WINS AND LOSSES ON INJURY NEWS
Well, my friends, it would seem the xG warriors and the underlying performance pirates are on the rampage, pillaging old tweets of folk who went far too aggressively against the team in December.
Arsenal comfortably with the best attack in the league by npxG since jesus came back from injury late november. 21.03 npxG, liverpool in second with 17.86 npxG. Lazy narratives gonna narrative.
— Seewrap (@craptor) January 22, 2024
With a shot chaser from Scott Willis.
Since Jesus came back from his last knee injury Arsenal have 2.2 non-pen xG (best) and are +1.28 in non-pen difference (best) https://t.co/R7pEJbyLbG
— Scott Willis (@scottjwillis) January 22, 2024
… and hot dang, I’m feeling frisky. Gabriel Jesus might only have 3 Premier League goals this season, but his impact on the team from an xG perspective is a sight to behold. I know people find these performance metrics boring, but to have a better output than Liverpool, the league’s xG monsters, is surprising to me.
Here’s what we don’t know about these numbers. Is the correction in performance against Crystal Palace a sign of things to come? Or will we revert to creating loads of nice chances but no one to finish them?
This is the faith part of xG. You either believe we’ll start scoring more goals than xG like last season or you don’t. I think we have a 5th gear to hit over the next 2 months and Palace was the start of something special. So we’ll see where this ends.
Injury news was positive. Declan Rice will be in the squad for the Forest game. That really does feel like an important moment. There’s no point in seeing Thomas Partey back in the side if we don’t have Declan. Thomas gives us new options we haven’t seen before… but he can’t be trusted alone. Declan is essential to us controlling Liverpool.
Thomas Partey will also be in contention for the Forest game. I’m expecting to see him on the bench so he can be ready for the Liverpool game. That’s a very sexy option for Arsenal to have and it’s one that will be consequential for success in the major tournaments we’re fighting for.
There was also an update on Jurrier Timber. Sami Mokbel said he’ll start training with everyone else at the end of February. There are some saying this means he’ll be in contention for first-team action in February, which you should categorically dismiss. I’d pencil him in for a squad appearance in the two weeks after the March international break. I’ve been over it plenty of times on here as to why late March is most likely, but you don’t need to take my word for it now, if he’s doing real work with the player at the end of February, you can see why even a late March date is cutting it close.
He has to go from ball work on his own to getting chased down by Declan Rice and Kai Havertz. He’ll be doing a lot more intermittent sprinting, he’ll be cutting back at speeds fast enough to fool the best players in the world, and he’ll be getting booted around. Not to mention the pressure in his mind.
‘Will my knee blow?’
‘Where has my form gone?’
‘Am I slower?’
We also have to remember he only played a tiny part of our season. He is coming from Eredivisie. It’ll take him time to adapt to the league.
Thomas Partey hadn’t trained with the team just before Liverpool when people were saying he’d be back early. His hopeful return against Forest will be 6 weeks from that date. He had surgery, was keen to get back, and it took him time.
Transfer-wise, it’s all a little bit dead. We were offered Benzema and said no. Not sure picking up 5 months of his £100m wages was ever going to fly, nor was a player who doesn’t have the off the ball movement we need. Fabrizio thinks there might be some late window action for The Smith, but only if there’s a sale. Who can you see spending £35m here? Not many. As predicted in December, it’s seeming very unlikely we’ll make any moves this window. It’s best that way if you like busy summers.
Final piece of news. Mo Salah has come back injured from AFCON. It’s serious. Apparently. We’ll believe that when we don’t see him lining up to harrass Zinchenko at The Emirates.
It’s a quiet old January.
Ok, that’s me done.
See you in the comments.
Make sure you check out the latest podcast with Janan Ganesh from The FT. He’s top-tier.