‘Eternal Sunshine’: Why Ariana Grande’s new era might be her ticket to Grammy glory

Ariana Grande’s “Eternal Sunshine” has been somewhat of a surprise smash hit, right? While Grande has always been a huge star, it did seem like her star power had been gradually decreasing since her 2020 release, “Positions,” which did well by any pop star’s standards, but was a bit muted in the long run compared to her previous blockbuster “Thank U, Next.” Grande then faced public scrutiny in 2023 due to rumors surrounding her and “Wicked” co-star Ethan Slater, with speculation that Slater was still married and with a newborn child when he and Grande began a relationship. While those stories have been challenged, there was still the possibility of damage to her career.

That was not the case though. “Eternal Sunshine” debuted with 227,000 units in its first week in the US alone, more than 50,000 units better than her last album. The album also ended up being a huge streaming hit, achieving the biggest debut of the year so far on Global Spotify and remaining quite stable in its second week. The album also turned out a number-one lead single, “Yes, And?,” and an even bigger hit with “We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love).” The emotional dance-pop track kept rising throughout the album’s release week and ended up debuting at number-one on the global and Hot 100 charts, making it her ninth chart-topper. As of March 20, the track was still on top on the Global Spotify chart, so it seems like Grande’s got an especially big hit on her hands. The album also received an 83 score on Metacritic, indicating critical acclaim. It’s her second highest album score after “Thank U, Next.”

Grande’s success might extend to the Grammys, for a few reasons. First, this is the strongest Best Pop Vocal Album contender we have so far. There are new releases coming from Taylor Swift (“The Tortured Poets Department“) and Dua Lipa (“Radical Optimism”), but Grande might be ahead of them; Swift just won the category for the second time, which means she’s unlikely to repeat so soon, and Lipa is in a similar position, winning her first Pop Vocal Album award not that long ago (2021).

Grande might also be due a second Pop Vocal Album win at this point, especially since this album will likely tie her with Kelly Clarkson, another two-time winner, for the most nominations in the category’s history. And if “Eternal Sunshine” wins Pop Vocal Album, it could also be competitive for Album of the Year: the same album has won both awards for the last two years (Swift’s “Midnights” and Harry Styles‘s “Harry’s House”), likely due to how well-represented pop voters are in the Recording Academy. Narrative might also be in her favor. Her fellow artists might be impressed by Grande’s ability to come back strong after so much public scrutiny.

There might also be a chance for Grande to win for her singles. “We Can’t Be Friends” might end up being the biggest hit up for Best Pop Solo Performance. But besides that, a lot of the big hits this year so far are from newer artists like Benson Boone and Tate McRae. Pop voters tend to shy away from newer artists unless they’re a massive pop culture phenomenon, so they might prefer to give their vote to Grande, who has not won the category before.

In Best Pop Dance Recording for “Yes, And?,” the same reasoning applies, although Dua Lipa’s “Houdini” might give it a run for its money. And in the general field, the strength of “We Can’t Be Friends” (assuming that’s the single she submits) could come from how sentimental it is and how much it connects with listeners emotionally, like previous Record or Song of the Year winners like Billie Eilish‘s “Everything I Wanted,” Miley Cyrus‘s “Flowers” and Bonnie Raitt‘s “Just Like That.”

It’s still too early to tell for sure, but don’t be surprised if the 2025 Grammys are good for Grande. Worst case scenario, it looks like she’s on track for a couple of general field nominations, and she could perhaps match or surpass her own biggest nomination haul (six) for “Thank U, Next” in 2020. Certainly, whatever the outcome ends up being, the fact that Grande is back to being a contender after such a messy couple of years is a win in itself; other artists have fared much worse.

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