Biden's Democratic challengers seek to beat expectations in New Hampshire

President Biden's Democratic primary challengers are hoping for a symbolic victory in New Hampshire Tuesday as they seek momentum in their long-shot bids for the nomination.

Challengers Marianne Williamson and Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) likely have their best chance at success in the primary Tuesday after focusing their campaigns in the state for months and with Biden not officially on the ballot.

But Democratic strategists are casting doubt on the idea that a strong showing by either candidate would mean much, even if a grassroots write-in campaign supporting Biden doesn't win as expected.

“I don't think it really amounts to anything. And quite frankly, one I don't know what exceeding expectations is for them either, but whatever it is, what do you do with it?” New Hampshire Democratic strategist Jim Demers said. “Because the process that lies ahead, most names you hear, have no organization in any of the upcoming states.”

The New Hampshire Democratic primary will be a contest without precedent. More than a dozen candidates will appear on the Democratic ballot in the state, most notably Williamson and Phillips, but Biden will not due to a reshuffling of the primary schedule. 

After many years of Iowa and New Hampshire being the first states to vote in both parties’ nominating processes, Biden called on the Democratic National Committee (DNC) to shake up the order to have South Carolina first. He said the move would allow more voters of color to have a greater influence in selecting the nominee than the overwhelmingly white electorates of Iowa and New Hampshire. 

The DNC followed Biden’s recommendations to make South Carolina first and New Hampshire second along with Nevada, but the Granite State, which has a law requiring its primary to be the first, refused to comply with the new schedule. 

Biden decided as a result to not file for the New Hampshire primary in compliance with the DNC’s rules, and, critically, the DNC has decided that no delegates will be awarded for the state — meaning it will not directly affect the math of winning the nomination. 

But supporters of Biden have launched an intensive write-in campaign to help the incumbent win the state anyway, even as he has not campaigned at all there. 

“The fate of our democracy itself hangs in the balance in the 2024 election,” according to the website for the write-in effort. “That starts with supporting Joe Biden in New Hampshire’s 2024 First in the Nation Primary on January 23.” 

Meanwhile, Phillips and Williamson have centered their long-shot efforts against Biden in New Hampshire, regularly visiting the state for months. 

Both challengers are hoping that an impressive showing to deny Biden victory in the state, or at least limit his margin of victory, will fuel their efforts further. 

Phillips pointed to an American Research Group poll showing him at 32 percent in New Hampshire, saying Sunday in a post on X, formerly Twitter, that he is "rising every week.” But several polls have shown him down from the Biden write-in effort by at least 45 points, and he is averaging just above 10 percent in RealClearPolitics’s polling average. 

Williamson has mostly polled in the single digits. The Hill has reached out to Phillips's and Williamson’s campaigns for comment.

Phillips told CNN’s Jake Tapper in an interview Monday that he expects Biden will “show his weakness” in New Hampshire and that his own campaign is performing better than polls suggest. He said if he can get into the 20s Tuesday, he will consider it a “great achievement.”

“Just 10 weeks ago, Jake, no one knew my name here. I was at zero percent, and I’ll tell you, if we’re at 20-some percent, that would be fabulous,” Phillips said. “But what’s really important here is demonstrating frankly that Joe Biden, a good man, is not electable.”

Democratic strategists were hesitant to make a prediction for Tuesday’s race given the unusual nature of the primary. 

“I think it's impossible to come up with a number ... because this is just so out of the ordinary,” said Demers, the New Hampshire Democratic strategist. 

He noted that New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan is not expecting a large turnout in the Democratic primary, with the GOP primary expected to surpass it by more than 230,000 voters. He also said getting voters to write in a candidate instead of just selecting a name already on the ballot is difficult. 

“I really wouldn't even want to venture a guess because there's just really nothing to gauge it against,” Demers said. 

Democratic strategist Joe Trippi said he doesn’t think “anybody has a clue” of what results they should expect. But he said he does not expect a major interpretation of the state of Biden’s reelection bid based on the results. 

Even if Phillips does take a decent amount of the vote, Trippi said the Minnesota representative will face much more difficulty when the South Carolina primary arrives Feb. 3. 

“[He will] find out what it’s like to actually be in a primary, to actually have to contest one,” Trippi said, arguing that challenging an incumbent president was a “fool’s errand from the beginning.” 

During the modern era of primaries, an incumbent has never been defeated by a primary challenger for their party’s renomination. One of the most successful efforts by a primary challenger came in 1968 when then-Sen. Eugene McCarthy (D-Minn.) nearly defeated incumbent President Lyndon Johnson in the New Hampshire primary. 

Johnson, who also did not formally enter the primary and was only a write-in candidate, decided soon after to not seek another term in office. McCarthy ultimately lost the nomination. 

The primary comes as polls have shown Biden’s overall approval rating remains underwater and many do not want him to run for another term. But Democrats supportive of Biden said New Hampshire, given the specifics of this year’s primary, should not be taken as a measure of the backlash toward him. 

Democratic strategist Daniel Fee said he does not think the result, regardless of the outcome, will matter, especially with Biden not campaigning in the state and not on the ballot. 

“There’s not going to be some sort of massive protest vote that matters when the president and vice president didn’t campaign,” he said. 

Fee said Biden’s opponents may try to set a standard for the contest that allows them to declare victory no matter the final results, but their meaning is limited. 

Democratic strategist Antjuan Seawright said if Biden underperforms in New Hampshire, he will be boosted by the “most dedicated voting bloc in the country” of Black voters backing him in South Carolina. 

Biden was struggling in the polls heading into South Carolina in the 2020 election after placing fourth in Iowa and fifth in New Hampshire. But he turned his candidacy around in the Palmetto State, clinching a big victory before going on to win the nomination. 

Seawright said the results of New Hampshire will be a subject of insider political chatter, but South Carolina, Nevada and Michigan will “give you a real snapshot” of where Democratic primary voters stand. 

But he said success in New Hampshire could help signal the need for Democrats to unite around Biden to prepare to oppose former President Trump, the likely Republican nominee, in November. 

“I think in this case, we will send a message about the urgent importance of consolidating as a party and putting aside whatever disagreements we may have because the disagreements we may have amongst each other in no way in hell compare to the different disagreements we have with those who are on the other side of the aisle,” he said.