2024 Mexico Open Betting Preview: Drive and Putt for Dough

The tumultuous state of the PGA Tour has created an interesting narrative when it comes to the “regular” events on the schedule. Very few of the elite field at Riviera will take the cruise route from Pacific Palisades down to Puerta Vallarta for the Mexico Open at Vidanta. As a result, the 132-man field will only have three of the top 40 in the OWGR. Three straight weeks of popular venues and/or signature purses is going to take a toll.

I believe this will make the Mexico Open more competitive in the coming years. Middle-tier players who haven’t played since mid-January are now incentivized to play in these regular events. Gaining access to the smaller fields and bigger purses will only happen through great play at events like Vidanta. Whether it is an intended consequence or not, the PGA Tour has inspired the bottom of the betting board to play better!

The Tour took hold of the Mexico Open three years ago and to date we haven’t seen very many stars go south of the border. The par-71 course at Vidanta Vallarta—designed by Greg Norman—stretches nearly 7,500 yards. Check out their unique scorecard:

• Four par-5s with an average length of 593 yards.
• Five par-3s with an average length of 195 yards.
• Nine par-4s with an average length of 457 yards.

Augusta National Golf Club is one of the few courses with an average par-4 length over Vidanta Vallarta. Length is an incredible advantage and one the previous two groups of top-10 finishers have taken advantage of, averaging over three strokes gained against the field off the tee. Just consider the two winners: Jon Rahm and Tony Finau, two great modern drivers of the golf ball. Those two winners gained an average of five-plus strokes with the driver.

The top 65 and ties play the weekend and thankfully, the weather is resort-esque. No rain is in the forecast and temperatures will reach the mid-80s each day. The wind always seems to whip up off the water in the afternoon alongside the Mexican coastline. I mentioned the two top 10s earlier, half of those leaderboards were the exact players in both years. That level of consistency by certain competitors gives us a beautiful blueprint of what it takes to win.

Length is priority No. 1, followed by long-iron approaches. Vidanta Vallarta throws a Tour-leading 40% of the approach shots from 200 yards or more. Another reason why ball speed is so important. Over 60% of the approaches are sent in from over 175 yards. Those 24 players who finished inside the last two top 10s gained and average of four strokes on the field with their iron game and only four of the 24 gave back approach strokes.

Norman’s design is tricky on the greens. Players make less than the Tour average for all putts greater than five feet in length. Strokes-gained putting is therefore a crucial area where those same top 10s distanced themselves from the entire field. The 7,000-square-foot surfaces are covered in sticky seaside paspalum, a grass that is used on most island and coastal courses. Certain players love it, while others struggle. It is slower than the average PGA Tour green speed and tends to help those who have putting “issues.”

Contenders will need 24 birdies or more to win and that’s just one more reason why putting plays a such significant role. There’s $8.1 million in the purse and valuable FedEx Cup points to the contenders. If you want to play in the signature events, you better show up and grind it out in these regular tournaments. The Mexico Open will award $1.46 million for first, but even more important it will reward the winner with improved signature status.

Win: Maverick McNealy

I walked 18 holes with Maverick McNealy out in Scottsdale. I wanted to see if he could substantially improve his iron game. He’s an elite putter and much longer off the tee than people give him credit for. McNealy gained three strokes on approach and finished sixth. Mav already scores on par-5s and with his short game can save par (and score) from close range. He’s played very well on driver-heavy courses before and has the talent to win with this strength of field. Take Maverick McNealy to win the Mexico Open (+4500 SI Sportsbook).

Last week's result: Lost. Ludvig Aberg finished T19 at the Genesis, respectable but not the "W" we wanted.
Year-to-date: 0–7, -7.00 units

Place: Nicolai Hojgaard

I don’t believe Nicolai Hojgaard can win but he will come close. Hojgaard’s driving is prolific and his putting is top 20 in the field. He’s a top-10 par-4 guy and top-20 tee-to-green. He matches the blueprint for Vidanta Vallarta except for one detail: Nicolai’s wedges are much better than his long-iron game. His all-around skill set is close this week, but in the end those 200+ yard approaches will add up and only allow him to contend. Take Nicolai Hojgaard to finish Top 10 (+200 SI Sportsbook).

Last week's result: Lost. Scottie Scheffler was bet for a top 5 but finished T10 behind another very rough week on the greens.
Year-to-date: 2–5, -2.32 units

Showdown: Michael Kim over Austin Eckroat

Michael Kim and Austin Eckroat are very evenly matched this week. Both are above-average drivers and putters. Kim is much better on approach, manufacturing more realistic birdie chances with his iron game and thus scoring better. Second in the field for birdie-or-better percentage, over 72 holes I like Kim to finish ahead of Eckroat in a tournament matchup. Take Michael Kim over Austin Eckroat head-to-head (-110 DraftKings).

Last week's result: Lost. Collin Morikawa was nipped by Max Homa by one shot at Riviera.
Year-to-date: 3–3, -0.30 units

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Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook

Tony Finau +700

Nicolai Hojgaard +1400

Emiliano Grillo +2200

Keith Mitchell +2200

Stephan Jaeger +2200

Taylor Pendrith +2500

Thomas Detry +2500

Thorbjorn Olesen +2800

Patrick Rodgers +3000

Davis Thompson +3300

Erik van Rooyen +3300

Brandon Wu +3500

Ryan Fox +3500

Jake Knapp +4000

Doug Ghim +4500

Mackenzie Hughes +4500

Mark Hubbard +4500

Maverick McNealy +4500

Ryo Hisatsune +4500

Aaron Rai +5000

Sam Stevens +5000