American Foreign Policy in the Middle East Hinges on Saudi Arabia

It is time for America to get off its back heel and start proactively securing the Middle East. Israel’s ongoing conflict with Hamas is a significant hurdle, but it also presents an opportunity for transformative peace once the conflict ends. The key to unlocking this potential lies with Saudi Arabia.

Israel has said that the conflict with Hamas could last several more months. When it ends, Arab countries will be hard-pressed to work together with Israel. 

The 2020 Abraham Accords established diplomatic ties between Israel and Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, and Sudan. In the months before the October 7 attack, there were also serious negotiations to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. 

The Israel-Hamas conflict halted those talks. Hamas, with support from Saudi Arabia’s mutual enemy, Iran, perfectly timed its attack to undermine a normalization pact between Israel and Saudi Arabia. 

We cannot afford to let Iran and Hamas derail what would be a critically beneficial relationship for all sides. America needs to proactively seek out an agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia is in a unique position. The country’s oil wealth has given it a tremendous amount of influence and independence. America and China are both heavily invested in Saudi Arabia. The Saudis purchase more than $100 billion worth of weapons and defense equipment from the US each year. 

To capitalize on this unique standing, Saudi Arabia could lead the way in revitalizing Gaza post-conflict. By focusing on reconstruction, infrastructure development, and humanitarian assistance, Saudi Arabia can ensure that support for the Palestinian people is used constructively, avoiding the pitfalls of previous aid efforts that inadvertently empowered Hamas.

These factors give Saudi Arabia a weight that other regional actors lack. If the US and Israel want to expand the Abraham Accords in the wake of the Israel-Hamas conflict, they must start with Saudi Arabia. 

The Saudis have three broad strategic objectives: Increasing their stature on the international stage, becoming less reliant on oil revenue, and countering Iran.

Saudi Arabia has captured headlines recently with the acquisition of major sports franchises, tournaments, and players in an attempt to make itself an international cultural force. A major obstacle has been a reputation for oppression and human rights violations.

By utilizing its wealth and influence to help revitalize the Palestinian people, Saudi Arabia would become a true global ambassador. 

Neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority is qualified to lead the Palestinian people. Saudi Arabia, perhaps working alongside more moderate and technocratic Palestinians, could offer both financial stability and leadership support. It would gain a stake and say in the future of the Palestinian people. The money that the Saudis would invest would not be used to fund Hamas, like previous aid from Arab countries, but for reconstruction, infrastructure, and humanitarian assistance.

Stabilizing the Middle East also makes sense from an economic perspective. Saudi Arabia needs foreign investors to diversify its oil-dependent economy. A peaceful and stable Middle East, forged mainly by the Saudis, would go a long way towards increasing investments. 

The final factor to consider in a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia is Iran. Iran is a mortal enemy of both Israel and Saudi Arabia. Since 2015, Saudi Arabia has been involved in a war against the Houthis, an Iranian proxy, in Yemen. Although there is currently a ceasefire in place, Saudi Arabia and Iran remain deeply hostile towards each other.  

Recently, the Houthis have been attacking ships in the Red Sea and disrupting international commerce, as well as firing missiles and drones at Israel. An Israeli-Saudi peace agreement would further those two countries’ ability to counter Iran and confront the Houthi threat. 

Another significant benefit to an Israeli-Saudi accord would be the possibility of realizing the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).

IMEC would consist of a ship-rail-transit network from India across the Middle East to Europe, and would include both Israel and Saudi Arabia. The railway would boost economic growth in the region and beyond, provide an alternative to shipping goods through the Red Sea or around the Cape of Good Hope, and stand as a bulwark against China’s Belt and Road initiative. 

IMEC has been put on hold due to the Israel-Hamas war. However, it is another long-term benefit that can be accrued through an Israeli-Saudi deal. 

The United States must seize this moment to broker a deal that leverages Saudi Arabia’s potential as a stabilizing force and a beacon of progress in the Middle East. Such an agreement would not only be in America’s interest, but would also herald a new chapter of peace and prosperity for the entire region. 

Gregg Roman is director of the Middle East Forum and a former official at the Israeli Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense.