Biden Would Go Further Left

If you think President Joe Biden is far left now, imagine if he’s reelected.

On one hand, Biden would no longer need the general public’s support. On the other, if he’s reelected, it will only be with the Left’s overwhelming support, thus making him utterly beholden to it. Finally, as his final term progresses, the general public’s support will only fall, thus making him all the more dependent on the Left to govern.

The general public is already deeply dissatisfied with Biden’s presidency. According to RealClearPolitics’ March 1 averaging of national polling, Biden’s overall job approval is just 41 percent. On specific issues, it is just 39.6 percent on the economy, 39 percent on crime, 37 percent on foreign policy, 37 percent on inflation, 34.5 percent on the Israel–Hamas conflict, and 31.2 percent on immigration.

Even in a rematch against the man he beat four years ago, Biden only polls at 45.1 percent in a two-way race against Trump (at 47.1 percent), and just 38 percent (versus Trump’s 41 percent) in a five-way race. By either measure, these are dramatic drops from the 51.3 percent of the popular vote he won in 2020.

Overwhelmingly, Biden’s loss of support has come because he is too far to the left. To the average American, Biden has been fiscally left (too much spending, too high deficits, and too much debt), his foreign policy has been too accommodating to America’s enemies (Russia, Iran, China, and Venezuela), his environmental agenda nothing short of radical in its war on fossil fuels and insistence on expensive and unreliable green energy, while his open border policy has put illegal immigration first and America last.

Well, if you think he has been far left in his first term, it will get worse if Biden wins a second. A lot worse.

For his entire first four years in office, Biden has been looking ahead to his next four years. To win another term, he needs as much broad public support as possible. So, as far left as he is now, we can only assume that this has been Biden at his most balanced. How much Biden needed moderates is shown in 2020 exit polling: Liberals made up just 24 percent of voters, and Biden won 89 percent; moderates made up 38 percent of voters, and Biden won 64 percent.

Based on Biden’s fall in support, in 2024 he will see his moderate support drop and his liberal support increase. Furthermore, he will have run his last race. What moderate support he managed to retain he will never need again. But he will need the Left to govern.

The dynamic of diminishing overall support for presidents in their second term and Biden’s increasing dependency on the Left to govern will only intensify Biden’s leftward lurch.

Gallup terms presidents’ decline in support the “second-term curse.” Looking back to Harry Truman, Gallup polling found that only Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton did not lose support in their second terms. To this general trend, Biden will add his own.

If Biden wins reelection, he will certainly have seen the Left play an even larger role in that victory than it did in 2020. He will owe it. As his second term goes on, we can expect Biden’s additional attrition in support to come from the center and the Right. That leaves him only the Left.

So, Biden will start a second term more beholden to, and dependent on, the Left; and as it goes, he will become even more beholden to, and dependent on, the Left for his support. This cycle of debt and dependency with the Left will become self-reinforcing: The more left he goes, the more support he will lose from the center and the Right.

If Biden wins a second term, he will be freed from moderates and fettered to the Left. His proclivity to go left — as demonstrated by his first four years in office and loss of support from the general public — will be melded to his necessity to retain some base of support for his administration: All that will remain will be the Left.

To this ideological slant, Biden will undoubtedly add another within the branches of government. If Biden is reelected, there is a good chance he will face a Republican Congress. If he does not in 2025, the odds are even higher he would in 2027, after his second midterm. Considering the Biden administration’s push to expand the powers of the executive branch, it can be expected that it would take these to the breaking point and beyond in a second term.

For Americans to see where Biden would go, just look at where he has already been. Then look much, much further left.

J.T. Young was a professional staffer in the House and Senate from 1987–2000, served in the Department of Treasury and Office of Management and Budget from 2001–2004, and was director of government relations for a Fortune 20 company from 2004–2023.

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