been gearing up to ensure that the blizzard conditions blanketing Iowa don’t make their supporters too complacent to vote or leave them, literally, stuck at home.
The campaign is complementing its live events with tele-town halls to reach a broader audience. They’ve begun signing up drivers with 4-wheel-drive cars in key areas to shuttle supporters to caucus sites. They’re also pushing for more neighbor-to-neighbor contacts, in hopes that a local touch will prove persuasive in convincing people to bear the negative 20 degree wind chill to back a candidate who has repeatedly boasted about his robust polling lead.
“We are confident in Iowa local government ensuring that parking is clear and roads driveable for the caucus,” said senior Trump campaign adviser Chris LaCivita. “Iowans are used to this kind of weather … D.C.-based reporters, not so much.”
The confidence may owe to the belief that Trump has a large enough lead to afford some dip in caucus turnout — and to the realization that every campaign has to figure out how to maneuver around the once-in–a-decade weather.
But public comments from the campaign in recent days suggest some fear about turnout. At an event in Urbandale, Iowa on Thursday afternoon, Donald Trump Jr. blamed a “psyop” to depress voter turnout. “They're trying to get you to have that attitude … ’Donald Trump is winning by 7,462 points, you should stay home.’”
At a rally last week, the ex-president himself warned his supporters to ignore the weather and avoid complacency. “The only way we can get hurt is if you sit home and watch the great results on television,” he said.
Critical to the Trump campaign’s success will be driving out first-time caucusgoers who are at risk not of switching candidates but of staying home altogether. Polling shows that a majority of people who plan to participate in a caucus for the first time on Monday support Trump.
Nathaniel Gavronsky, a precinct caucus captain for Trump from rural Wayne County, said he has been telling first time caucusgoers the process is simple: “You show up to a community center, drink free coffee, listen to your friends talk, and put a name in a hat.”
But critical to all of it, of course, is that they show up.
“Will the weather affect some people? Maybe. But even those first time caucusgoers are going to want to hang out with their friends who we have been working with for months. We had a mass text coming out a few weeks ago trying to arrange rides to caucus sites,” he said.
The Trump campaign is relying on its network of local precinct captains, like Gavronsky, to push their “Ten for Trump” — mobilizing at least 10 neighbors or friends to appear on Monday to support the former president.
The campaign’s local efforts in the state have included hundreds of caucus training sessions with supporters and “Commit to Caucus” events with Trump aimed at lining up volunteers and securing caucus commitment cards from people pledging to caucus for the former president this Monday. The campaign commissioned training books and sent out videos depicting exactly how to caucus. And captains were given a white cap with gold embroidery for their caucus recruitment efforts.
“Modern campaigns have taken the people out of politics. This isn’t a spreadsheet. We didn’t hire people from out of state. We are a local organization run by locals, there isn’t a secret sauce,” LaCivita said.
But the weather has already thrown a wrench in plans across the state in the days leading up to the caucus. On Friday, the Trump campaign canceled an event with Kari Lake, an Iowa native herself, who had flown out from Arizona but found herself stuck at a downtown hotel. Nikki Haley scrapped in-person events and held a tele-town hall instead. Ron DeSantis made it out for two events, but canceled other plans. Vivek Ramaswamy meanwhile forged ahead despite the snowstorm.
And it’s still unclear whether Trump — who has spent two days this week in courtrooms hundreds of miles away from Iowa — will be able to fly his Boeing 757 into the state for back-to-back events Saturday through Monday.
Lake said she found the national media response to the weather “a little bit humorous.”
“The people of Iowa are pretty tough,” Lake said from the lobby of her hotel in downtown Des Moines. “A blizzard is not fun. But they’ve been through it before.”
“I mean, if you can't get there, if the roads aren't cleared, that could be difficult. But we're going to try to help and make sure everybody can get out and get to the caucus,” she added.
Trump ally Laura Loomer, who has been trolling his rivals across Iowa this week, posted on X that the blizzard was actually “Deep State” “weather manipulation” by Haley to rig the caucus against Trump. (“It was clearly a joke,” she said later.)
Iowa political veterans called the weather an X-factor on the caucuses’ outcome, and are already predicting the turnout will be lower than 2016, when over 180,000 Iowans caucused.
“I haven’t seen any data to suggest it’s disproportional for Trump,” David Kochel, a Republican strategist with roots in Iowa, said of the possible drop in turnout. “I think one could argue that he has the greatest share of first time caucusgoers, and they may be more inclined to skip than a die-hard, never-miss-it type of activist. But one could also argue that the average Trump supporter has a higher level of intensity.”
It’s possible that conditions improve somewhat by the time caucuses begin Monday evening. While Monday’s temperatures are expected to be bone-chilling, according to the National Weather Service —the high is forecast to be -3 and the low -12 —, precipitation is not expected. That could give road crews time to dig out from Friday’s blizzard.
Chris Janda, a Trump supporter from Des Moines, shrugged off the impact Mother Nature will have come Monday.
“We’re Iowans. We know this weather. We understand what it is,” Janda said, pointing to the fact that cold temperatures— and not snow — will be the main weather obstacle on Monday. “We always find a way.”
Ryan Lizza contributed to this report.