The War Against World Supply Chains Turns Hot(ter)

After 20 plus attacks since November 19, 2023, on Merchant Shipping and at least three ship seizures, the Naval War in the Middle East is expanding.  On January 12, 2024, with much telegraphing, a U.S.-led coalition struck 60 targets at 16 sites in Yemen and then followed up with a second wave of attacks shortly after. The centerpiece of the multi-nation naval force is the U.S.S. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group (CSG), while partner nations including the United Kingdom, Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands participated alongside.

The response package sounded impressive, but there are policy questions that need to be addressed, such as what is the strategic end state sought?  What are the causal factors?  How are these events the same or different from past conflicts in the Middle East over the last 50 years?  In some ways, we’ve seen this before, and the outcomes have been unclear because objectives and end states were not clearly established by American leadership.  In other ways, the campaign by Iran, mostly through proxies like the Houthis of Yemen, the Somalis, Hamas, Hezbollah, and others, is different and represents a sophisticated strategic line of effort by China to topple America as the center of world affairs.  The quiet part out loud was said by a Professor at the Chinese National War College who said the Houthis are doing China “a big favor” by cutting off world supply chains.

“Degrading” the Houthis

The initial press release by the Department of Defense gave the immediate indicators of a “forever war” mindset where the DOD was confident the strikes were effective in “degrading” the Houthis.  Bringing American Warfighters into harm’s way to degrade, and destroy enemy forces shooting at them is concerning.  “Shoot to graze or nick” or send some kind of virtue signal is not the purpose of almost $850B of FY 2024 defense spending and should be called out at the beginning as the wrong mindset which puts American involvement on the wrong azimuth from the beginning.  This is, unfortunately, the intellectual approach though of the Biden Team, which has lectured the Israelis at length on “proportionality” as they bring Hamas to justice and/or a rightful ending.  I try to call balls and strikes fairly – there is a faint legal precept and citation of the concept of “proportionality” with the Laws of Land warfare, but the Biden Team gets it wrong – there is nothing prohibiting a military force from destroying and killing their opponent, especially when they are under fire themselves.

The initial strike statistics on the Houthis seemed to imply effectiveness, but so did the early statistics from Desert Storm, Operation Enduring Freedom, Operation Iraqi Freedom, and so on.  There should be extreme vigilance in ensnaring the United States in a continuation of the forever war mentality of multiple Presidential Administrations that have expended a great amount of American blood and treasure with little to show for it.  However, there is also a significant difference this time, which demands even greater vigilance.  Yemen and the Houthis should be considered a proxy of Iran, which is a proxy of China.  As the Chinese Military Professor inadvertently revealed, in the grand panorama of events, World War III is already in progress, and the relentless campaign on merchant shipping and blocking of sea lanes should be acknowledged as what it is: a “Battle of the North Atlantic” equivalent as China deftly uses proxies to asphyxiate the world economic order.

75 deployable U.S. Navy Ships?

The deployed U.S. and Allied naval elements have performed admirably and have shown the prowess of Western military capabilities and tactics, and have swatted down dozens of attacks by Houthi cruise missiles, drones, and even “anti-ship” ballistic missiles.  A well-earned “Bravo Zulu” in the Maritime and Air Domain – but demonstrating world-class badminton skills is not driving America on the pathway to achieving the strategic end state.  What it has demonstrated is that a small number of overworked ships, aircraft, and incredible Service Members are overstretched and over-committed to only one front of World War III.

Recently, Vice Admiral Roy Kitchener set a significant goal and metric.  “75 mission-capable ships on any given day”was that goal and metric.  Some appeared to applaud; I had to read it twice.  With a U.S. Navy battle force of just under 300 ships, this means only 25% of ships are available for worldwide duty, which I presume includes tests, exercises, freedom of navigation exercises, and so on.  In the context of U.S. Navy history, no criticism intended, but 75 is not an impressive number in light of worldwide events.  Easily half that number of ships are already committed in one way or another to the broad events in the Mediterranean and the Middle East.  The new Chief of Naval Operations is citing a “1930s moment” with the national imperative to grow the fleet; I strongly concur with rapid growth – but we must be absolutely transparent and intellectually honest – we’ve been stuck in this “1930s moment” for at least ten years.  We must have accountability, change, and new leadership across the board to move with national alacrity on this matter.

What is the strategic end state, and how is it arrived at?

We don’t want America to be caught in a continuation of the pointless “forever war” that only serves the globalists and the military-industrial complex.  But we do need to acknowledge that China is deftly conducting World War III on many fronts to collapse the American-led world system.  Secretary of Defense Austin conducting one of the most bizarre and stealthy absences ever by a Secretary of Defense is one of the first that should be replaced.  Due process should be allowed, but I can’t fathom any possible reason or excuse for such a chain of events.  Courageously ordering the strikes on the Houthis from his hospital bed doesn’t quite make up for his unexplained absence.

The establishment of clear national objectives is needed from the Biden Administration.  Part of those objectives include actionable and achievable strategic end states, but also clear metrics, deliverables, and schedules on spinning up the Defense Industrial Base and firmly holding leaders accountable.  We need this now and then Americans will decide in November (if we have election integrity) who they want to lead America in the next phases of World War III with China, it’s here whether we like it or realize it.

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