UFC Vegas 87 predictions
Take a close look at Saturday’s seemingly inconsequential APEX event and you’ll find at least two fights with serious title contender implications.
No, that doesn’t refer to the UFC Vegas 87 headliner between heavyweights Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Shamil Gaziev. It will be fun to watch those two wail on one another for as long as that one lasts, but the highs stakes are elsewhere on the main card with Alex Perez taking on the undefeated Muhammad Mokaev and Umar Nurmagomedov putting his perfect record on the line against UFC newcomer Bekzat Almakhan.
Mokaev has made all the right moves since turning pro in 2020 following a distinguished amateur career, winning his first 11 fights (excluding one no-contest) and getting off to a 5-0 start in the UFC. Should he impress against Perez, a one-time title challenger, the stars could align for him to step into the UFC 301 main event on May 4 and challenge Brazilian flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja in Rio de Janeiro.
The urgency isn’t quite the same for Nurmagomedov, who has to just be happy to compete after fighting just once since the beginning of 2023. Nurmagomedov looks like he could fight for a UFC title yesterday, but instead he’s staying busy by facing the dangerous Almakhan in a matchup from which he has little to gain and plenty to lose.
Five fighters enter Saturday’s card with undefeated records and there’s added pressure on Mokaev and Nurmagomedov to deliver.
What: UFC Vegas 87
Where: UFC APEX in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, March 2. The six-fight preliminary card begins at 1:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a five-fight main card at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in MMA Fighting’s Global Rankings)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (15) vs. Shamil Gaziev
There are more important fights on this card, but if the UFC is looking to end Saturday’s show with a bang, they probably made the right choice. Jairzinho Rozenstruik has proven that he can end fights in seconds, and Shamil Gaziev has made it his mission in life to never go past the midway point of Round 2.
Rozenstruik is the obvious choice to win a standup battle, as we’ve seen him execute against a higher level of competition compared to Gaziev’s opponents. This is heavyweight MMA so anything can happen, but I have Rozenstruik’s hand speed giving him the edge over the more winging shots of Gaziev. Though Gaziev has some nice boxing in close, it’s usually not wise to hang with Rozenstruik in the pocket for too long.
I fully expect Gaziev to push the pace early, probing for a weakness in Rozenstruik’s defenses. I’d be surprised if Gaziev doesn’t at least hint at a takedown to throw Rozenstruik off of his game, and should he commit to wrestling, there’s a path to victory for him there. For the purposes of this pick, though, let’s say Rozenstruik keeps this one on the feet and lands a finishing blow in the second half of Round 1.
Pick: Rozenstruik
Vitor Petrino vs. Tyson Pedro
Speaking of fast finishes, who wants to bet that the top two fights on this card don’t take longer than a combined five minutes? Vitor Petrino and Tyson Pedro are here for a good time, not a long time, as they say.
It’s easy to see why Petrino has yet to taste defeat so far. He does everything with force, whether it’s throwing heavy punches from range or timing his hooks to catch circling opponents. He’s not afraid to grapple either, and if he can wear you down to set up a finish later, all the better.
Pedro is a devastating finisher in his own right. He’s had some consistency issues over the years, but he’s definitely matured as he’s grown up inside the octagon, and his power and athleticism make him a constant threat to shut someone’s lights off. His right hand is absolutely lethal, and a tool that Petrino and his team better have well-scouted.
In the end, Petrino’s ability to mix the martial arts should allow him to dictate the pace of this fight, and that will be key to avoid the upset. Petrino would be wise to frustrate Pedro with clinch work early before letting his hands and feet fly in the latter part of the opening round. Pedro might survive that flurry, but the fight won’t go far into the second round before Petrino finds Pedro’s chin and puts him down.
Pick: Petrino
Muhammad Mokaev (11) vs. Alex Perez (12)
Muhammad Mokaev is getting closer and closer to the finish line. Can he avoid being tripped up by Alex Perez?
If there’s been one knock against Mokaev in his fights, it’s that he heavily emphasizes control over impact. It hasn’t hurt him too much, because when he’s controlling a fight with his wrestling, there isn’t much the other guy can do about it. Yes, there’s been the stray submission attempt here and there, but for the most part Mokaev’s safety-first strategy has kept him out of trouble and firmly in the win column.
Should Perez go for broke early, it could be just the trick to surprise Mokaev and send him to his first loss. On the other hand, it could also spell Perez’s demise as he’s a classic glass cannon. If Perez goes with his usual approach, this almost definitely ends in Round 1, though maybe not in the way he hopes.
There are too many questions about Perez’s durability to trust him here, so Mokaev likely wrestles his way to another win either by decision or late submission.
Pick: Mokaev
Umar Nurmagomedov (10) vs. Bekzat Almakhan
All hail the undefeateds!
I fully expect Javid Basharat to be victorious on the prelims, so with this Umar Nurmagomedov pick, it should a perfect five-for-five night for fighters with perfect records.
Look, I’m more than familiar with Bekzat Almakhan’s work. In fact, he’s been featured prominently in Missed Fists on more than one occasion. He’s been UFC-ready for some time and I’d comfortably favor him against plenty of names on the roster. Nurmagomedov just isn’t one of them.
Pound-for-pound, Nurmagomedov might be the most fundamentally flawless fighter in the UFC right now. When he first joined the promotion, he was frequently described as “Khabib with better striking,” and that’s not far off. The scary thing is — and we saw this with the sharp left hand that knocked Raoni Barcelos out cold in his last fight — even Nurmagomedov doesn’t fully understand how good he actually is (or can be).
Almakhan also brings a well-rounded game to this fight, so there’s a strong chance this isn’t a cakewalk for Nurmagomedov. If anything, this could evoke memories of Arman Tsarukyan’s debut against Islam Makhachev, in which the newcomer lost a clear decision but presented a firm challenge to the more well-known fighters. Like Tsarukyan, I see Almakhan moving on to big things regardless of Saturday’s outcome.
That outcome will be a Nurmagomedov victory and another reminder that he could already be the best fighter in the loaded bantamweight division.
Pick: Nurmagomedov
Matt Schnell vs. Steve Erceg
First off, can we mention how miraculous it will be if Matt Schnell and Alex Perez actually manage to compete on the same card? Between the two of them, they’ve seen countless fights fall through, including multiple bookings against each other, and the fact that we might see them both step into the octagon on the same night is kind of mind-blowing.
Steve Erceg is the definition of unassuming. He’s not some jacked uber-athlete, he’s not likely to rush across the cage for a 30-second knockout, and he’s not throwing up flashy submissions off of his back. What he excels at is controlled pressure, taking ground inch-by-inch until his target is forced to engage on his terms. He also exudes calm and stays composed even in the hairiest situations.
Those are all attributes he’ll need to overcome Schnell, who has seen it all in his 12-year career. “Danger” is always looking to finish, and we could see some exhilarating scrambles if this one hits the mat. I favor Erceg in the grappling, if only slightly and only because I think the action will tilt in favor of the younger fighter as the fight progresses.
Erceg could eventually run into a flyweight whose talent he can’t overcome with his skill and guile, but his run of good fortune should continue against Schnell. The Australian wins on points.
Pick: Erceg
Preliminaries
Eryk Anders def. Jamie Pickett
Vinicius Oliveira def. Bernardo Sopai
Javid Basharat def. Aiemann Zahabi
Christian Leroy Duncan def. Claudio Ribeiro