Spring Training Story Lines Emerging

Spring training is supposed to be about evaluating the talent your team has, not about assembling your team in March. Welcome to the Borasphere where Matt Chapman, tail between his legs, just agreed to a rather tepid deal to play for the A’s cross town rivals: 3 years, $18M/year, with opt-outs after each season.

So less than a “qualifying offer” for what could wind up being nothing more than a year to rebuild value and try again. Maybe next time Chappie will sign during the off-season like you’re supposed to instead of “waiting out the market” only to find that your agent misread it.

Meanwhile, the A’s may not have the best team in MLB but they do appear to have their team and as such we are seeing what interesting stories are telling themselves as the calendar turns to March. Here are some of my picks:

Nick Allen

It’s now or never for Allen, with Darell Hernaiz breathing down his neck and Max Muncy breathing down Hernaiz’. If Allen breaks camp as the A’s starting shortstop, as is expected, it will represent his last chance to prove he can hit big league pitching enough to stick.

Allen is off to a great start, showing off his Driveline work with a bit more pop to go with what needs to be enhanced plate discipline. If the question is, “Can Allen take a step or leap forward as a hitter?” there are reasons for optimism and reasons for pessimism.

On the plus side, Allen has a consistent history of struggling at each new level on the way to mastering it, and there is a track record of players emerging from Driveline with sustainable improvements.

On the minus side, 2/3 of the pitchers throw with their right hand and going back to the minors Allen has never shown he can hit RHP well. At the big league level he has been especially putrid, with a .190/.234/.242 (37 wRC+) that has so much improvement needed you wonder if it’s realistic to hope for more than “only really bad”.

Conclusion: As a slick fielding shortstop, Allen doesn’t have to hit much in order to provide value. But he has to hit a lot more than his career .549 OPS in order to remain in a starting role. Keep an eye on Allen’s bat, and in particular his ability to work the count and to drive the ball a bit more, as indicators which way it might go.

Kyle Muller

As much as the Sean Murphy trade has been panned and as much as Muller’s horrific performance has contributed, how nice a surprise would it be if somehow, some way, Muller turned around his fortunes to become a solid MLB pitcher?

Muller has arrived not just “in the best shape of his life,” but actually with new (and by that we mean old) mechanics and increased velocity. If nothing else, he appears not to be the exact same pitcher we saw last year, which is a good thing when you’re coming off a season where your ERA was 7.60 and opponents whacked 112 hits off you (16 of them HRs) in just 77 IP.

Conclusion: Undoubtedly the A’s are going to take a long look at Muller in 2024 because he is out of options. So far this spring, in 5 IP he has looked sharp with 1 BB, 7 Ks and stuff that plays. Don’t just look at velocity with Muller, though. Look at movement and command, because he needs to be less hittable ,and better able to locate his pitches, in order to turn the corner.

Miguel Andujar

While whiffing on big trades, the A’s have been excelling at small trades (Cole Irvin, Sam Moll) and quiet acquisitions (Ryan Noda, Brent Rooker). This year’s best hope for a shrewd pickup appears to be Andujar, who won’t provide defensive value but has potentially an “impact bat”.

Don’t get too giddy about any stats the first week of spring training, just note that Andujar is doing exactly what his match.com profile claimed when the A’s swiped right on him. So far he is 5 for 11, albeit absent any walks or extra base hits.

Conclusion: With Oakland trying to lift up a truly pathetic 2023 offensive showing, Andujar will find time in the lineup if he hits. It will be tricky, with Rooker also being a heavy hitter whose best position is DH — and an outfield with either of them along side Esteury Ruiz could be “Bad News Bears” inept. Let’s see if this “super Jordan Diaz” can walk enough and catch the ball enough to stick.

Joe Boyle

Boyle spent his minor league career putting up laughable BB numbers — 191 walks in 237.2 IP — but in his 3 starts for the A’s he looked every bit the part of a legitimate “front of the rotation” SP.

Did Oakland unlock something in Boyle’s mechanics and/or help him to find pitches he could locate? Or was Boyle the classic example of “don’t fall in love in March or September” and the star of “small sample theater”?

This spring the main column everyone is watching is the walk column and so far it is pristine: 5.1 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K. The fastball is clocking triple digits and the off speed stuff plays.

Conclusion: Until we see flurries of wildness, it’s hard not to get excited about the chance that Boyle will be one of those inexplicable baseball stories that confound pundits and betray common sense. Heaven knows this organization could use a break.

Those are 4 of my top “guys to watch” and my analysis of where things stand with them. Feel free to chime in with your thoughts on these 4 along with others you feel deserve a closer eye as we count down 26 days until Opening Night...