Mets 2024 Positional Outlook: Starting Pitchers

The Mets had a thin rotation entering the offseason, one led by Kodai Senga, but had a steep drop-off after him. While they didn’t make any huge splashes, they acquired a few pieces to support him — then, right around the start of spring training, Senga was diagnosed with a moderate right posterior capsule strain.

Senga is still expected to return in 2024, but it’s unclear how soon that can realistically happen. So, the Mets will have to settle with what they’ve got heading into the start of the 2024 season. And while the major league rotation might leave something to be desired, the Mets do have a strong crop of talent coming up through the ranks to take over during the next few years.

Big League Starters

Keeping in mind Senga’s injury that will sideline him at the start of the season, the Mets’ rotation likely looks something like this.

José Quintana

Age: 35
Contract: Two years, $26M (free agent after 2024)
Roster Status: 40-man roster

2024 Preview: Quintana would have been the No. 2 after Senga, but Senga’s absence makes him the most reliable option left. There’s no guarantee that he’ll be the Mets’ best pitcher, necessarily — especially given his age. But over the last two years, he’s been the best of any of the Mets’ options, so he’s the de facto No. 1, at least in the short term.

Quintana is also the longest-tenured and most experienced pitcher on the Mets. He’s had an impressive career with a 3.74 ERA posted across 12 major league seasons. He had a stretch from 2013 to 2016 where he threw at least 200 innings in four consecutive seasons.

And while he’s no longer quite as young or spry as in those days, he still put up a 2.93 ERA in 32 starts in 2022. Last season, he only made 13 starts but posted a 3.57 ERA. He’s settled nicely back into form after a rough 2021. The biggest concerns are his age and durability, but he should be a rock-solid rotation piece if he stays on the mound.

Luis Severino

Age: 30
Contract: One year, $13M (free agent after 2024)
Roster Status: 40-man roster

2024 Preview: Severino might be the biggest wild card in this rotation. He was one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2017 and 2018 and worked his way back from an injury to throw 102 strong innings in 2022. But he had a dastardly 2023. His strikeout rate was down, his walk rate was up, and his ERA rose to 6.65.

However, Severino saw an uptick in velocity near the end of his 2023 campaign, and the early signs in spring training have been encouraging. Severino has something to prove, and if he can make the whole package right again, the Mets could have found a gem in this signing. He has ace potential, and he’s still young enough that it’s not unreasonable to hope for a bounceback. The issue is that it’s hard to be fully confident in what to expect from Severino after his ugly 2023.

Sean Manaea

Age: 32
Contract: Two years, $28M (free agent after 2025)
Roster Status: 40-man roster

2024 Preview: Manaea is another pitcher who’s trying to prove he can still be his best self. His results haven’t been as extreme as Severino’s — on either side of the spectrum — but he’s at a similar stage in his career. He posted a 3.59 ERA in 2018 but had shoulder surgery and missed most of 2019. He put up a 1.21 ERA in five starts upon his return at the end of the 2019 season.

Manaea had a solid 3.91 ERA in 2021 but then struggled to the tune of a 4.96 ERA for the Padres in 2022. He was a little better in 2023 with a 4.44 ERA, while adding a couple of ticks to his four-seam fastball and introducing an effective sweeper to his arsenal. Manaea, like Severino, is the glue that could make or break the middle of this rotation.

Adrian Houser

Age: 31
Contract: One year, $5.05M (free agent after 2024)
Roster Status: 40-man roster

2024 Preview: The Mets acquired Houser in a December trade with the Brewers. Ideally, the team would only rely on him to be the No. 5 starter, but like everyone else, he moves up a spot with Senga’s injury.

Houser’s best year came in 2021 when he put up a career-low 3.22 ERA in a career-high 142 1/3 innings. His ERA rose to 4.73 in 2022, then dropped to 4.12 last season. His entire MLB career until this point has been spent with the Brewers. He has an even 4.00 ERA for his career, and the projections all have him posting a mark in the mid-4.00s somewhere. A low-to-mid 4.00 ERA with a start total in the low-to-mid 20s would be a reasonable expectation for Houser in 2024.

Tylor Megill

Age: 28
Contract: Pre-arbitration (free agent after 2028)
Roster Status: 40-man roster

2024 Preview: With the additions of Severino, Manaea and Houser, Megill probably thought he was going to have to go above and beyond to earn a spot in the Opening Day rotation. But Senga’s injury opened the door, and David Peterson won’t be ready until at least the summer.

Megill had an up-and-down 2023, and this will be an important year for him. He’s yet to really prove himself and earn a spot on the big league team, but he’s shown enough flashes of success to stick around. And he’s had an impressive spring training, for what it’s worth. Megill needs to take more consistent strides in 2024, otherwise, his clock will start running out, and the Mets will either move on or try him out in the bullpen.

Big League Depth

José Buttó

Age: 25
Contract: Pre-arbitration
Roster Status: 40-man roster

2024 Preview: Buttó was a pleasant surprise during his big league time in 2023. Though he walked too many with 23 in 42 innings, he limited hitters to a .212 average and posted a 3.64 ERA. This is despite an ERA approaching 6.00 in Syracuse.

Buttó’s brief bout of big league success isn’t sustainable given his control issues and inexperience, but he at least provides a worthy fallback option in the inevitable case of another injury.

Joey Lucchesi

Age: 30
Contract: Third year of arbitration (free agent after 2026)
Roster Status: 40-man roster

Lucchesi, like Buttó, was a welcome surprise in a relatively small sample size in 2023. He posted a 2.89 ERA in nine starts. It’s worth noting that his xERA was 5.48 and FIP was 4.22, in large part due to a career-low 6.17 K/9. Still, Lucchesi has a 4.09 ERA across nearly 400 major league innings and is another solid backup.

Upper-Level Depth

Mike Vasil

Age: 23
Contract: Minor league
Roster Status: Not on 40-man roster

2024 Preview: Vasil will likely begin the season at Triple-A after succeeding in Double-A and struggling in Syracuse last year.

In 10 starts for Binghamton, he had a pristine 10.06 K/9 and 1.41 BB/9, but his 1.41 HR/9 was too high. It resulted in a 3.71 ERA. His ERA was 5.30 in 16 starts for Syraucse, with his walk rate rising to 4.68. The focus for Vasil this season will be cleaning things up in Triple-A.

Dominic Hamel

Age: 25
Contract: Minor league
Roster Status: Not on 40-man roster

2024 Preview: Hamel should get the call to Syracuse in 2024 after a successful stint in Double-A and a non-roster invite to major league spring training. He posted a 3.85 ERA with an 11.61 K/9 for Binghamton.

Christian Scott

Age: 24
Contract: Minor league
Roster Status: Not on 40-man roster

2024 Preview: Scott was the Mets’ biggest breakout prospect last year. He started the year at Single-A but quickly moved on to High-A, where his 2.28 ERA in 23 2/3 innings earned him the call to Binghamton. He shined at the Double-A level, posting a 2.47 ERA in 62 innings — and with strong peripherals of 11.18 K/9 and 1.16 BB/9. Like Hamel, the logical next step is a Triple-A promotion to start the 2024 season.

Coming Soon

Blade Tidwell

Age: 22
Contract: Minor league
Roster Status: Not on 40-man roster

2024 Preview: Tidwell succeeded in Binghamton and struggled in Syracuse last year. As one of the younger top Mets pitching prospects, he might get a little more seasoning at the Double-A level before returning to Triple-A. He particularly needs to get his walk rate down, which sat around five at both levels in 2023. In any case, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Tidwell spend time at both Double-A and Triple-A in 2024, but the aforementioned pitching prospects are likely all ahead of him in line at this time.

Brandon Sproat

Age: 23
Contract: Minor league
Roster Status: Not on 40-man roster

2024 Preview: Sproat is yet to make his professional debut after being drafted three times — twice by the Mets. FanGraphs Roster Resource projects him to start at High-A Brooklyn. He had solid numbers as a starter for the Florida Gators over the last two seasons, and his age should speed up his progression a little bit, but he still has a ways to go before being major league ready.

Tyler Stuart

Age: 24
Contract: Minor league
Roster Status: Not on 40-man roster

2024 Preview: Stuart put up a 1.55 ERA in 14 starts for Brooklyn last year before posting a 3.60 ERA in seven starts for Binghamton. He’ll probably start the 2024 season at Double-A, but if he continues to succeed, a relatively quick promotion to Triple-A should be in order.

Overall, the Mets have a passable major league rotation that carries some question marks but possesses at least enough talent to get by. Their MLB rotation depth is only average at best — especially given the injuries that have limited their options — but the future bodes well with a handful of talented up-and-comers.

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