I’m not going to vote for Donald Trump or Joe Biden – but what I see happening in 2024 makes me afraid, John Bolton says
FORMER US National Security Advisor John Bolton fears Donald Trump could defeat Joe Biden in November’s presidential election but said he would not back either candidate.
America is on course for its first presidential election rematch since the 1950s as Biden is seeking a second term in office and Trump is the clear favorite to be the Republican Party’s nomination.
Trump stormed to victory in the first Republican caucus of the year in Iowa on January 15.
The brash tycoon comprehensively defeated Ron DeSantis, the Governor of Florida, and Nikki Haley, who served in the Trump Administration as the US ambassador to the United Nations between 2017 and 2018.
He finished more than 30,000 votes ahead of DeSantis and won over 50% of the popular vote in the caucus.
Trump is on track to win today’s New Hampshire primary contest if the polls are to be believed.
Trump comes into New Hampshire having won the endorsement of Vivek Ramaswamy, who pressed pause on his presidential ambitions following a fourth-place finish in Iowa.
The race for the GOP nomination is down to two candidates as DeSantis suspended his campaign – just days before the New Hampshire primary.
DeSantis is among the top Republicans that have backed Trump for the nomination.
Trump’s significant lead in the national GOP nomination polls comes as the ex-commander-in-chief is embroiled in several legal battles.
Trump has been indicted four times and faces 91 charges.
In March last year, the ex-president was indicted in New York over alleged hush money payments to the adult film star Stormy Daniels.
Trump is also accused of mishandling a trove of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago, Florida home.
Prosecutors in Washington DC have indicted Trump for trying to overturn the 2020 election.
In August 2023, Trump made history when he was the first president to have his mugshot taken after surrendering to the authorities in Georgia.
He was indicted on conspiracy and racketeering charges. Trump vehemently denies all charges.
But despite the indictments and court dashes, Trump has a commanding lead in the race for the GOP nomination.
STATE OF THE RACE
Bolton, who has served under four Republican presidents, has given his verdict on the state of the race for the GOP nomination.
“People have won New Hampshire and still been defeated for the nomination. This is a very difficult course, however, and a lot of ifs have to come together, but it’s possible and if everything lines up, it could be a competitive race,” he told The U.S. Sun.
“But, if you have to bet one dollar, you would bet it on Trump.”
Should Trump win the nomination, it seems incredibly likely he will face Joe Biden in the race for the White House.
Biden has already declared his bid for a second term and the candidates who have thrown their names in the ring for the Democratic nomination will not pose a significant challenge.
This is despite mounting concerns over his competency for office and speculation that the likes of California Governor Gavin Newsom could be eying up a run for the Oval Office.
If it is Biden v Trump in November, it will be the first rematch since Dwight Eisenhower and Adlai Stevenson’s battle in 1956.
But, polling suggests Americans do not want a Biden-Trump rematch.
Bolton, who has served under four former Republican presidents, said he will not back either Biden or Trump.
“I’m afraid Trump could win. I’m not going to vote for Trump or Biden if those are the nominees. I didn’t in 2020 and I won’t this time either,” he said.
“There’s a line of analysis that says in 2016 and 2020 and quite likely in 2024, there’s a group of voters who don’t like either candidate.
“And, 2024 is the biggest gathering of those people of all three elections.”
Bolton said voters didn’t like Hillary Clinton more in 2016, which paved the way for Trump’s historic victory.
In 2020, Biden profited against Trump, but the state of the race in 2024 is more uncertain, according to Bolton.
‘UNCHARTERED TERRITORY’
“We’re in very unchartered territory in predicting how voters will vote in the key electoral swing states since we don’t have a nationwide popular election,” he said.
“I don’t think anyone can tell you who’s going to win in November,” he added.
“You have two very unpopular people running from the two major parties. Polls have shown between 65 and 70 percent of the people say they don’t want a Trump-Biden rematch and that’s exactly what they’re going to get.
“That’s a measure of a very volatile electorate where a Trump victory is possible.”
Biden’s approval rating was just 39% in the December before the election, per Gallup.
This was even lower than Trump, who polled 45% in December 2019, per the survey.
Biden’s popularity is around 38.8%, per the latest polls.
Re-election is far from a slam dunk for the Biden team, with opinion polls showing the president and Trump in a tight tussle, especially in the battleground states.
Some polls have even put Trump ahead in the swing states.
Biden has come under fire regarding his record in office during his term.
Biden has been attacked politically by Republicans on a range of issues, from the disastrous withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan to how inflation has squeezed Americans’ wallets.
Bolton has repeatedly urged Biden to show more force toward Iran.
Biden has also been criticized by some progressive voters, particularly in Michigan, for his support of Israel following the Hamas terror attacks.
Polls in recent months suggest the coalition of voters that saw him sweep to power in 2020 could be splintering.
A survey revealed 63% of black voters support Biden – down from 87% in 2020, per a USA Today-Suffolk University poll.
The poll also suggests Biden’s now trailing Trump among Hispanic voters – a category he won two to one in 2020.
David Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center, said: “A young voter or a person of color voting ‘third party’ is a vote away from President Biden, and a vote away from President Biden is a vote for Donald Trump.”