In the NFL Draft, picking first is no promise of greatness

The Bears are in the market for a college quarterback, be it with the first overall pick or the ninth. General manager Ryan Poles vowed Wednesday to analyze all the top prospects before deciding whether to draft one or stick with Justin Fields.

What he wants to learn goes beyond the field.

“It’s not just the film,” he said. “Like, I need the person. There’s a whole process here that we have to figure out. But what we’re going to do is do what’s best for the organization.”

In the NFL Draft, though, even the sure things aren’t sure things. That’s one thing he’ll have to weigh when deciding whether to use the Panthers’ No. 1 overall pick on a quarterback. USC’s Caleb Williams has a dynamism that reminds some of Patrick Mahomes. North Carolina’s Drake Maye has more prototypical size and arm strength. In any other year, Maye would be an obvious No. 1 pick.

That draft slot doesn’t guarantee success, if NFL history is any indication.

Bears fans looking for a savior with the No. 1 overall pick might want to look away.

First is rarely best

The first quarterback drafted has rarely turned out to be the best in his class.

It has happened just once since 2015 — when the Cardinals took Kyler Murray No. 1 in 2019. He had weak competition, too — No. 6 pick Daniel Jones, who got a second contract with the Giants, and the late Dwayne Haskins, who managed 13 career starts with Washington after being picked 15th.

C.J. Stroud, the Ohio State alum picked second overall by the Texans last year, would certainly be drafted ahead of No. 1 pick Bryce Young were the Panthers to get a do-over. His 273.9 passing yards per game led the NFL, and his 4,108 passing yards are more than that of any passer in Bears history.

The best quarterback taken in 2022 was, amazingly, the last pick of the last round. The 49ers’ Brock Purdy, “Mr. Irrelevant,” will finish in the top five in MVP voting this year.

Pro Football Reference’s Weighted Approximate Value, which assigns a weight to each player’s career, considers the Bears’ Justin Fields — not No. 1 pick Trevor Lawrence — the best quarterback drafted in 2021.

The Bengals’ Joe Burrow is a slam dunk, right? He’d probably go No. 1 if the 2020 draft were held again. But despite reaching the Super Bowl in one of his two healthy seasons, Burrow ranks behind No. 6 pick Justin Herbert and second-rounder Jalen Hurts in WAV. The reason: Each has played 10 more regular-season games than Burrow.

Baker Mayfield, the first pick of the 2018 draft, has since been trumped by Lamar Jackson, the last pick of Round 1, and No. 7 pick Josh Allen. Then there’s the fateful 2017 season — don’t remind Bears fans — when No. 10 Mahomes and even No. 12 Deshaun Watson topped Mitch Trubisky, the first quarterback chosen.

It’s a dart throw

Since the NFL established a rookie wage scale in its 2011 collective-bargaining agreement, 41 quarterbacks have been drafted in Round 1. Their combined record as a starter is below .500 — 1,047-1,057-7.

Only one quarterback drafted during that span — Mahomes — has led his team to a championship. Three others lost in the Super Bowl.

The lesson, besides the fact that Tom Brady — a sixth-round pick — kept the younger generation out of the Super Bowl for a decade? Picking a quarterback in Round 1 produces more mediocrity than greatness.

Drafting a franchise quarterback — and a player who starts and finishes his career with your team — is becoming a myth. From 2010 to ’18, 12 quarterbacks were taken with a top-three pick. Only one stayed with his team his entire career, and that was the Colts’ Andrew Luck, who retired at 29. The other 11, which include Trubisky, have played for 33 teams — an average of three per player.

There’s no staying power

Injuries can spoil a career in the NFL unlike in any other sport. First overall picks aren’t immune.

Luck, the Stanford star considered the most unimpeachable quarterback to come out of college since Peyton Manning in 1998, was betrayed by his body. He missed all of 2017 after labrum surgery and had chronic injuries to his foot when he retired suddenly after a Colts-Bears preseason game in 2019. Luck wound up playing 86 career games, as many as Mayfield has under his belt.

Murray missed 15 games over the last two seasons because of a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his knee. Burrow was limited to 10 games this season and in 2021.

It’s rare that a quarterback is healthy enough, long enough, to compare to top picks at other positions. The WAV career leaderboard for active players skews toward veterans and includes just one No. 1 overall pick, at any position, in its top 38: Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford, who ranks fourth.

The top 50 features six quarterbacks taken in the first round (Mahomes, Jackson, Allen, Joe Flacco, Ryan Tannehill and Jared Goff) but five taken outside of it (Russell Wilson, Andy Dalton, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr and Dak Prescott).

The Bears would rather pick first than anywhere else. The pick, though, is no promise of greatness.