2024 Tony Awards nominations: What shows are up (‘Hell’s Kitchen’) and down (‘The Notebook’) in the musical races?

The spring season on Broadway this year is shaping up to be one of the busiest and most tumultuous in recent memory as 11 new musicals and musical revivals are opening in the last two months of the 2023-2024 Tony Awards season. With so many shows starting previews, officially opening, and even closing, the race to the Tony nominations announcement on April 30 is heating up, which means our users are frequently changing their minds on what shows will have the most success. See below for a breakdown of how our official odds have changed in 10 of the 15 musical categories since our last predictions center update on March 12, according to the 800 users currently making their picks. Scroll to the bottom of the article for a tally of nominations by show in 10 of the 15 musical categories.

UP

“Hell’s Kitchen” – This semi-autobiographical musical featuring the songs of Alicia Keys had a sluggish start in our predictions center, only slated to earn two nominations for Best Musical Book and Choreography. But it has had the biggest surge of any musical in the last week and is now predicted to receive six nominations, adding Best Musical, Actress (Maleah Joi Moon), Featured Actress (Shoshana Bean) and Featured Actor (Brandon Victor Dixon) to its prior two expected noms. The musical begins previews Mar. 28.

“Suffs” — Our users were expecting this musical about the title suffragettes to earn three noms for Best Musical, Original Score and Musical Book. Folks now think it will add two more nominations to that total with additional bids for Best Actress (Shaina Taub, who is also the composer and librettist) and Director (Leigh Silverman).

“Days of Wine and Roses” — Despite closing at the end of March, our prognosticators are feeling increasingly strong about this intimate musical’s nominations chances. Last week, we predicted four bids for the show, including Best Musical, Actress (Kelli O’Hara), Actor (Brian d’Arcy James) and Original Score. Now we think it will land a fifth for Best Musical Book. That makes sense, since the last time composer Adam Guettel and book writer Craig Lucas collaborated on “The Light in the Piazza,” both landed nominations.

“The Who’s Tommy” — As it approaches its official opening on March 28, this revival is picking up nominations steam. We previously predicted it to earn two bids for Best Musical Revival and Choreography, and our users now think it’ll pick up a key third bid for Actor for Ali Louis Bourzgui.

WATCH 2024 Tony Awards slugfest: ‘Illinoise’ throws musical predictions into disarray

DOWN

“The Notebook” — While in previews, this stage adaptation of the novel and film of the same name had tremendous wind in its sails, predicted to earn seven nominations for Best Musical, Actress (Joy Woods), Actor (Ryan Vasquez), Featured Actress (Maryann Plunkett), Director (Michael Greif and Schele Williams), Original Score and Musical Book. After opening to tepid reviews, though, our users have soured on its prospects, dropping its haul from seven to three. We think it’ll just hold onto its bids for Featured Actress for Plunkett, Original Score and Musical Book.

“Lempicka” — On the heels of this musical’s first preview performance on March 19, our users have only slightly adjusted our expectations for its nominations tally, down by one. We previously thought it would garner seven bids for Best Musical, Actress (Eden Espinosa), Featured Actress (Beth Leavel), Featured Actor (Andrew Samonsky), Director (Rachel Chavkin), Original Score and Musical Book. Our users now think it’ll earn six, dropping past Tony Award winner Leavel from our expected Featured Actress lineup.

“Back to the Future: The Musical” — The design categories are not yet included in our predictions center (those will come once nominations are announced), and those are the places where this screen-to-stage adaptation will probably excel. Our prognosticators thought it would land one acting nom in Best Featured Actor for past Tony winner Roger Bart, but he has fallen out of the top five in the category.

“Once Upon a One More Time” — This shuttered Britney Spears jukebox musical was looking at a single nom for Best Choreography according to our odds, but it has slipped out of our predicted lineup.

“The Outsiders” — This stage adaptation of the novel and film of the same name is just starting to build buzz during its preview period, but our predictors feel less confident about it earning a bid for Best Musical Book than they once did and now have it netting no nominations, but it is still early enough to catch on with nominators in this and other categories if it opens to strong reviews on April 11.

SEE Can ‘Merrily We Roll Along’ claim a trio of acting wins at the 2024 Tony Awards?

FLAT

“Here Lies Love” — This closed musical has remained steady with five anticipated nominations, though our users have rethought which five it will earn. We previously predicted it would get recognition in Best Musical, Actress (Arielle Jacobs), Featured Actor (Conrad Ricamora), Director (Alex Timbers) and Original Score. We still think it will net five, but our predictors have dropped actress Jacobs and added Choreography.

There are even more musicals and musical revivals that have stayed steady during this hectic spring period of the Broadway season. Those are “Cabaret” with six predicted noms, “Merrily We Roll Along” with five, and “Gutenberg! The Musical!,” “Harmony,” “Monty Python’s Spamalot,” “The Wiz” and “Water for Elephants” all with one each.

Nominations Predictions

Cabaret — 6
Hell’s Kitchen — 6
Lempicka — 6
Days of Wine and Roses — 5
Here Lies Love — 5
Merrily We Roll Along — 5
Suffs — 5
The Notebook — 3
The Who’s Tommy — 3
Gutenberg! The Musical! — 1
Harmony — 1
Monty Python’s Spamalot — 1
The Wiz — 1
Water for Elephants — 1

This tally of total nominations by show does not include the five categories of Orchestrations, Scenic Design, Costume Design, Lighting Design and Sound Design.

PREDICT the 2024 Tony Awards nominations through April 30

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