The best bets for when and how LeBron James will score his 40,000th career point
It feels like it was just yesterday when LeBron James ignored Thomas Bryant’s call for a pass in the post to rise up for a jump shot that would make him the NBA’s all-time leading scorer.
In reality, that game against the Oklahoma City Thunder was a whole year ago — February 2023 — and that moment was far from the last time we’d see James conquer a scoring milestone. The 39-year-old is now 132 points away from becoming the first player in NBA history to reach 40,000 career regular-season points. No need to do the math in your head, it’s happening soon.
As is the case with most things in sports, you can bet on the exact game James will hit the 40,000-point mark and how he’ll do it. The odds at BetMGM favor James to reach the milestone against the Denver Nuggets on March 2 (+200). The next most likely games are March 4 against the Thunder (+225), Feb. 29 against the Washington Wizards (+375) and March 6 against the Sacramento Kings (+475). Every other game has odds of 10-1 or longer.
Los Angeles Lakers upcoming schedule
- Thu, Feb. 22 – at Warriors
- Fri, Feb. 23 – vs Spurs
- Sun, Feb. 25 – at Suns
- Wed, Feb. 28 – at Clippers
- Thu, Feb. 29 – vs Wizards
- Sat, March 2 – vs Nuggets
- Mon March 4 – vs Thunder
- Wed, March 6 – vs Kings
As much as I want to say the odds are wrong, I can’t. I think the game against Denver makes the most sense. James averages 24.8 points per game this season, a rate that would have him eight points away from 40,000 after five games. So, if he maintained his average through the Lakers’ first five games out of the All-Star break, he would have a chance to hit the mark early in the sixth game — which comes against the Nuggets.
But even if James misses a game, which I think is likely, he’ll still have a chance to do it against Denver, because I don’t believe he’ll finish a game mere points away the milestone without going for it. Remember, he needed 36 points and went for 38 in the game he passed Kareem Abdul-Jabbar last year. I think he’ll similarly push himself to get 40,000 in his fifth game out the break, and I believe Denver will end up being that game.
The Lakers have two back-to-backs prior to playing the Nuggets. Because James missed the second game of their most recent back-to-back — and he’s nursing an ankle injury — I can see him resting at least one of those two games. Especially with them being winnable games against the San Antonio Spurs and Washington Wizards.
Missing the Wizards game would give James two days off before the Lakers play the Nuggets — at home on a Saturday night, nationally televised on ABC. A rematch of last year’s Western Conference Finals. It would be the perfect stage for him to chase a milestone no other player has reached.
How will LeBron James score his 40,000 career point? (BetMGM)
- Layup +250
- 3-point FG +300
- Other +325
- Free throw +500
- Dunk +550
As for how James will do it, odds favor a layup at +250, but I’ll go with +300 on a 3-pointer. His signature move in the latter stages of his career has been the look-down three. He’ll break that bad boy when the time is right.