Our Pac-12 MBB tournament picks: The favorites stumble, Colorado rises and WSU stands to win from losing
One school is not like the others this week as the final Pac-12’s tournament plays out over four days at T Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Eleven are better off winning in every respect.
One is better off losing in a critical aspect.
We aren’t suggesting Washington State should take the proverbial dive. The Cougars undoubtedly will play to win — they should play to win — and they would derive significant benefit from claiming the conference title.
But over the long haul, WSU’s bank account would be better off without a trophy.
The Cougars have secured a berth in the NCAA Tournament regardless of their results in Las Vegas. Only their seed in the 68-team field is unknown.
Maybe they climb to a fifth seed or fall to an eighth seed. The difference will impact their prospects for success, but only on the margins. Kyle Smith and Co. will face a daunting first-round game no matter where they land.
But if the Cougars lose in Las Vegas, somebody else wins. And that somebody could use the victory over WSU as propellant to climb into the NCAA Tournament, either by strengthening its at-large resume or by winning the Pac-12 title and claiming the league’s automatic bid.
Which brings us to WSU’s bank account.
Every game played in March Madness is one unit in the NCAA’s revenue distribution model; every unit is worth about $2 million over the course of the six-year payout cycle; and every dollar earned by the conference this spring goes to the ‘Pac-2’ schools over time.
(Unlike WSU, which has its NCAA bid secured, Oregon State must win the Pac-12 tournament. The event matters far more to the Beavers than the Cougars.)
If the Pac-12 sends three teams to the NCAAs instead of two, that’s an extra $1 million for the Cougars (if they split the revenue equally with OSU).
And if that third team happens to win a game, that’s $1 million more.
The likelihood of three teams making the field (and perhaps even four) will increase markedly if WSU does not win the Pac-12 title. In that coldest of calculations, the earlier the Cougars lose, the better. More avenues would open for others.
To repeat our position stated above, so there is no confusion: The Cougars will play to win, should play to win and must play to win.
But because of the unprecedented backdrop, with 10 schools departing the conference this summer and two remaining, WSU also stands to win by losing.
Our picks for the tournament …
(Note: All games will be televised by the Pac-12 Networks except the late games on Thursday and Friday, which are on FS1, and the championship, which is on Fox.)
Opening round (Wednesday)
No. 8 Washington vs. No. 9 USC (12 p.m.)Comment: UW announced late last week that coach Mike Hopkins will be dismissed whenever the season ends. We expect that moment to come Wednesday afternoon. The Huskies should muster a first-rate effort, but it won’t be enough. The Trojans are rolling at just the right time.Pick: USC
No. 5 UCLA vs. No. 12 Oregon State (2:30 p.m.)Comment: The Hotline is second guessing our initial assessment, published Sunday in the weekly Pac-12 power ratings, that the first team to 50 points would survive what should be an ugly affair. We are now convinced the first team to 40 will win.Pick: UCLA
No. 7 Cal vs. No. 10 Stanford (6 p.m.)Comment: The Bears won a close game at home in the middle of the season; the Cardinal won a lopsided affair at home last week. The Bears have the best player on the floor, Jaylon Tyson, but the Cardinal has more good players and has more talent than the No. 10 seed suggests.Pick: Stanford
No. 6 Utah vs. No. 11 Arizona State (8:30 p.m.)Comment: The Utes are on the wrong side of the NCAA bubble, in part, because they lost twice to ASU during the regular season. Neither game was particularly close. This version should be tight, but the result won’t change. The Sun Devils survive and advance.Pick: Arizona State
Quarterfinals (Thursday)
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 9 USC (12 p.m.)Comment: The Trojans are nothing like the team that lost in Tucson by 15 points and everything like the team that thumped Arizona last weekend. Granted, the Wildcats had just clinched the regular-season title two nights earlier and were not at their best in the Galen Center. But USC has the size and versatility to make life difficult for the top seed. Also, Isaiah Collier is good. Very, very good.Pick: USC
No. 4 Oregon vs. No. 5 UCLA (2:30 p.m.)Comment: Two teams that began the season with their sights on the NCAAs and now, after so many twists and turns, must win the Pac-12 tournament to reach the Madness. This could be the game of the week, largely because of the deep desperation on both sides.Pick: Oregon
No. 2 Washington State vs. No. 10 Stanford (6 p.m.)Comment: The Cougars take the court for the first time since their home loss to Washington last Thursday, and we expect some rust. Meanwhile, Stanford will be confident and loose as coach Jerod Haase refuses to make it easy for the Cardinal to act on the coaching change that several former players desire.Pick: Stanford
No. 3 Colorado vs. No. 11 Arizona State (8:30 p.m.)Comment: The hottest team in the conference takes the court in T Mobile Arena for the nightcap and wastes little time laying waste to the first of several victims.Pick: Colorado
Semifinals (Friday)
No. 4 Oregon vs. No. 9 USC (6 p.m.)Comment: For teams that advance out of the opening round, Day 3 is the point when legs become heavy. The Trojans will need production from players other than Collier and Boogie Ellis, plus a solid strategy to combat Oregon big man N’Faly Dante.Pick: USC
No. 3 Colorado vs. No. 10 Stanford (8:30 p.m.)Comment: CU has too many ways to score and the best player on the floor in point guard KJ Simpson. Given that the Buffaloes are on the NCAA bubble, we don’t see complacency as an issue even though they won handily two weeks ago in the only regular-season meeting. Close early, not close late.Pick: Colorado
Championship (Saturday)
No. 3 Colorado vs. No. 9 USC (6 p.m.)Comment: Colorado won the first conference tournament of the 12-school era in 2012 and will collect the trophy from the final edition — not because the arc of history bends toward Boulder but because coach Tad Boyle has the most complete team: an elite point guard (Simpson), a super-skilled wing (Tristan da Silva) and a future NBA Lottery Pick (Cody Williams) who is merely the third or fourth scoring option.Pick: Colorado
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