What are the biggest reasons for the Detroit Lions’ turnaround?
The Lions have come so far in the last few years.
Hats off to the Detroit Lions. They’ve done what many didn’t believe would happen, and turned one of the NFL’s star-crossed franchises into one of the league’s best teams. The Lions’ locked up the NFC North for the first time ever and will host a playoff game as the third seed in the NFC.
What are the biggest reasons for this Lions turnaround? I wrote about the three main reasons Detroit has emerged as a contender in 2023.
Brad Holmes’ drafting
When general manager Brad Holmes took over for Bob Quinn in 2021, the Lions were a drafting mess. The 2019 and 2020 drafts, outside of T.J. Hockenson and Jonah Jackson, had been a disaster. In fact, of the four drafts that preceded Holmes’ arrival, only two players - Jackson and Frank Ragnow - have been positive impact contributors for the Lions this season. Holmes inherited almost nothing to work with, and proceeded to launch one of the better three-year draft runs we have seen in a long time.
In 2021, Holmes drafted Penei Sewell at no. 7 overall, now one of the best right tackles in the NFL. Sewell is the offense’s vocal and emotional leader and has been the face of the aggression and physicality that has marked the current Detroit Lions. Second-round pick Levi Onwuzurike has battled injuries, but the rest of that draft has been remarkable. Defensive tackle Alim McNeill has been a breakout star this season, safety Ifeatu Melifonwu has been one of the stories of the second half of the season since being promoted to a starting spot and Amon-Ra St. Brown tied for second in the NFL in catches while earning an All-Pro spot. The team’s other fourth-round pick, Derrick Barnes, has become one of the more steady off-ball linebackers in the league during his impressive third season.
The 2022 class hasn’t been as impactful, but still looks like a winning draft. Aidan Hutchinson isn’t a tier 1 edge defender, but he’s improved in year two and is clearly the Lions’ best pass rusher. Without him, that front would be in real trouble. His motor and physicality are a defining feature of Aaron Glenn’s defense. Few players represent what a team wants to be about more than Hutchinson. Third-round pick Kerby Joseph led the team in interceptions with four. His increasingly stable play after some midseason foibles has been a lifesaver for a Lions defense missing Chauncey Gardner-Johnson.
The quiet emergence of Jameson Williams in December was great to watch, but derailed by injury. His demeanor is different from many players Detroit has drafted over Holmes’ tenure, but he finally seems more bought in and is producing as a result. He’s making tough catches over the middle of the field, he’s blocking and, perhaps most importantly, he looks like a real threat after the catch.
Almost impossibly, this year’s rookie class could top the other two classes. Three of the team’s first four picks are already among the best players in the league at their positions. As rookies, Sam LaPorta went absolutely bonkers with contested catches, nearly setting the NFL record for rookie tight ends in multiple categories. Brian Branch has been a dominant slot cornerback, elite against the run and capable of playing any coverage scheme at a high level on passing downs. Oh, and he’s an amazing blitzer too. He’s a playmaker in a league with too few of them defensively.
And top pick Jahmyr Gibbs? He took a man’s soul on in Week 16 with one of the highlights of the entire NFL season. Gibbs ran his season totals to 945 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. He’s averaging more than 5.2 yards per carry. I think he’s already one of the most dangerous players in the league with the ball in his hands.
Even the team’s second first-rounder this year, Jack Campbell, has been pretty solid when called upon this season. No GM bats 1.000 in the draft, but Holmes is coming as close as it gets. His impressive foresight, eye for talent, and roster construction has quickly turned the Lions into one of the best rosters in the NFL. That’s the absolute most important part of their success.
Dan Campbell’s impact
As well as Holmes has drafted, that kind of hit rate doesn’t happen unless coaches are developing players like crazy. Almost every player to stick around or enter into the Lions culture under Dan Campbell has gotten better. The evidence is absolutely everywhere. Campbell assembled a coaching staff of great teachers, and the results are all over the roster.
It’s not just the development of players that makes Campbell such a great coach. It’s also his in-game decision-making. Who would have thought that a non-play caller would make for such an excellent situational decision-maker as a head coach? Campbell has consistently found advantages for his team during games by being aggressive in fourth down situations, especially inside the opponent’s 40. He hates settling for field goals, he trusts his offense to execute in 4th-and-manageable situations and he trusts his defense to get stops when the offense can’t convert. So far this season, it has massively paid off.
On the season, the Lions had the second-most 4th down attempts behind the perpetually trailing Panthers. They’ve only converted around a league average rate, but Campbell trusts the process anyway, knowing what the analytics say about being aggressive. More often than not, good process will lead to good results. And few teams have gotten better results than the Lions this season.
Jared Goff
One of the craziest things about the Lions turnaround is that they’ve done it without an elite quarterback. However, admitting that Goff isn’t elite is not the same thing as calling him trash. The Lions signal-caller was cast off from the Rams in relative disgrace, a former No. 1 overall pick who many believed couldn’t play without Sean McVay in his ear.
But Goff has flipped that narrative on its head, enjoying one of the best seasons of his career in 2023. The 29-year old has easily proven to be one of the top 15-20 quarterbacks in the league, especially given his improvements over three years in Detroit. Goff has the lowest turnover-worthy play percentage, the highest adjusted completion percentage and the second-fastest time to throw of his career.
Perhaps most importantly, Goff has rarely been sacked. Only four other teams have had their quarterback taken down with the lack of frequency Detroit has this season. Obviously Goff isn’t elusive, so he avoids these negative plays by being mentally sharp and consistently making quick decisions from the pocket. Also, his mastery of the offense and properly setting protections helps too.
Will Goff be good enough to get his team to the Super Bowl? Win a Super Bowl? That remains to be seen. He is still more limited than the Pat Mahomes and Josh Allens of the world, but there are few quarterbacks better at playing in structure than he is.