Next Up - Vermont In Duke’s NCAA Opener

Duke is favored but Vermont could be a tough out.

Date 3/22 || Time 7:10 || Venue Barclays Center || Video CBS

Duke opens NCAA play with Vermont on Friday. The Catamounts are a popular choice for an upset pick in some quarters. Could Vermont pull off a stunner? Well, they nearly did in Cameron in 2013: Rodney Hood hit a free throw to put Duke up by one and the Catamounts were in position to win if they had gotten a shot off. It was one of the most tense endings we’ve ever seen in Cameron.

So while much has changed since 2013, the coach of Vermont has not. It’s still John Becker and you know he’s going to relish another crack at the Blue Devils, this time in Brooklyn.

The Catamounts have only lost twice since December 22nd, one to Miami of Ohio (70-69) and once to NJIT (62-60). They’re coming into NCAA play at 19-2 since the loss to Miami.

Becker employs a deep rotation, with 10 guys getting double digit minutes. And with five seniors and three juniors, he has a rather significant advantage over Duke’s still-young team.

But Duke has a big size advantage. Kyle Filipowski is 7-0, Ryan Young is 6-10, while Mark Mitchell, Sean Stewart and TJ Power are all 6-9.

Becker has two 6-9 players but one, Noah Barnett, appears to be redshirting, and the other, Seth Joba, only plays 7.5 mpg.

The main bigs are Nick Fiorillo (SR), Matt Veretto (SR) and Ileri Aye-Faleye (JR), all 6-8.

In Vermont’s last game, for the American East championship over UMass-Lowell, Becker started Ayo-Faleye, Fiorillo, and three guards, TJ Long (JR), Shamir Bogues (JR) and Aaron Deloney (SR).

Long and Bogues are both 6-4 while Deloney is 6-0. Duke counters that trio with Tyrese Proctor, Jared McCain and Jeremy Roach.

Long leads the team in scoring at 12.2 ppg. He transferred in from Fairfield. Bogues, a Texan, started at Tarleton State, where he played for Billy Clyde Gillispie.

Deloney is a fifth-year point guard and that’s concerning. You can look at him - at Vermont in general - and say, well, they’re Vermont. It’s not like they’re, say, Virginia Tech. The Hokies had a middling season in the ACC, but they were still competitive.

But a guy with a half-decade of experience? That’s a serious weapon for Becker and that’s something that Duke can’t match.

By the way, we mentioned Virginia Tech specifically because the Hokies and Catamounts played this season and we’re guessing that’s a tape that Duke has been watching. The Hokies won that game, 73-51, but it was in Cassell.

Virginia Tech limited Vermont to 17 in the first half and the Catamounts didn’t get a point until the 16:36 mark and didn’t score again until there was 7:08 left in the first half.

But they found their groove in the second and were outscored just 37-34 there.

Center Lynne Kidd, a good but not great college basketball player, had 17 points and 11 rebounds.

For what it’s worth, Vermont hit 4-20 from behind the line and 21-57 overall.

We mention it because the three point shot can be a great equalizer and Vermont is a fairly average three point shooting team: Sam Alamutu hits 37.5 percent, Long is close behind at 37 percent and six players shoot between 30.5 and 36 percent.

That obviously doesn't preclude someone getting freakishly hot as we see periodically. It’s hard to know who might be a great streak shooter.

Bogues is the leading rebounder at 5.3 per game and Long is the leading scorer at 12.2 ppg. and Deloney is the leading assist man at 3.0 per game. Seven guys average at least seven points so it’s hard to ignore anyone.

Vermont has worked the portal well - Bogues, Long, Jace Roquemore, Ayo-Faleye, Veretto and Jace Roquemore all came to Burlington via transfers.

Interestingly, Veretto hadn’t played in three years when Vermont pursued him. He’s also getting past a shoulder injury. He’s a more dangerous three point shooter than he showed this season, too, so keep an eye on that.

Vermont’s defense is really the key to the program. The Catamounts only allow 63 ppg which is ninth nationally.

Part of this is because the players are experienced, and as we said, this is something that is an advantage for Vermont. How often this season have we seen Duke’s young players react uncertainly to a situation? It’s not that they’re not talented or well coached. They’re just young.

And that’s a real concern in this game. Vermont is less talented and an underdog. However, they play well together, they seem to like each other (and by the way, Ayo-Faleye seems like a very likable and selfless guy) and they take pride in their defense.

This is a very coherent and well-coached team.

Duke will obviously be favored, but good defense and, say, Veretto getting hot from three point range, and the momentum could change quite rapidly.

So to get back to the question we started with: could Vermont pull off a stunner? They could.

But if Duke takes full advantage of its strengths here - size and athleticism - and defends hard, it’ll be harder for the Catamounts to do it.