How do we solve a problem like China? 

At last week’s State of the Union, President Biden addressed China — the elephant in the room — reiterating his view that “we want competition with China, but not conflict.” 

“For years, all I’ve heard from my Republican friends and so many others is that China’s on the rise and America is falling behind,” said Biden. “They’ve got it backward. America is rising.”   

But if you listen to Chinese President Xi Jinping, you hear the opposite: “the East is rising, and the West is declining.” 

So, who is right? 

One piece of evidence that China is struggling is the huge numbers of Chinese trying to get into America — the fourth largest immigrant group crossing the border today. 

Some Chinese are seeking legal asylum, claiming persecution on political grounds and economic hardship. The proposed bipartisan immigration bill would provide additional lawyers and judges to make determinations. 

More and more Chinese are trying to cross the border illegally, where they are intercepted by U.S. authorities. Last year, U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported 37,000 Chinese citizens were apprehended, a full 50 times more than two years earlier. 

What is driving the estimated 700,000 Chinese out of China — the seventh most populous country in the world and the world’s second largest economy? 

First, like many societies, China has an aging population and low fertility rates compounded by high youth unemployment. Its population shrank by 850,000 people in 2022 and by over 2 million last year. It is projected that the population could go from 1.4 billion to just 525 million by 2100. 

Decades ago, China built thousands and thousands of apartment buildings for what it foresaw as a rising population and urbanization, but that real estate boom ran into a financial crisis after government crackdowns on borrowing. The result is massive numbers of empty, half-built apartments and a slowing of China’s annual rate of development. Its GDP once hovered around 9 percent. Now it is struggling to get to 5 percent. 

Another reason for Chinese migration to the U.S. are aftershocks from the pandemic. China’s zero-COVID policy left many Chinese angry and fearful about a tough economy and a diminished health care system.  

Political crackdowns are also scaring away business. Apple, for example, has seen its sales fall by 24 percent in January and the first few weeks of February after the government banned the use of iPhones for government officials last year.  

Since coming to power in 2012, President Xi has put into place hardline nationalistic policies, with tight control of the economy and expanding reach of the Communist Party. American businesses in China are getting nervous about new espionage laws that often lead to raids on U.S. companies, according to the U.S. Ambassador to China, Nicholas Burns, who taught at Harvard for many years. 

"I think there's been a contradiction in the messaging from the government here in China to the rest of the world. On the one hand, they say, 'We're open for business. We want American, Japanese businesses here,'" Burns said. "But on the other hand, they've raided six or seven American businesses since last March." 

Some good news for China is a bump in foreign trade, with exports rising by 7.1 percent this month — a lot higher than the December figure of 2.3 percent. 

To be clear, we do want — and need — immigrants from China. For example, Chinese students at our universities provide cross-cultural ties, and contribute to our economy in spending on tuition, supplies etc. According to the Institute for International Education, China remains the top sender of students to the United States, though the numbers are falling. (International students contributed $40 billion to the U.S. last year.) 

We desperately seek highly skilled Chinese scientists and engineers to come here and stay. A new report by the National Foundation for American Policy lays out the risks for Silicon Valley and the chip industry if we don’t get Chinese talent here. 

Despite its economy, Chinese advances in biotechnology, robotics, artificial intelligence and data are sources of competition with America. A fight over TikTok is brewing, with new bipartisan House legislation that would force the Chinese owner of the popular video app to sell it or be banned in the United States. 

Meanwhile, China is strengthening its military and nuclear capabilities, with a conflict over Taiwan a continued threat. 

Be it immigration or broader foreign policy, China is critical to America and the world economy and security. The fact that many of its citizens seek to leave the country provides a small window of opportunity if we can sort out how best to manage the flow in a way that protects our intellectual products. As the British poet John Donne wrote, “No man (or woman) is an island entire to itself. Each is a piece of the continent, a part of the main.” 

Isolationism is a poor substitute for the hard work of engagement. 

Tara D. Sonenshine is nonresident fellow at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.