Will the Golden Globe musical/comedy actress winner get last laugh at Oscars for second year in a row?

I recently wrote about the Oscar prospects of Paul Giamatti in “The Holdovers.” Should he end up holding the Academy Award for Best Actor next month, he’ll become the first Golden Globe Musical or Comedy Actor winner to do so in 12 years, since Jean Dujardin for 2011’s Best Picture “The Artist.”

On the flip side, an Emma Stone victory for “Poor Things” would mark back-to-back Best Actress Oscars for the Golden Globe Musical or Comedy recipient. Just last year, Michelle Yeoh in 2022’s Best Picture “Everything Everywhere All at Once” followed that exact same formula. Yeoh was able to overcome a fierce challenge from Cate Blanchett in “Tar,” who had been named Best Drama Actress at the Globes.

Interestingly enough, the Musical or Comedy Globe for acting has had produced much better Oscar results for women than men. In fact, some of the most iconic Best Actress winners of the 20th century claimed the Musical or Comedy Globe first. Julie Andrews in 1964’s “Mary Poppins.” Barbra Streisand in 1968’s “Funny Girl.” And Liza Minnelli in 1972’s “Cabaret.”

SEE Oscar nominations: How did your favorite films fare?

On other occasions, the Globe Comedy Actress Award put some funny girls on track to the Oscar in what were often rather competitive years. Glenda Jackson in 1973’s “A Touch of Class.” Diane Keaton in 1977’s Best Picture “Annie Hall.” Cher in 1987’s “Moonstruck.” Jessica Tandy in 1989’s Best Picture “Driving Miss Daisy.” Helen Hunt in 1997’s “As Good as It Gets.” And Gwyneth Paltrow in 1998’s Best Picture “Shakespeare in Love.”

As we’ve transitioned into the 21st century, the Golden Globe Best Musical or Comedy Actress prize has continued to jumpstart the Oscar campaigns of a number of successful Best Actress candidates. It has generally been most effective when the SAG Award followed. Take Reese Witherspoon in 2005’s “Walk the Line.” Jennifer Lawrence in 2012’s “Silver Linings Playbook.” Emma Stone in 2016’s Best Picture “La La Land.” And as mentioned earlier, Yeoh in “Everything Everywhere.” All four used the Comedy Globe + SAG combo to ultimately achieve Oscar glory.

And in a couple of instances, it was the Comedy Globe + BAFTA that led to some of the most notable Best Actress Oscar upsets of the past 20 years. I’m referring to Marion Cotillard in 2007’s “La Vie en Rose,” who took the trophy away from Julie Christie in “Away from Her.” (Christie had been awarded both the Golden Globe for Drama Actress and the SAG Award before going down at the Oscars.) The other example is Olivia Colman in 2018’s “The Favourite.” Perennial also-ran Glenn Close in “The Wife” was finally seen as the Oscar favorite after triumphing as Best Drama Actress at the Globes and then Best Actress at SAG. It was probably close in the final voting — but the academy said “I do” to Colman instead of Close.

SEE 2024 Oscar nominations: Full list of contenders in all 23 categories

Returning to the Best Actress race at hand, Stone enjoys a solid lead in Gold Derby’s official Oscar odds for playing Bella Baxter, a woman with the mind of a child. However, recent history suggests that she’ll need to nab either the BAFTA or the SAG to stay in the game. If she claims both, it’s probably game over for the remaining contestants. And should Stone fail at the two, we’re likely looking at a first-time Oscar winner for Best Actress.

From the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy Actress to the Oscar. Stone is still on a rocky road — time will tell if she gets the last laugh.

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