Rest easy, 49ers fans: Shanahan and Lynch know how to build a roster, Super Bowl aside
The NFL’s annual yard sale is underway. There will be no shortage of fans interested, too, as if they’re driving the neighborhood looking for open garage doors and used items at good prices.
Yet here’s an annual reminder as media coverage for expendable players goes wall-to-wall as free agency begins — let the buyer beware. The brightest shiniest items should go quick — a Kirk Cousins here, a Danielle Hunter there, even a well-worn Tyron Smith. Teams can enter into agreements with players on other teams today at 9 a.m., but nothing official can happen until Wednesday.
The earlier they agree, the bigger the contract. The better deals will come later, when the lawn is clear and the garage door is about to be shut for the night.
History tells us the 49ers will be on the lookout for one expensive item that fills a need, then fill gaps with the rest. If you’ve been to the NFC Championship Game four times in five seasons, won it twice and have your star players under contract, it says your roster is in good shape whether you’ve won a Super Bowl or not.
The 49ers will be good again and chances are they’ll be in the same place come January of 2025 as they were last season: In the playoffs, with a chance to either appease their fan base with a championship in New Orleans or leave them disappointed and bitter over yet another near-miss.
You can already sense the grumbling on social media when right tackle Colton McKivitz got a relatively modest contract extension (through 2025 worth $7 million and $4.5 million in guarantees). McKivitz was perceived as a weak link all season but wound up being solid enough to make 17 starts and play 1,040 snaps — the most on the team.
McKivitz isn’t going to make any All-Pro teams and he’s not Trent Williams. His pay suggests if some stud right tackle became available either in free agency or the draft, he could change positions (guard) or roles (swing tackle).
Signing McKivitz isn’t a sign of weakness, it’s a sign of a 49ers team that has a clue about how to go about their business. Coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch haven’t been perfect since they arrived seven years ago in rebuilding the franchise after the Jim Harbaugh/Trent Baalke dynamic imploded and begat Jim Tomsula and Chip Kelly.
But here’s what Shanahan and Lynch have done, once you throw out the first year with a pathetic roster and the two seasons that were derailed by catastrophic injury (Jimmy Garoppolo in 2018, Nick Bosa and Garoppolo in 2020): They are 48-19 in the regular season, have advanced to the NFC Championship Game four times, are 8-0 in the wild card and divisional playoff rounds and have played in two Super Bowls.
Preseason rhetoric aside, no team goes into the season convinced its going to win the Super Bowl. It’s a brutal 17-week marathon. Teams play for a chance at a championship, then lay it on the line. A team is built to get to the precipice. Then it’s up to luck, skill and avoiding Patrick Mahomes if you want to win it.
So in the final year of Brock Purdy’s bargain phase before he irreversibly alters the 49ers’ salary cap structure with an extension befitting his new place in the pecking order of NFL quarterbacks, expect them to go about their business as they have the last two years.
They can bring back Brandon Aiyuk on an extension at more than $20 million per year on a contract that will drop his cap number below his scheduled $14 million as a first-round pick on a fifth-year option. Cornerback Deommodore Lenoir and others could be in line for upgrades. Wide receiver Jauan Jennings is a restricted free agent and under team control. Money can be moved and the cap is not really a huge impediment.
The release of Arik Armstead, who reportedly declined a pay cut Sunday after missing 13 regular season games due to injury over the last two seasons, gives the 49ers more financial flexibility.
No sense in gambling on someone else’s players when you know what you’ve got in your own.
The 49ers had a first-day surprise in each of the last two seasons. In 2022, it was cornerback Charvarius Ward (three years, $42 million) and last year it was defensive tackle Javon Hargrave (four years, $84 million). Ward was a second-team All-Pro this season. Hargrave probably wasn’t as much of a force as they hoped but that’s the thing about the first wave of free agency — overpaying is part of the deal.
Tim Brown, who in his playing days was a member of the NFLPA executive board, told me long ago that with the franchise tag, no team loses a player it truly wants to keep. It’s pretty much the truth. That takes pass rushers Brian Burns (Carolina) and Josh Allen (Jacksonville) out of the picture as well as Tampa Bay do-everything safety Antoine Winfield Jr. and Kansas City corner L’Jarius Snead. (Snead, at least, has been given permission to seek a trade, but the Chiefs’ demands are liable to be too steep). Any one of those players would have been a difference-maker on the 49ers’ defense.
So maybe the 49ers make an early strike at Hunter, the Vikings’ edge rusher whose previous deal prohibited the franchise tag. Hunter had 27 of his 87 1/2 career sacks in the last two seasons. He’ll turn 30 during the 2024 season so a multi-year deal is a roll of the dice, although when playing amateur GM it’s pretty appealing to put him on the opposite side of Nick Bosa and turn them both loose.
Or they go the trade route instead and get Joey Bosa from the cap-strapped Chargers. He’d have two years left on his deal at $15 and $17 million, which could be extended to drop the cap figure. It’s hard to know how much Joey would want to reunite with Brandon Staley, his former Chargers head coach who is now a 49ers assistant, given that Nick told reporters Los Angeles needed a culture change after it moved on from Staley.
The 49ers may not be looking hard at Hunter or even consider going double-Bosa. They’re good at hiding their intentions — Ward and Hargrave were big surprises.
They’re also good at building a roster and a contender, whether the 49ers Faithful realize it or not.