Could Democrats’ California Senate Fight Cost Them the House?

One of the little secrets of Washington is that the gulf in perceptions and understanding between the two chambers of Congress is sometimes as wide and deep as the differences between the two parties. As anyone who has worked on Capitol Hill can tell you, the House and the Senate (where I once worked) are two separate and highly self-focused institutions with very different rules and priorities. This House-Senate gap extends to the campaign trail, where candidates for both chambers compete for media attention, volunteer resources, and campaign funding.

The phenomenon is especially evident this year in California, where House Democrats are frantically trying to flip five to seven Republican-held seats in hopes of changing control of the House as a whole. There’s also a high-profile Senate race under way in the Golden State, but that seat (the late Dianne Feinstein’s, now held by appointed caretaker Laphonza Butler) will almost certainly remain in Democratic hands; the Democratic Party has a big advantage in the state, where the last GOP Senate victory was in 1988.

Under California’s election system, the top-two finishers in the March 5 nonpartisan Senate primary will compete in the general election. Unfortunately for House Democrats, that has produced an intraparty Senate battle that’s soaking up money and attention. The situation could extend all the way until November, with House candidates potentially becoming collateral damage. As Politico reports, this is generating quiet but intense Democratic hopes that a Republican candidate can interrupt the internecine battle before losing in the general election:

California’s Rep. Adam Schiff’s $35 million war chest for the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s seat is more than twice as large as any other Senate candidate in the nation.

The state plays no role in which party will lead the Senate next year. And yet, some Democratic House campaigns in California have already seen the Senate race start to siphon money and attention away from swing-seats.

Money like that could help flip multiple House seats and power Democrats’ attempt to regain control of Congress. California alone has seven GOP House incumbents that Democrats have targeted. The campaign accounts of Schiff and his closest Democratic opponent, fellow Rep. Katie Porter, could transform those contests.

There is a Republican Senate candidate, former Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres baseball star Steve Garvey, with enough name ID and fundraising oomph (potentially) to edge into second place on March 5 and effectively shut down the race for the seat:

The agony of having two of the best fundraisers in the House battle each other has left some in the party hoping that a Republican nabs the second spot in the top-two primary on March 5. Polling has shown Schiff in a commanding lead with Porter and Republican Steve Garvey battling for second. Another prominent House Democrat, Rep. Barbara Lee, trails behind in fourth place. A second-place Garvey win would effectively end the fight for the seat in the deep-blue state instead of letting it drag out until November.

The Democratic Senate candidates and their supporters, of course, don’t see it that way. California progressives by and large dislike front-runner Adam Schiff, but they are divided between Katie Porter and Barbara Lee. While most of them would inevitably vote for Schiff against a Republican in a general election, they’d prefer to unite behind the strongest left-bent Schiff rival and take him down in November if they cannot beat him in March.

For his part, Garvey has managed to consolidate Republican support behind his candidacy and has been registering support in the double digits in the five public polls released since he formally entered the race in October. Obviously, the biggest threat to his prospects of making the top two in March is a corresponding consolidation of progressive votes behind Porter and Lee. While the former has far and away more money and stronger support in the polls, the latter is a lefty legend dating back to her sole vote against authorization of the war in Afghanistan. She also offers the only hope that a Black woman might succeed Butler and Kamala Harris as a California senator.

But to survive the abattoir of the top-two primary, Garvey himself needs to remain a credible candidate. He did himself no favors in a January 22 nonpartisan debate, in which he became a punching bag for his Democratic rivals, as the Los Angeles Times reported:

Reps. Adam B. Schiff of Burbank, Katie Porter of Irvine and Barbara Lee of Oakland delighted in ripping into former baseball star Steve Garvey, a Republican newcomer to politics and supporter of former President Trump, who appeared at times bemused and at times unprepared for the Democratic pile-on.

“Once a Dodger, always a Dodger,” Porter said, a shot at Garvey after he refused to say whether he’d vote for Trump this fall.

Politico was more brutal about Garvey’s performance:

Garvey has to pray that nobody watched the debate — even some Republicans willing to throw away their vote on a sure loser in November. If the bar for GOP support is on the floor, Garvey didn’t do enough to clear it. He managed not to meet expectations that were, well, that low.

No matter whom they happen to prefer in the Senate race, House-focused California Democrats will be hoping Porter and Lee maintain a close competition leading up to March 5 and limit Democratic options in November to a single candidate. Then perhaps the sweet filthy lucre of donor money could rain down on those good folks down ballot. But their unwilling ally Steve Garvey needs to cooperate with a minimally competent campaign, and the jury’s out as to whether he can pull that off.