BREAKING: Dylan Cease finally on the move, traded to Padres

The South Siders received three of San Diego’s Top 10 prospects in the deal

The Dylan Cease trade, which has been anticipated for months, has finally happened. The Padres are the winners of the Cease Sweepstakes, as the ace of the White Sox will be heading to San Diego.

Cease, 28, had an excellent career with the White Sox. In 658 innings across five seasons, Cease posted a 3.83 ERA, a 3.86 FIP, and a 4.02 xFIP, resulting in a total of 13.0 fWAR. The righthander finished second in AL Cy Young voting in 2022 , when he posted a 2.20 ERA in 184 innings. He finished only behind Justin Verlander, who incredibly finished with a 1.75 ERA that year.

In 2023, Cease fell back down to earth, posting a 4.58 ERA, although his peripherals (3.72 FIP, 4.08 xFIP, .330 BABIP against him) indicated that luck was partially to blame for his ERA last year, as was Chicago’s horrendous defense. Moving forward, Cease most likely still has a substantial amount of good baseball left in his right arm. However, given that the White Sox are in no position to compete in 2024, and he has just two years before free agency, the timing of this trade made sense. Best of luck to Cease as he continues his career in San Diego.

For several minutes after the news of the trade broke, fans anxiously anticipated news of who the White Sox were getting in return. Eventually, Jon Morosi and Bob Nightengale broke the news that pitchers Drew Thorpe, Jairo Iriarte, Steven Wilson, and outfielder Samuel Zavala are heading to the South Side.

Of those four players, only Wilson (a 29-year-old reliever) has played in the majors. Since making his debut in 2022, Wilson has posted a 3.48 ERA, a 4.33 FIP, and a 4.96 xFIP, resulting in 0.7 fWAR in 106 MLB innings. The White Sox need some stable innings from the bullpen, and Wilson has been able to do that at an affordable price. The righty is a low-risk addition to a pen desperate for arms, so he seems to be a good match for the South Siders’ current situation.

Now, onto the prospects.

Drew Thorpe, 23, is a right-handed starter who was No. 5 on MLB Pipeline’s ranking of Padres prospects and No. 85 in all of baseball. Last year, Thorpe was in the Yankees’ system, where he put up fantastic numbers in High-A (2.81 ERA, 3.30 FIP in 109 innings) and Double-A (1.48 ERA, 2.15 FIP in 30 1⁄3 innings). Thorpe has an average fastball, but his main strengths are his changeup (70-graded by MLB Pipeline), his slider (55), and control (60). Thorpe was already in line to get some serious playing time in the majors this season, and he almost surely will see a lot of time with the White Sox, who desperately need innings.

Jairo Iriarte, 22, is the other pitching prospect coming over from San Diego. The righty starter ranks No. 8 among Padres prospects. In 61 innings in High-A in 2023, Iriarte had a 3.10 ERA and a 3.08 FIP. During a shorter stint at the Double-A level, Iriarte posted a 4.30 ERA and a 3.15 FIP in 29 1⁄3 innings. Unlike Thorpe, Iriarte has a fantastic fastball, but his control is potentially problematic. Iriarte’s strikeout rates were off the charts last year (11.36 K/9 in High-A, 15.65 K/9 in Double-A), but his walk rate is a cause for concern (4.13 BB/9 in High-A, 5.22 BB/9 in Double-A). If Iriarte manages to improve his command, he could be extremely dangerous to MLB hitters.

Finally, there is a position player involved in this trade, and his name is Samuel Zavala (no relation to Seby, who hit his first three MLB home runs in one game). Zavala, 19, is a left-handed outfielder who primarily plays center field, although he also has some experience in right. Zavala was No. 7 among San Diego’s prospects, per MLB Pipeline. Like Iriarte, Zavala is not expected to get serious MLB playing time in 2024, although he will most likely arrive on the South Side at some point in 2025. Zavala shows an enormous amount of potential, and he tore up Low-A pitching in his age-18 season last year (.267/.420/.451, 140 wRC+ in 101 games). Zavala also swiped 20 bases in 26 attempts, and unlike many White Sox hitters, if a pitch was out of the zone, he was able to lay off. Plate discipline is difficult to master, but Zavala already displays excellent recognition of the strike zone.

To make room for both Wilson and Iriarte on the 40-man roster, the White Sox waived outfielder Peyton Burdick, a recent waiver signing from Baltimore.

Although it is very difficult to replace a pitcher as talented as Cease, at first glance, this return for two years of Cease’s services before he departs for greener pastures appears to be reasonable. It will be interesting to see if the acquisitions live up to the hype.