Talking Potential Guardians’ Extensions

The Guardians are reportedly talking to players about extensions

Zack Meisel of the Athletic reported earlier this week that the Guardians are rumored to be talking to players about extensions. I encourage you to read Meisel’s always excellent work, but, meanwhile, I’d like to take a look at some names who may be under consideration.

The Candidates Most Likely Under Discussion:

Steven Kwan, 26 years old, under team control through 2027 - We know that the Guardians and Kwan talked extension last season. Because of a leaked journal page from Kwan, we even have an idea of potential numbers. It’s fair to wonder if a bit of a sophomore slump from Kwan may have made him more amenable to something like 7 years and $56 million? Personally, I would sign up for that, but I don’t think I’d be interested in much more than $10 million in average annual value in an extension.

I suspect that Kwan will want to prove to the team that he is more 2022 than 2023 before revisiting extension talks. From talks around his hitting approach this spring, he appears to be still trying to show he can be a 10-12 homer a year guy which would really help his chances at a better deal if he can pull it off. I also still wonder if there’s a chance he is move to centerfield depending on roster construction choices in the future, which would increase his future payday and give him some leverage.

Tanner Bibee, 25 years old, under team control through 2028 - Aside from an excellent rookie season enabling him to earn an extra year of control back from the Guardians, Bibee obviously has the kind of mature, growth-mindset Cleveland values in pitchers.

With the volatility of pitching value, the Guardians should be able to offer a deal that provides Bibee security and buys out a year or two of free agency, perhaps including a couple opt-outs, that would make sense for both sides. Something like 7/$77 probably makes sense for Bibee, but I’m sure Cleveland would try for something less with incentives and opt-outs.

Young Guys To Bet On:

Bo Naylor, 24 years old, under team control through 2029 - Offering extended, major league deals to this category of players would have two benefits to the Guardians: 1. Controlling arbitration costs, and 2. potentially buying a year or two of free agency for an elite talent the franchise would be unable to afford on the open market. In my case, I have seen enough of Bo Naylor to say, “Keep him here until he’s 33. I think we’ve got an average defensive catcher who will be a good enough hitter to be a multiple-time all-star.” But, it’s certainly worth noting that there isn’t enough sample size to establish this value definitively and catchers are prone to injuries. Those factors are the reasons Bo and his agent may want to secure a contract now rather than play without one and potentially increase his future earnings. If I were the Guardians, I’d be seeing if an 8/$72 million deal (with incentives for all-star game appearances) sounds attractive to the younger Naylor brother.

Chase DeLauter, 22 years old, yet to debut for the Guardians - The Guardians have not dipped their toes into the “extend a top prospect prior to his debut” waters, but there’s a reason why small-market teams like Milwaukee have done it recently. If you’re convinced that DeLauter IS the all-star hitting outfielder he looks like he might become, the best way to keep him through his peak in Cleveland is to offer him something similar to the Jackson Chourio 8/$82 million guaranteed deal he got before debuting. If you end up with a 5-6 win player in DeLauter, getting him to his age 30 or 31 season is immense, immense value and a lot of certainty to pass up for a player who has had foot injuries and hasn’t taken a major league at-bat. I truly do not expect this to happen, but I find it strange that Zack Meisel seemed to be met with incredulity, recently, when asking Front Office executives about the potential of this kind of deal. In rare cases like DeLauter’s, it seems like this kind of deal would make a ton of sense for both sides.

Kyle Manzardo, 23 years old, yet to debut for the Guardians - Similarly to DeLauter, a Manzardo contract would be a recognition of the immense skill he has displayed as a hitter in the minor leagues. The contract for Manzardo should be less expensive than one of DeLauter as Manzardo is defensively limited to first base (and looks at best average there), he has shown some platoon limitations, and his power doesn’t jump off the screen. However, there is clearly potential for Manzardo to be a 120-130 wRC+ bat which are few and far between in the Guardians’ system. 8 years and $56 million would be pretty hard to pass up for Manzardo, I think, but, again, I don’t expect the Guardians to pursue it.

Under the Radar Candidates:

Tyler Freeman, 24 years old, under team control through 2028 - It’s very disappointing that the camp virus has derailed Freeman’s great spring but I think he has shown the potential he has an excellent utility player for a team. This role makes him a cheap option for an extension but a chance for steady value for the team. Something like the Myles’ Straw $5 million a year special and buying him out through 2030 would be a surprise but also something I’d support. It’s just that left shoulder having two surgeries that would give me pause.

Scott Barlow, 31 years old, under team control through 2024 - The Guardians clearly like Barlow given he take up the most money on their payroll of any one player they added this offseason. I could see a scenario where Barlow, as a reliever in his 30’s, would be interested in a two year extension for $12-14 million, and the team might think his offspeed heavy repertoire has a good chance of holding up in value.

My Heart Wants What My Heart Wants:

Josh Naylor, 26 years old, under team control through 2025 - Look, before you start in on me, I understand that Naylor had a traumatic ankle injury, that he’s limited to first base/DH, and that his suddenly apparent skills against LHP are no sure thing. As evidence for the defense, I’d like to present the following posts:

I cannot imagine a better player to provide leadership on a young team than Josh Naylor. I believe in his combination of batter’s eye, aggression and elite contact skills as something that has good potential to be valuable late in his career. I also think there will be a slight discount for him to continue to play with his brother in an organization that has allowed his youngest brother, Myles, to train and hang out with the two of them, also. The Athletic recently suggested 5 years and $55 million, but I’d even go 6 years and $72 million myself. I suspect something in between those numbers would get it done, maybe including an opt-out and incentives. I can’t say this is likely, but I do believe that the Guardians see an intangible worth on Josh Naylor’s presence on the team that many undervalue.

Triston McKenzie, 26 years old, under team control through 2026 - I recognize that McKenzie has too much injury risk to probably be seriously considered for an extension. Reports were that McKenzie and the team were close to an extension last offseason (one built on incentives and opt-outs) before injuries derailed talks. I would still be very interested in revisiting that concept - with said incentives and opt-outs - to potentially keep McKenzie in Cleveland into his early 30’s. His work ethic and character are unquestioned, and he is just one of the most entertaining pitchers to watch in the game. I’d offer 4 years and $32 million guaranteed and a player opt-out years for year five, as well as incentives for player performance.

Shane Bieber, 28 years old, under team control through 2024 - In a shock-the-world outcome that would be driven by the presence of future majority owner David Blitzer, extending Bieber is admittedly a ship that has 99% sailed. But, hey, if Santa Blitzer wants to show up and offer a 7 year $100 million deal to Bieber, you can’t tell me he wouldn’t give it serious consideration. I just firmly believe in Bieber’s ability to remain a good pitcher even when his stuff diminishes because he has done it the past two years, and so far it looks like he’s found some of his missing velo and his curveball so there may be a prime Bieber year or two left in his tank. I know this isn’t going to happen, but, hey, a Guardians’ fan can dream.

Predictions: Lately, the Guardians have managed to get a spring extension done just about every year. So, if I had to guess, I think they get a Kluber/Carrasco type extension done with Tanner Bibee by the time we get to the Home Opener. We will see!