Mailbag: Strategy for WSU and OSU, poaching penalty for MW schools, Cal and Stanford in the ACC and more
The Hotline mailbag publishes each Friday. Send questions to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and include ‘mailbag’ in the subject line. Or hit me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline.
Please note: Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.
With the hefty price to lure Mountain West teams into a rebuilt Pac-12, what’s the strategy for Washington State and Oregon State? — @NoahSaxon72
At its most basic level, the strategy has little connection to the Mountain West. Instead, WSU and OSU are staying as flexible as possible and monitoring the landscape.
If another realignment wave hits — a wave triggered by the fracturing of the ACC — the two schools plan to be well-positioned for any opportunities at the power conference level.
But let’s imagine a world in which the status quo holds: The ACC stays intact; the Big 12 remains content with its structure; and the ‘Pac-2’ schools have no options but to rebuild the conference.
The agreement with the Mountain West, as reported by the Oregonian, carries hefty penalties for poaching, including a $10 million (approximate) fee for every school that accepts an invitation to join the Pac-12 before the summer of 2027.
In other words, an attempt by WSU and OSU to grab six Mountain West schools (to form an eight-team conference) would carry a price tag in the $60 million range.
They have the money: A war chest of approximately $200 million, courtesy of the Rose Bowl contract and NCAA Tournament distributions, should be available.
But to what extent do the Cougars and Beavers plan to use those assets to fund their athletic operations, as opposed to rebuilding the conference?
That’s one of many decisions looming.
However, one source with knowledge of the agreement described the penalty as “not enough to prevent anyone from leaving” the Mountain West to join the rebuilt Pac-12.
Notably, the source added that the per-school cost (about $10 million) had been “hammered down” from the original proposal.
Our guess: The Mountain West schools most vulnerable to getting left behind (San Jose State, Utah State, Nevada, Hawaii) pushed for a big number to dissuade the ‘Pac-2’ from poaching, while the schools likely to make the jump (San Diego State, Fresno State, Boise State) insisted on what they viewed as a reasonable number.
That said, the Hotline has yet to see a departure fee that cannot be negotiated down when it comes time for the departing schools to exit. Heck, the Pac-12 just reached a settlement, and it didn’t have an exit penalty.
(That was one of many mistakes made over the years by the university presidents, who didn’t believe anyone would ever leave the conference.)
All of which is to say the following:
The stipulations within the agreement won’t stop WSU and OSU from poaching the top Mountain West football schools if that, in fact, becomes their strategy.
Nothing will happen in the near term. For now, WSU and OSU will compete as a two-team conference with all eyes on the roiling ACC.
Was Washington offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb on many prospective head-coaching lists? — @bdgiddens6
If so, his name was never made public. However, he assuredly is on Washington’s list — and quite possibly at the top — following the departure of Kalen DeBoer.
In our view, the Huskies have two options with Grubb: Promote him soon, or hire someone else.
What they cannot do: Enter a lengthy coaching search in which the school is rejected by outside candidates, then come back around to Grubb.
In that scenario, it would be clear to everyone that he wasn’t the first choice, thereby undermining his legitimacy. Internal candidates must be the school’s first choice or not the choice.
I’m curious if anyone has analyzed the carbon footprint of the Pac-12’s dissolution? Surely, there will be incrementally more cross-country flights, chartering teams to and fro. — Andrew Reddaway
Not that I’m aware, but it stands to reason that the carbon footprint will expand — more for the schools entering the Big Ten and ACC than the Big 12.
Rest assured: Once the competition schedules are set for 2024-25, the Hotline will examine that topic.
How much would the ‘Pac-10’ media rights be worth in light of the bowl results? — @scubattack
If the 10 schools had stuck together through the 2023 season, any resulting media deal would have been based more on regular-season success than the outcome of the bowl games.
And the strategy would have led to a lucrative deal for all 10 and secured the conference’s future.
However, that approach wasn’t reasonable given the financial pressures on the campuses and the manner by which commissioner George Kliavkoff managed the presidents.
Instead, the constant delays undercut his credibility, and trust dissolved.
What do you think the ‘Pac-2’ bowl situation for next year looks like? Are any of the current bowl contracts still valid, or will the schools be hunting around with ESPN Events for a spot? — @AmbitiousCoug
The bowl contracts must be overhauled with the demise of the conference, but we’re confident Washington State and Oregon State will have bowl berths available if they clear the six-win eligibility threshold.
The schools will have far more appeal to bowl games than many others.
And yes, ESPN will broker the deals. It essentially controls the postseason.
Why did Washington State president Kirk Schulz request that the College Football Playoff board delay voting to change the automatic qualification format? — @CelestialMosh
Admittedly, we don’t know the specifics behind Schulz’s request. The presidents typically keep their discussions private, and we have not spoken to Schulz in the days since the decision.
However, the delay doesn’t change the outcome: The CFP will shift the access format from six automatic qualifiers and six at-large bids to five automatics and seven at-larges.
With the demise of the Pac-12 reducing the number of power conferences to four, the change would leave one automatic bid for the top Group of Five team.
The other 11 spots will be divided between the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC, with the latter two gobbling the majority.
How do the Cal and Stanford football teams stack up in the ACC vis-a-vis how they stacked up in the Pac-12? — @RadioPirate99
In essentially the same fashion. After all, the ACC and the Pac-12 have more similarities than differences from a competitive standpoint.
Both conferences feature a few football powers but lack quality depth. The ACC has Florida State and Clemson, plus a scheduling agreement with Notre Dame, while the Pac-12 has (had) USC, Oregon and Washington.
Of course, the very same institutional challenges that undercut their football success in the Pac-12 will hound the Bay Area schools in the ACC.
The Bears and Cardinal could finish in the top half of the conference standings on a regular basis if they have the necessary resources.
The obstacles are internal more than external.
Is college football as us old guys knew it (loyalty, passionate regional pride, being ‘true to your school’) dead? –@mjhusky
The sport is changing at an ever-accelerating pace. In some regards (e.g., the transfer portal), it’s completely unhinged. But being ‘true to your school’ is, in fact, the root cause of so much chaos.
Why should players be limited in their ability to switch schools when coaches are not?
Why should players be excluded from financial benefits when they were vital to the revenue-generation process?
The push for athletes’ rights is fueling many of the changes we see — and will continue to see.
At some point in the next three-to-five years, there will be a revenue-sharing agreement between schools and players, which will create immense financial pressures and lead to additional restructuring of the sport.
Do you regret not being critical about commissioner George Kliavkoff’s grandiose Pac-12 media deal? — @mlondo856
During the 13 months in which the Pac-12 attempted to negotiate its media rights deal, the Hotline held firm to four pillars:
— The Big Ten, not the Big 12, was the primary existential threat.
— The ‘Four Corners’ schools would only leave for the Big 12 if they felt there was no option to stay.
— The Big 12 and Pac-12 carried roughly the same media valuation.
— Pac-12 survival was more likely than not but hardly guaranteed.
We never believed, as Kliavkoff did — and espoused — that the future of the conference was secure. Throughout the winter and spring, Hotline listed Pac-12 survival as a 4-point favorite over Pac-12 extinction, which translates to a mere 60 percent probability.
That wasn’t exactly a ringing endorsement of Kliavkoff’s strategic acumen.
I have zero regrets. Our pillars proved accurate within a reasonable framework given the complicated nature of media rights negotiations.
With the demise of the Pac-12, what will be your college football focus in 2024? — @DavidJBrown19
Our focus will be the Big Ten, the Big 12, the ‘Pac-2’ and the ACC.
In other words, we will continue covering the West Coast and Mountain Time Zone schools and the issues that affect them on the field and off.
Especially off.
College football is entering a stretch of unprecedented change that will impact everyone, and the Hotline intends to help fans understand the complicated connective tissue.
More immediately, our forecasts for the 2024 conference races will be published in the next week or two, as soon as the coaching carousel stops spinning.
Will history be kind to the Pac-12? — @MrEd315
History will be kind to Pac-12 athletes and coaches and the conference’s incredible success over many decades, especially with Olympic sports.
History won’t be kind to the Pac-12 presidents and commissioners (Larry Scott and George Kliavkoff) whose strategic mistakes, arrogance, ignorance and incompetence led to the demise of the conference as we know it.
That said, our hunch is the Pac-12 name lives on — not just for the next two years but beyond that as college sports undergoes monumental restructuring.
Basketball and the Olympic sports will reform around regional leagues. The only question is whether football does, as well.
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