Oscars Best Actor odds: Cillian Murphy (‘Oppenheimer’) back in the lead after crucial BAFTA and SAG victories

Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”) led the Oscar odds for Best Actor for much of the season based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users, but after Oscar nominations were officially announced Paul Giamatti (“The Holdovers”) swung into first place, where he was as recently as February 19. But Murphy has taken the lead again, and there may be no stopping him on his way to Oscar.

The televised awards season started with the Golden Globes. There, Murphy won Best Film Drama Actor while Giamatti claimed Best Film Comedy/Musical Actor. Murphy’s win was crucial as at the time he was thought to be in close competition with Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”). But then a funny thing happened at the Critics Choice Awards. What looked like a rematch between Murphy and Cooper turned out to be another coronation for Giamatti instead. So after Oscar nominations were announced on January 23 Giamatti took the lead.

The industry peer group awards spoke up next, though, and the race took another turn. BAFTA went to Murphy, and so did SAG, which were especially important since those voting bodies overlap with the motion picture academy that hands out the Oscars. Unsurprisingly, those wins vaulted Murphy back up to front-runner status in Gold Derby’s Oscar odds.

But how safe is his lead as we enter the home stretch? Well, he’s not indomitable. He is predicted to win by 16 of the Expert journalists we’ve surveyed from major media outlets, but as of this writing Giamatti still has eight Experts on his side. Similarly, Murphy is backed by eight Gold Derby Editors over four who say Giamatti. Out of our Top 24 Users, 17 say Murphy while six say Giamatti. And among our All-Star Top 24, 15 forecast Murphy with eight forecasting Giamatti. So Giamatti still might want to prepare a speech, but the momentum has undoubtedly shifted towards Murphy.

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