The Rap-Up: Entering a new phase of Raptors basketball

As Toronto begins the next phase of their development, this week’s opponents offer a glimpse into what the future beholds.

If you were stubborn, like me, and felt the Toronto Raptors still had a chance for the play-in (post-All-Star, but pre-Scottie-Barnes injury), that all went away with the rash of injuries that befell Toronto over the last two weeks.

“One of the biggest signs that a team is entering tank mode is its injury report.”

I wrote that last week when previewing the Raptors-Blazers game. Little did I know — which happens often when you’re previewing a weekend game the Sunday before — that statement would actually refer to Toronto’s situation. While Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl are out for the foreseeable future (I’m not sure why the Raptors aren’t just sitting them for the remaining 5 weeks of the season), they were joined on the sidelines by Bruce Brown, RJ Barrett, DJ Carton, and, likely, Chris Boucher.....this week alone.

To be clear, the Raptors aren’t tanking. They simply won’t go anywhere by purposely losing games. The only team Toronto can drop below in the overall standings is Memphis, who are 2 games worse in the loss column. Whether Toronto finishes with the 6th or 7th-worst record, the top-6-protected pick they owe San Antonio will boil down to how the lottery balls fall on May 12th.

This was a long-winded way of saying: Enjoy the ‘Wins & Lessons’ portion of this Raptors season. The week ahead offers a quick glimpse of Toronto’s future, in 3 phases. Detroit is in the rebuilding phase with a superstar brimming with potential. Orlando is in the reinstating phase with an emerging young core that should be competitive for years to come. Denver is in the realization phase with a championship core with proven experience and a foundation for continued success.

What lessons can be learned this week?

March 11 @ Denver Nuggets

The 2019-20 Toronto Raptors had an aura of invincibility. Even with the departures of Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green, every game felt like it would end in a Raptors victory. It didn’t matter if Toronto was missing multiple starters, playing a back-to-back, or trailing by 30 points, the confidence of being the defending champions is palpable.

The Denver Nuggets have that same aura.

The defending champs have won 8 of its last 9 games, including wins over the Kings, Heat, Lakers, and Celtics (sweeping the season series). The only loss came in overtime against the Suns where Nikola Jokic missed a buzzer-beater in regulation that would have capped an incredible 22-point second-half comeback.

Similar to the Raptors team from 5 seasons ago, the Nuggets are getting solid contributions up and down the roster. Jamal Murray is one of three players in the NBA averaging at least 20 points and 5 assists on 48/40/85 shooting. The other two are Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. Michael Porter Jr. is easily having his healthiest season. With 63 games (out of 64) played, MPJ has already played more games than in any of his other 5 seasons. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ranks 10th in total steals while also hitting 40% of his threes. Aaron Gordon joins Jokic in the top 20 in FG% while also forming one of the best duos in the NBA.

Fun fact that may only interest me

When these teams met earlier this season, Nikola Jokic produced an incredible stat line: 31 points, 15 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 three-pointers, and 2 blocks. Basketball Reference has a stat called Game Score that compiles all of the stats compiled by a player in a specific game and attaches a single value to that production.

Jokic’s Game Score from that game was 29.0.

Number of games this season when any Raptor had a Game Score of 29 or higher: 5

Number of games this season when Jokic had a Game Score of 29 or higher: 28

Prediction

Dealing with the altitude is enough of a factor for most teams visiting Denver. The Raptors have also been hit hard by the injury bug. Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl are likely out for the season after each had surgeries on their left hands last week. RJ Barrett (illness) and Bruce Brown (right knee inflammation) have been joined by Chris Boucher in the “Questionable” section of the injury report after suffering a right knee contusion during Saturday’s game in Portland.

The Nuggets are 25-6 at home this season. Only the Celtics (29-3) have a better home record. This game wraps up a 4-game homestand for the Nuggets before kicking off a 4-game road trip in Miami. It’s the beginning of the week, which bodes well for a Denver team that’s 9-1 on Mondays.

Not much further analysis is needed on this one. Denver routs the visiting Raptors 133-106.

March 13 @ Detroit Pistons

The Raptors cannot tank over the final 5 weeks because the teams with worse records, like the Pistons, have lost too many games for Toronto to “catch up” to them. However, Toronto does own Detroit’s second-round pick in the upcoming draft. You’d think a 28-game losing streak would ensure the Pistons (Raptors) would be the first team on the clock for the second round (a 24-hour clock, now that the draft is two days long), but the Washington Wizards have been trying their hardest to unseat Detroit as the NBA’s worst. The Wizards have promptly won their last two games, after losing 16 straight, to hand the worst record back to Detroit.

Unlike the Raptors’ odds of keeping their first-round pick, Toronto can help control their second-round pick by getting a W — in front of a Raptors-heavy crowd to boot.

Fun fact that may only interest me

Nikola Jokic. Luka Doncic. LeBron James. Trae Young.

Those are the only other players in the league averaging as many points (22.6) and assists (7.5) as Cade Cunningham.

Similar to Barnes in Toronto, Cunningham is the silver lining in a lost season. As Detroit continues to build around him, Cade’s numbers are only going to get better.

Prediction

Detroit has only won 5 of its 30 home games this season. Of course, one of those wins was against the Raptors. (Does anyone remember that one? It was the game where the Pistons had lost 28 straight and had a chance to break the record for the longest losing streak in NBA history. No? Am I the only one who hasn’t wiped it from their memory?)

Detroit’s in the middle of a stretch where they’re playing 8 of its next 9 games at home. Although, this game will likely feel like a road game as Toronto fans flood Little Caesars Arena.

A fairly specific number I’ll be watching is Toronto’s made three-point field goals. The Raptors have scored between 12 and 16 three-pointers in each of their last 9 games (13.8 average). The Pistons are 2-10 when opponents hit exactly 14 or 15 three-pointers (Toronto drained 14 threes in their victory over Detroit earlier this season).

The outcome of this game rests heavily on who is available for the Raptors. With very few “winnable” games remaining on the schedule, this one may sting a little more as Detroit defeats Toronto 118-116.

March 15 & 17 vs/@ Orlando Magic

If you’re searching for hope in a lost Raptors season, then look no further than the Orlando Magic from last season. Heading into the All-Star break in 2023, Orlando was 11 games under .500 and sitting in 13th place in the East. No one would be surprised if the Magic went all-in on tank mode and tried to improve their odds in the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes.

Instead, Head Coach, Jamahl Mosley used the second half of the season to develop chemistry within his team and help his players improve game by game. The Magic never got close to a play-in spot but did win 5 of 6 in the middle of March and produced the 3rd-best defense in the NBA (post-All-Star break).

This season, Mosley is seeing the fruits of his labour. Paolo Banchero made his first All-Star appearance. The Wagner brothers, Franz and Mo, fresh from their gold-medal-winning performance during last Summer’s FIBA World Cup, have put together the best seasons of their respective careers. Jalen Suggs is showing why Raptors fans were clamoring for the front office to draft him. He’s a strong candidate for an All-Defense selection and has improved his outside shooting dramatically from 21% three-point shooting in his rookie campaign to 39% this season. Goga Bitadze has been a revelation for Orlando, ranking 15th in blocks per game.

More importantly, Orlando is seeing gains in the standings. With Philadelphia and New York ravaged with injuries, the Magic stealthily snuck into 4th place last week.

This is they way, Darko Rajakovic!

Fun fact that may only interest me

This is about as fun of a fact that’ll only interest me as possible. Unless it also affects the Raptors, which it does, and will then be of great interest to you!

Good news for Magic fans, Orlando only has 1 more game this season that starts at :30.

Good news for Raptors fans, that one game is the first one in this doubleheader.

Prediction

There is a lot to like about this Magic team. Offensively, they’re one of the best at getting free points, ranking 3rd in free throws attempted and 1st in free throw rate. The defense, however, is where the Orlando Magic really shines. They force turnovers at a higher percentage than any team in the NBA. The Magic are #1 in rebounds AND assists allowed. So, good luck crashing the glass or avoiding isolation scenarios. In 2024, the Raptors are 2-7 against teams ranked in the top 10 in defense.

Last season, Toronto was 1 game above .500 before playing a doubleheader in Orlando in early December. The Raptors played with their food in the first game and lost, then got outworked a couple of nights later. Those losses were seen as the turning point in the Raptors’ season, as they never got above .500 until the final week of the season.

Toronto may already have eyes toward next season, but a solid performance (or two) against the Magic could turn around the outlook for next year. The Raptors win at home 112-110 before losing in Orlando 123-109.

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Last Week: 2-1

Season Record: 41-23