5 things to watch as shutdown deadline looms

Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are growing concerned about the chances of a partial government shutdown as tensions rise over spending.  

With less than a week until some agencies could face a lapse in funding, there is plenty of uncertainty around what kind of legislation could muster enough support to pass both chambers.

Here’s what to watch as Congress inches closer to the shutdown threat.

Will Johnson continue to hold the line? 

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) announced a bipartisan spending deal last weekend, setting top-line number for negotiators to work from when crafting Congress’s 12 annual government funding bills for fiscal 2024.  

But the deal outraged conservatives, who staged a floor revolt Wednesday and demanded lower funding levels.

Hard-line conservatives met with Johnson in his office Thursday to try to sell him on an alternative spending plan, a meeting that caused consternation across the Capitol and left many lawmakers, including Republicans, worried that the chances of a shutdown could be growing.

Johnson told reporters Friday that the “top-line agreement remains.” 

“We are getting our next steps together, and we are working toward a robust appropriations process. So, stay tuned for all that,” he said.  

Johnson also met with moderate Republicans, and Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) left that meeting saying that based on his “informed intuition,” the Speaker is not considering reneging on the deal.

But conservatives are holding out hope. Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), the chair of the House Freedom Caucus, said Friday he was “quite certain [Johnson] is legitimately considering alternatives.”

What a stopgap could look like? 

Leaders are making clear that a stopgap known as a continuing resolution (CR) will be needed next week to prevent a partial government shutdown.

Rep. Rosa DeLauro (Conn.), the top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, said Friday that “it's about a month that we need to put these bills together” once negotiators receive allocations for each of the 12 full-year bills. 

“I can't sit down and decide what is going in Labor-HHS or not going without knowing what we're marking to,” DeLauro said. 

But it’s not yet clear what that stopgap would look like, how long it would last, and whether it would mirror the two-tiered deadlines in the previous CR.

Sen. John Thune (S.D.), the upper chamber’s No. 2 Republican, suggested a CR heading into the “March time frame” as a potential option to buy appropriators enough time to conference the funding bills, while also noting ramped talks around a foreign aid package. 

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) announced plans to bring up a stopgap next week to prevent a shutdown. 

“Unfortunately, it has become crystal clear that it will take more than a week to finish the appropriations process. So, today I am taking the first procedural step for the Senate to pass a temporary extension of government funding, so the government does not shut down,” he said. 

Funding allocations 

Negotiators have yet to receive the funding allocations for each of the 12 spending bills, though some hope they will in the next few days as they look to quickly conference spending measures.

Appropriators initially said they expected to receive their allocations this week, though some are already speculating more time is needed for top negotiators to hash out numbers for the funding bills.

“I mean the difficulty is that, with less money, everybody's trying to figure out how to make this work,” Sen. Jerry Moran (Kan.), the top Republican on the subcommittee that crafts funding for departments of Commerce and Justice, said this week.  

While some negotiators have said they’ve had informal spending talks with their counterparts in the opposite chamber, they’ve also cited the lack of allocations as a key holdup keeping them from putting together their spending bills.

Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.), another appropriator, said Wednesday that appropriators “can’t do anything” until they receive another batch of numbers setting the levels for each of the 12 bills. 

In comments to reporters Friday, Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), a spending cardinal, also cited the Department of Homeland Security as a potential factor behind the delay as senators negotiate a separate border and foreign aid package.

“If there's going to be additional money there, that would affect potentially what you would want to put in a regular appropriations bill,” Cole said, adding, “They're not directly related, but it's a legitimate issue to raise, and I think Democrats in particular are very concerned about that.” 

What will conservatives do?

Conservatives have been fuming since Johnson announced the top-line deal, adding to some speculation that his job could be at risk.  

With just a two-vote margin in the lower chamber, all eyes are on the Freedom Caucus and its allies to see if they will throw up additional hurdles.

While many Republicans have sought to shut down chatter around ousting Johnson, the right flank has been upping the pressure.

Johnson said Wednesday he was “not concerned” about being ousted after Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), a prominent member of the House Freedom Caucus, didn’t rule out backing a motion to remove the Speaker over the top-line deal. 

“Chip Roy is one of my closest friends. We agree on almost everything in principle,” the leader said. “Look, leadership is tough. You take a lot of criticism. But remember: I am a hard-line conservative. That’s what they used to call me.” 

The effort by the right flank also has not gone without pushback from others in the party who have voiced frustration with the so-called “temper tantrums” of their colleagues.  

What agencies are at risk? 

Under the last stopgap measure passed by Congress, funding is expected to lapse for several agencies after Jan. 19, including the departments of Transportation; Housing and Urban Development; Energy; and Agriculture. 

The deadline for the remaining government agencies with funding subject to the annual appropriations process is Feb. 2.