Bracket Breakdown IV: Can the Huskies repeat? Plus a look at the East Region
The NCAA Tournament begins in earnest Thursday with Michigan State facing Mississippi State on CBS at 12:15 p.m. (I’m taking MSU). Sixteen games on back-to-back days with the final buzzer sounding after midnight both evenings.
Brace yourself for a diet of blowouts and upsets, prepare to become familiar with some kids you’ve never heard of before, and get ready for “that guy” at the office who tells you how his picks are doing Thursday afternoon (and if you are that guy, dial it down until the end of the first weekend).
The East not only sports the defending national champ and overall No. 1 seed UConn, but there are 10 other conference tournament winners (most of any region) in this quadrant of the bracket.
This group includes everybody from first-time participant Stetson (the Hatters draw the Huskies in the First Round) to feels-like-forever Duquesne (the Dukes last danced in 1977, when there were 32 teams and before seeding), while boasting SEC champ Auburn, Big Ten titlist Illinois and Big 12 winner Iowa State. The Huskies’ road back to the Final Four is far from a cakewalk.
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Last year I went on record liking the Drake. Then I was loving the Drake when the Bulldogs took a 55-47 second half lead over Miami in the First Round (classic 12-5 upset in play here). I wound up hating the Drake after the Hurricanes finished the game on a 16-1 run over the final 5:40 of regulation on their way to the Final Four.
One year later, I’m loving the Drake again after they rolled through the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. They also face a Washington State team that’s fading (three losses in six games) and boast a dynamic guard in Tucker DeVries who leads the team in scoring, assists and steals while ranking second in rebounding and blocked shots. Loving the Drake! At least for one round.
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San Diego State shocked the world on its way to the Final Four last March. This year, as the hunted, the Aztecs found their way into the Top 25 only to fade after February’s end (2-3 in March). It’s tough to get to consecutive Final Fours — or even Sweet Sixteens — and just like the Aztecs got some fortunate bounces against Charleston, Creighton and FAU last year, I don’t see them getting those bounces this March.
Gold
UConn is on a mission to become the first repeat NCAA winner since Florida in 2007, and those Gators are the last defending champs to advance past the Regional Semifinals. But this year’s mix has been playing in a manner that would make the Huskies’ previous titlists (1999, 2004, 2011, 2014 and 2023) proud. Tristen Newton has gone from supporting player to the lead dog, pacing the team in scoring and assists while ranking second in rebounding. They’ve posted seven- and 14-game winning streaks already this season and have won seven straight entering the NCAA Tournament. I see a 13-game winning streak after all is over and a repeat for this beast of the Big East.