Royals Roster prediction take two: missing in action

A week of Spring Training games have been played and some things that haven’t happened may matter more than some things that have

It’s been a whole week of Spring Training. By the time you’re reading this, it’s March and Opening Day happens later this month. I can almost smell the fresh cut grass and hear the pop of leather and the infielders whip the ball around following another strikeout. It’s time to take another stab at what the Opening Day roster might look like!

If you want to check out the first prediction, it can be found here. That said, I will remark upon the changes between the two as I outline the roster this time.

Pitchers

Starting Pitchers

RHP Seth Lugo

LHP Cole Ragans

RHP Michael Wacha

RHP Brady Singer

LHP Daniel Lynch IV

So this is almost the same as before, though I did move Lugo above Ragans because I think this is the order of the rotation. Bolded is our new number five starter. Before Spring Training started I assumed it was Jordan Lyles’ spot to lose and that he’d pitch well enough to hang on to it, even if he didn’t keep it the whole season. However, since then, he didn’t appear in single game until Lynch had pitched twice, and reasonably well both times.

There has been no word as to why Lyles took so long to make his spring debut, but the most likely scenario would appear to be injury. It will be interesting to see if he still has enough time to build up the stamina necessary to open the year in the rotation or if whatever injury he may have suffered that kept him out for so long lingers at all.

Bullpen

LHP Will Smith

RHP James McArthur

RHP John Schreiber

RHP Nick Anderson

RHP Chris Stratton

RHP John McMillon

LHP Josh Taylor

RHP Matt Sauer

This is the order both of how late in the game I expect them to pitch, with Smith as the presumed closer, as well as how safe I think their roster spot is.

The Royals acquired Schreiber after I made the first prediction and so he takes the place of Jake Brentz, who has pitched very poorly so far this spring. Brentz has walked a team-leading six batters in only 1.1 innings. He’d have to really pitch lights out from now on in order to grab an Opening Day roster spot and that just doesn’t seem likely. He has options left, so they won’t lose him if they demote him.

Matt Sauer’s bullpen spot seems less assured than ever due to a weak performance which has only seen him allow a single unearned run, but he’s given up two walks and four hits in only three innings pitched. The Royals would risk losing him if he doesn’t make the Opening Day roster, but if he isn’t contributing they’ve got a lot of guys who could use that spot better and you don’t spend the fifth most in the sport on free agents to not put your best 26 out there. Carlos Hernández wasn’t in my original prediction and he remains on the outs because he’s dealing with some shoulder troubles that preclude him from even attempting a roster push.

Two guys who have put their names into consideration after being complete afterthoughts before are Walter Pennington - who has struck out all six batters he’s faced - and Sam Long who has struck out five in three innings pitched. Anthony Veneziano has also pitched well, but he might benefit more from staying in AAA where he can continue to pitch as a starter and prepare to be the first man up in case of injury or ineffectiveness. Don’t count out Will Klein or Steven Cruz. The Opening Day ship has probably sailed for Angel Zerpa.

Batters

Starting lineup

3B Maikel Garcia

SS Bobby Witt Jr.

1B Vinnie Pasquantino

C Salvador Perez

LF MJ Melendez

DH Nelson Velázquez

2B Michael Massey

RF Hunter Renfroe

CF Kyle Isbel

None of the players in the Opening Day lineup are different, though I did swap the order of Renfroe and Velázquez as well as the positions of Melendez and Velázquez. I still think Nelson is the better defender, but my gut tells me the Royals will want to pretend MJ is better because he came up in their system.

As indicated by my terrible Where’s Waldo photoshop image, Renfroe hasn’t been seen in a game, yet, due to injury. He was supposed to return to action Wednesday but still hasn’t gotten on the field. If the injury continues to linger then I would expect his roster spot to fall to either Drew Waters or Nick Pratto, both of whom I am now projecting to AAA if Renfroe is good to go. They’re both hitting well so far this spring, but they aren’t good bench options.

Bench

UT Garrett Hampson

UT Adam Frazier

C Freddy Fermin

OF Dairon Blanco

Freddy Fermin is still your backup catcher, Austin Nola is veteran depth with an option that will see him start the year in Omaha. Nick Loftin gets bumped off the roster by virtue of the guaranteed contract the Royals offered Adam Frazier which means he has to be on the roster along with Garrett Hampson who is in a similar position. Does Frazier seem like an upgrade over Loftin to you? He does not to me, and the spring stats are currently bearing that out, but that’s how it goes.

The other change here is that I have Blanco now in as the 26th man instead of Waters. I originally had Waters because I felt like he was a stronger overall player and perhaps a platoon partner, but Blanco is probably the better bench player and the splits on the other outfield options don’t, upon further review, lend themselves to a platoon with him. Waters is more likely to be a part of the team’s future (by some small margin) than Blanco so it probably makes more sense to ensure he’s getting everyday at-bats in the minors unless someone gets hurt or plays their way out of the starting lineup.

Tyler Cropley, CJ Alexander, Ryan Fitzgerald, and Josh Lester have all had good starts to their springs but there just really isn’t any extra space in the position player groups.

The roster still looks significantly improved over last year’s iteration. It’s hard to look at it and feel amazing, unfortunately, but in a division where only the Tigers did any real spending on free agents, the division title still feels like an unlikely but not remote possibility. If only the Royals had been willing to go out and add someone like Cody Bellinger or Matt Chapman instead of Hunter Renfroe and Adam Frazier, I’d think this was a team we could be truly excited about.