It will be a while, if ever, before the US government bans TikTok. The Senate still must approve. The company could be challenged in court. And politicians facing a November 2024 election might still back away, fearful of alienating influencers, small businesses, and voters. In an unguarded moment, US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo once warned that banning TikTok could lead to the “loss of every voter under 35, forever.” 

These risks are clear even before weighing the broad implications for US-China relations. Messaging app WeChat, which boasts more than one billion users, might fall within the scope of the bipartisan bill’s language, which targets social networks exceeding one million users. Could the bill cover other companies besides social media applications owned by China or other “foreign adversary countries?” What about potential ownership in case ByteDance divests? In 2020, amid former President Donald Trump’s threats of a ban, ByteDance sought out Microsoft as a potential partner. Could Meta (recently branded by Trump as the “enemy of the people”) overcome antitrust concerns to become a contender for TikTok’s ownership? If a forced sale does not happen, are there legal implications for individuals who continue to use the TikTok app? 

Despite the myriad of unanswered questions, the House’s approval of forced TikTok sale to a non-Chinese owner is notable. Democrats and Republicans seem to agree on almost nothing except that TikTok poses a grave national security risk. 

It took only a little more than a week for the US House of Representatives to initiate and pass the bipartisan bill.   

Beyond the potential populist instinct to “stick it to the Chinese,” several concerns united legislators: ByteDance’s connections to the People’s Republic of China, the potential for Chinese authorities to access data of US citizens, and apprehension about TikTok’s capacity to facilitate and amplify cyber and information operations, surrounding the 2024 presidential elections. In a notable move, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence singled out TikTok as a Chinese propaganda tool targeting candidates from both – Republican and Democratic parties. Intelligence officials briefed House committees on the national security risks associated with TikTok, although these details remain secret.  

TikTok has been working with the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States to address national security-related challenges, even coming close to the agreement. The company’s Project Texas promises to store US user data on domestic servers operated by the US company Oracle. TikTok has also proposed that Oracle and a third party could review source code. But the Biden Administration remained dissatisfied, allowing the House to move forward with the divestment demand. 

The bill now must navigate through the Senate, where the House’s bipartisan support might dwindle. Critics cite doubts about its effectiveness. Others worry about the constitutionality of a forced sale. TikTok or someone else could challenge the bill’s legality in court, delaying a possible ban or seeing a judge prevent it. 

TikTok plans to exhaust all existing legal measures, arguing that the new federal bill effectively proposes a ban without outright declaring one, contradicting the legal principle of “what cannot be done directly, cannot be done indirectly.” 

Although President Joseph Biden has pledged to sign the bill should the Senate still approve it, his campaign team is making active use of TikTok to engage with Gen-Z first-time voters. Republican candidate Trump seems even more conflicted. The former President, who saw courts block his attempts while in office to force a TikTok sale, now opposes the bill. 

Beyond alienating young voters, a TikTok ban could impact small businesses who count on the app. TikTok has 170 million active users and supports seven million US businesses. According to TikTok, these businesses contributed $24.2bn to GDP in the US, supporting 224,000 jobs and paying $4.5 billion in taxes in 2023. Some 37% of the surveyed TikTok-using small business owners consider the platform critical to their business’s survival, with 52% stating it is essential to maintain a competitive edge. 

TikTok has become a crucial test case of US tech policy toward meeting the challenge from China. But the outcome for the social media app is unlikely to provide black-and-white answers. 

Mariami Tkeshelashvili is an intern for CEPA’s Digital Innovation Initiative. 

Bandwidth is CEPA’s online journal dedicated to advancing transatlantic cooperation on tech policy. All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis.

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